Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[brucejoel99]

Ukraine is and has always been the rightful property of Russia.

On what basis? By that logic, most of Europe is the rightful property of Italy, half of the world - including Russia & Eastern Europe themselves - is the rightful property of Mongolia, & the U.S. is the rightful property of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth. Once a place you own has broken off into its own thing, there's no "1 free undo" card that you get to invoke 30 years later.

[brucejoel99]

I thought it was twitter propaganda but wow this seems to be going into Winter war 2.0 which would be impressive considering Ukraines terrain is much worse to defend than Finland.

Genuinely asking, can Ukraine actually win this thing? Or are they just gonna make sh*t suck for the VDV while still not being able to successfully hold back all of the mechanized battalions?

[brucejoel99]

Would it be legal for an American to go to Ukraine and fight? I heard Zelensky is providing arms to those who go to Ukraine to fight, I just want to know legality.

U.S. , 163 U.S. 632 (1896), the Supreme Court endorsed a lower court ruling that it was not a crime under U.S. law for an individual to go abroad for the purpose of enlisting in a foreign army

Thank you! I’ll spend Spring Break (week after this) with my mother and discuss this, in the mean time I can probably plan travel for a city in Poland and then take transit to get to the border, but I have time to plan.

Do note, however, that if one accepts a promotion to serve as an officer in a foreign military, then they'll have implicitly consented to a relinquishing of their American citizenship, which the Court ruled in Afroyim v. Rusk (1967) as constituting legitimate constitutional grounds to involuntarily strip an American citizen of their citizenship under the 14th Amendment.

ALSO note: I am NOT a lawyer & what I have written does NOT in any way constitute legitimate legal advice, as it's meant for purely explanatory purposes only; seriously, guy, pls don't go get yourself killed based on what a rando netizen said.

[brucejoel99]

I've seen a lot of posts and articles talking about how outmatched Ukraine is in terms of personnel, equipment, and funding. This CNN post, for example, discusses how Russia's military budget eclipses Ukraine's by a factor of ten to one.

However, doesn't this overlook some pretty basic logistical differences? First and most obvious, Ukraine does not have a nuclear weapons program to maintain. Also, Russia is currently maintaining other military sites across Eurasia while a fraction of its army faces literally the entire army of Ukraine. The statistics about vehicles are also pretty scary, but even so, tanks and trucks are only useful so long as you can guarantee them a steady supply of gasoline. The air force comparison is also overwhelming though, which makes it surprising that Russia hasn't been able to obtain total air control yet.

I sincerely hope I underestimated Ukraine at the outset of this war. I didn't realize they actually have one of the higher military budgets in Europe.

Something to consider when talking about Russian equipment is that Russia, due to it’s status as the arms supplier of choice for everyone the Western world won’t sell to, tends to inflate their capabilities while Western nations tend be deliberately very vague about what their new equipment can do so that competitors can’t bench mark it. Rule of thumb, anything American, French, or German is better than publicly available sources say and anything Russian is worse than public sources say.

Of course that may not really apply here since both sides are largely fighting with the same stuff.

The other factor at play here is that Russia, even though the regional forces they have deployed look overwhelming, does not seem to have the capacity to deploy them all at once. EG their air forces look vastly superior but it may be that simply can’t don’t have the fuel, parts, and mechanics to keep all that many flying. Plus, they seem to have failed to clear Ukrainian air defenses also seem to have largely survived the initial wave of strikes (lack of precision motions?).

With the numbers, it’s unlikely Ukraine can hold out, but it’s looking allot bloodier and allot longer than it did on paper.

Something else to consider further still are the unconfirmed rumors that the war is apparently costing Russia $10 billion/day & that their weapons & ammunitions stockpiles aren't expected to last them very long, with the Russians only having about 3-4 days' worth of cruise missiles left before they'll lose their ability to strike past the frontline. If those are the kinds of supply issues that Russia is really facing, then Ukraine realistically has to only make it about 2 weeks before Russia will - both economically (i.e., if the oligarchs really do bankroll Putin & start running out of money) & due to a further impending lack of resources since the Russian military clearly isn't as great as everybody thought that it was - need to enter negotiations, & honestly, I think that they could make it that long so long as the West steps up their support.

[brucejoel99]

It's clear the political need to achieve quick victory (the longer the war goes on, the harder it is to hide the costs from the public) simply did not meet the capabilities of the Russian army, or at least the forces deployed at the Ukrainian border. I don't think the Russians are playing tactical 3D chess waiting for the moment to send in the "A team" forces. They simply either expected very little resistance or were caught off guard by the West's response to Putin's threats and had to assemble an invasion force and formulate plan of attack at the last minute.

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1497788908037459973?s=20&t=szOuVvmSN6wuuB9kY8c_3Q

Yeah, honestly, I haven't seen a reasonable explanation for the Russian stupidity other than massive overconfidence.

[brucejoel99]

I'm curious about the possibility of non-nuclear NATO intervention? Say, the Spanish, Canadians, Polish, & Baltics going into Ukraine while the Americans, British, & French just lurk nearby in Poland. After all, Article 5 only exists for defensive initiation, so involving the nuclear card won't be required unless Putin provoked us into it by directly attacking NATO soil.

[brucejoel99]

If the EU's Ukrainian assistance includes access to NATO's air-to-air weapons systems, then tonight is gonna be a very bad night to be a Belarusian paratrooper.

[brucejoel99]

Retired Gen. Philip Breedlove on a no-fly zone. He supports it, but finds it unlikely to happen. Breedlove was Supreme Allied Commander Europe 2013-2016.

https://twitter.com/ak_mack/status/1498081883149807621

Wouldn’t an NFZ mean conventional fighting between NATO and Russian forces?
I want to do everything for Ukraine, but the risk of nuclear escalation from that is too great.

I’m open to calling the nuclear bluff.

Bruh:

https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1498065915665022983

[brucejoel99]

Ret. Gen. Wesley Clark just told CNN that there'll inevitably be a point where Biden will reconsider America's "no military intervention" position, which makes sense: Russia has generally been using significantly less artillery than would typically accompany their operations, but heavy artillery barrages will result in thousands upon thousands of civilian casualties, so if Putin becomes desperate enough & gets to that point, then the U.S. will likely be forced to start weighing intervention.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1498036010038480900

The Kremlin lying about their plans for this actually tracks with one of those videos of captured Russian soldiers who were claiming that this was initially just described to them as a training exercise & that they were flung into this haphazardly.

[brucejoel99]

Russian column in Melitopol. It would be a shame if the Russians ever figured out to keep their vehicles a few hundred meters apart in convoys.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498167214423396354

Standard tactical adaptation like that takes time, coordination, & communication. It'd be a challenge for any force of this size to adopt new methods in a war zone. There may be adaptation in units that've already taken losses, but many units are just being completely incapacitated through combat. Basically, few units capable of undergoing such an adaptation at this early stage are surviving, & command isn't organized enough to mitigate risks by micromanaging standardized tactics.

[brucejoel99]

Another problem for Russians.  Rasputitsa is coming up which means by late March the roads will be a lot worse which would be very bad for Russian mechanized forces. Russia has to wind up major operations in Eastern Ukraine in the next 3 weeks.

The Economist ran an article on rasputitsa back in the first week of February, which concluded that the mud would raise the difficulty of Russian advancement, but would not be enough to prevent a (then still theoretical) invasion.

That was before the slightly shoddy nature of some Russian tactics and equipment was shown on the battlefield though, so it definitely won’t help matters.

As with a lot of things, I wonder whether rasputitsa serves almost as much value as a morale tool as an actual impediment. If there’s only a three week window, that gives Ukraine a potential end-date to fight towards (good for morale), and puts more pressure on Moscow to make a decision about what can (and now can’t) be achieved in the next 3 weeks.

Emphasis on the bolded: I saw a pic earlier of an abandoned Russian tank in Ukraine, & what are supposed to be pieces of reactive armor on its exterior instead appear to be pieces of plywood. If that's janky, then presume that everything is.

[brucejoel99]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tvrain/status/1498319404660142084
Putin spoke with Macron According to the Kremlin, a settlement with Ukraine is possible if "taking into account the legitimate interests of Russia in the field of security":
- recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea
- demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine
- ensuring the neutral status of Ukraine

No signs of a climb down from Putin yet.

Lmao if the Russian negotiating positions are this clearly a farce, then Ukraine should demand an unconditional withdrawal, Crimea back, & reparations in return.

[brucejoel99]

Seems like light progress was made

https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1498343519609573380

I think the best case scenario for these talks is pretty much status quo ante bellum with the LPR keeping some of its gains and the North Crimean Canal remaining unobstructed.

Overall, the best case scenario for Ukraine is to hold out long enough and hope that Putin's regime collapses and in the chaos, the Ukrainians are able to retake their entire country (including Crimea). The best case scenario for Russia is collapse of the Ukrainian government and taking complete military control of the country while remaining an international pariah and dealing with a bloody insurgency. Seems to me like the Russians' best case scenario really isn't that great...

... is predicated on the fact that their leverage right now is their current restraint. The losses that Russia have taken so far have given Zelenskyy some leverage, but if Russia starts threatening heavy bombardment of urban areas, Zelenskyy knows that thousands will die, likely including himself, although both of those are further still pretty comparable in terms of net impact, meaning that Russia maintaining a degree of restraint is really rather necessitated by the situation, because at the same time, if that happens, then that's where we &/or the rest of NATO sans the U.S. might get involved: although it's hard to say where it is exactly, there's some threshold after which NATO will weigh intervention as the best option, & I think we draw the line at civilians being bombed indiscriminately (which is why Zelenskyy was smart to arm & mobilize the people: it's hard for any Russian win to not look indiscriminate if the people are the ones who are in the streets attempting to fight Russian soldiers off, which is the overlooked consideration that ultimately unraveled Russia's initial plans, to be frank). Russia's gamble right now is trying to find the pressure point that's "just right" insofar as effectively forcing Zelenskyy or his corpse to cave without spurring NATO into legitimate action, & they're certainly testing where the line is, if it even exists.

At this point they have to be doing this to mock at us: https://twitter.com/cliffordlevy/status/1498350735695790086

At the same time, the length of the convoy matters a lot less than its composition. More armor is useless without infantry support, & it's the mechanized infantry units that've been taking the heaviest losses. Motorized units, although weaker, require less fuel, & Russia needs more infantry if it has any hopes of taking control over cities. Deploying motorized brigades means that Russia is ready & willing to take heavy losses. Basically, imagine rolling into a war zone in a U-Haul.

[brucejoel99]

Wow, a Russian Il-76 is currently violating the Polish ban on Russian planes flying in its airspace. I'm tracking it now (the internet is amazing). Maybe it's purpose is to challenge NATO's authority?

<tweet snip>

If you want to track it: https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=152c98

It looks like a passenger flight to Slovakia that somehow slipped through.

It seems so, people in the comments section shared sources that showed the flight as cancelled, but I guess not. It just entered Slovakian airspace.

Apparently, that's now also wrong. It is an Il-76, but just a civilian cargo plane.

[brucejoel99]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498491928471654400

The US has solid intelligence that Putin is frustrated and expressing unusual bursts of anger at people in his inner circle over the state of the military campaign so far and the worldwide condemnation of his actions

Oh boohoo.

Tbf, this isn't just interesting because "Putin's mad." It's interesting because the West is releasing this knowing full well that it'll feed into Putin's paranoia about a rat in his inner circle. Recall, he just spent the weekend convening the top oligarchs to him at his Ural mountain lair, so at least one of said oligarchs in the room with him must not like him anymore.

[brucejoel99]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498491928471654400

The US has solid intelligence that Putin is frustrated and expressing unusual bursts of anger at people in his inner circle over the state of the military campaign so far and the worldwide condemnation of his actions

Oh boohoo.

Tbf, this isn't just interesting because "Putin's mad." It's interesting because the West is releasing this knowing full well that it'll feed into Putin's paranoia about a rat in his inner circle. Recall, he just spent the weekend convening the top oligarchs to him at his Ural mountain lair, so at least one of said oligarchs in the room with him must not like him anymore.

Or we just tapped the phones.

But please Mr. Putin, do start turning on those guys. I’m sure none of the basically mob bosses you’ve cost millions and now are physically threatening will do anything rash.

It's waaay more likely that we have an asset in play. Most of these convos wouldn't be conducted on any kind of an electric system, & any that are would obviously be heavily encrypted. Additionally, most of these oligarchs have some kind of American ties, so it wouldn't be all that difficult for our intelligence apparatus to find one who'd be willing to cooperate.

[brucejoel99]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498491928471654400

The US has solid intelligence that Putin is frustrated and expressing unusual bursts of anger at people in his inner circle over the state of the military campaign so far and the worldwide condemnation of his actions

Oh boohoo.

Tbf, this isn't just interesting because "Putin's mad." It's interesting because the West is releasing this knowing full well that it'll feed into Putin's paranoia about a rat in his inner circle. Recall, he just spent the weekend convening the top oligarchs to him at his Ural mountain lair, so at least one of said oligarchs in the room with him must not like him anymore.

Or we just tapped the phones.

But please Mr. Putin, do start turning on those guys. I’m sure none of the basically mob bosses you’ve cost millions and now are physically threatening will do anything rash.

It's waaay more likely that we have an asset in play. Most of these convos wouldn't be conducted on any kind of an electric system, & any that are would obviously be heavily encrypted. Additionally, most of these oligarchs have some kind of American ties, so it wouldn't be all that difficult for our intelligence apparatus to find one who'd be willing to cooperate.

Is it obvious, given how loose the military's infosec in the field has turned out to be?

That aside, I do agree with you that we've probably turned at least one of the oligarchs by now, in addition to any signals intelligence or bugging work going on.

Yes, high-level comms for Putin himself would always be heavily encrypted.

[brucejoel99]

British MoD intelligence update, there's less in this one than compared to previous days:

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1498551511445553158

We've never seen an advanced modern military operate without air superiority.

[brucejoel99]

British MoD intelligence update, there's less in this one than compared to previous days:

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1498551511445553158

We've never seen an advanced modern military operate without air superiority.

The most recent I can think of would be the USAF in Korea. Soviet pilots secretly began flying for the Chinese resulting in heavy American losses in the infamous "MiG Alley". But, it's a teeny stretch to call Korea a modern conflict. Maybe one of the Pakistan-India wars didn't involve one side with air superiority? I'm not sure. Even if neither nation gained air superiority, it's a questionable argument to make that they had "advanced modern" militaries.

We never held air superiority over North Vietnam, but I wouldn't even call that modern.

[brucejoel99]

Beyond parody:

https://twitter.com/Den_2042/status/1498674777032114184

Buried lede: that map clearly features a U.S. 1st Cavalry Division patch. They're at least considering American intervention.

Relatedly, the U.S. military is standing up stockpiled equipment in Europe to compose the 3rd armored brigade combat team in the region. So, along with the airborne & cavalry divisions, there's now a division's worth of U.S. armor in Europe.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/Maersk/status/1498684117290033153

[brucejoel99]

Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson will hold an extraordinary speech to the nation at 20:00 CET.

It will be about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Whether she will tell some breaking news? We will see...

Imminent NATO enlargement?

[brucejoel99]

Ukraine requesting assistance of satellite companies on real time Russian military movements per just posted Washington Post report.

[snip]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/01/russia-ukraine-war-putin-news/#link-AUGJD3RWD5EALIW4YPLYEU66RU

AKA Ukraine finding creative ways to go from asymmetric to near-peer.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1498866224125648898

A real international legion they're setting up. I hope these guys are well supplied and valued (i.e., not thrown into a meat grinder).

Somebody can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that they may very well be the first active Japanese soldiers in combat since August 1945 (or, to be pedantically specific, since Mr. Onoda returned to Japan)? IIRC, there were JSDF peacekeepers in Baghdad in '05, but I don't recall ever hearing of them in combat (but, of course, that doesn't eliminate the possibility).