Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The Bayraktar TB2 drone has proven highly effective in Ukraine. Analysts like Oryxspioenkop believe they had around 20 units delivered at the start of the conflict (collectively, they ordered 60 in 2019 and 2020). Ukraine also had orders for the newer and larger Bayraktar Akinci, although none have been delivered yet.

TuAF flights to Poland in the last week have been left unexplained, as Turkey is not supplying Ukraine with military aid. However - and take this with a grain of salt - the Ukranian Defence Minister has claimed the country has now received more TB2s: https://www.twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1498971260834959361
Given that they had already been ordered, this would not qualify as military aid. However, I wonder whether they are being sent to Ukraine ahead of schedule/if Turkey is giving from its own stock instead of waiting for the production line. The Ukranian conflict has done wonders for the TB2’s reputation and the Ukranian government is the only manufacturer of the engines needed for the Akinci.

I shall update this thread if and when Turkey responds to the claim or confirmation of new TB2s is found by some other means.

[Yoda]

"the 2nd best army in the world"

https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1498943189138685952?s=20&t=XVrdRV54sk...

If Russia didn't have nukes we could have them in the Stone Age in a week, jfc.

Maybe they are bluffing about their nukes LOL

Putin's bluffing about using them, but too many people think he's serious.

[Logical]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-12

• Russian forces are setting conditions to envelop Kyiv from the west and attempting to open up a new axis of attack from the east that would let them encircle the capital. It is unclear if Russia has sufficient combat power to complete such an encirclement and hold it against Ukrainian counter-attacks.
• Russian forces will likely launch a renewed ground offensive to seize Kharkiv following the air/artillery/missile attack it has been conducting in the past 24 hours.
• Russian and Russian proxy forces will likely solidify the “land bridge” linking Rostov-on-Don with Crimea, allowing Russian forces to move more rapidly from Rostov to reinforce efforts further west.
  
• Russia’s successful seizure of Kherson city may allow Russian forces to resume their interrupted drive toward Mykolayiv and Odessa.
• Belarusian forces have likely entered the war on Russia’s side despite denials by the Belarusian president.

[Person Man]

"the 2nd best army in the world"

https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1498943189138685952?s=20&t=XVrdRV54sk...

If Russia didn't have nukes we could have them in the Stone Age in a week, jfc.

It’s like that Mel Gibson alien movie.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

How the Russian monarchist scene outside of Vladimir Zhirinovsky on the days he claim to be a monarchist.

Not sure if this helps, but the House of Romanov officially condemns the invasion of Ukraine.

[Aurelius]

"the 2nd best army in the world"

https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1498943189138685952?s=20&t=XVrdRV54sk...

If Russia didn't have nukes we could have them in the Stone Age in a week, jfc.

Maybe they are bluffing about their nukes LOL

Putin's bluffing about using them, but too many people think he's serious.

An extremely risky bluff to call.

[Serenity Now]

https://twitter.com/LawDavF/status/1498981094108155911?s=20&t=8Y08QhXjCQtzsc...

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The thing with the invasion of Iraq was the coalition was being methodical and cautious to avoid causalities.  The coalition suffered 11 killed in the battle of Basra, 2 vehicles destroyed (friendly fire), nothing captured.  Very clear contrast to what's going on in Ukraine right now.

That's the rub: it might not look like it to us, but Russis really is conscious about limiting civilian casualties in this campaign.

That's been the main question/concern for me the past 48 hours or so. It's clear the West is intent on applying the full barrage of sanctions and the Ukrainian resistance is hardening by the minute... so what purpose do these self-imposed limits serve?

In my opinion, I think the Russians are in a severely precious position regarding buy-in about the mission objective and that's impacting overall morale. It's clear that the Russian military leadership did not reveal the "true" mission to the rank and file until the 1-2 weeks prior to the invasion. Even then, from what I've heard, I believe the Russian officer corps 'justified' their "special operation" to their own conscripts as sort of a "peacekeeping" mission and that's how they procured overall subservience to the initial mission.

The problem with that approach is that it's hard to keep up these pretenses once you start leveling whole blocks of civilian apartments. What kind of "peacekeeping" mission is that? Mass desertion or revolt may occur if the Russian leadership decides to unleash their entire arsenal on their fellow Slavs.

Of course, I could be wrong. The Russian military have proven themselves incompetent time and time again over the past several days. I guess we'll have to wait and see unfortunately.  

I think that may be part of it, but I doubt it's the whole explanation for the (now very much vanishing) "restraint" Russian forces have shown. Putin's intent is very clearly to seize and permanently occupy Ukraine. Occupying a wrecked land full of people who hate you because you killed their neighbors is a massive drain on resources. (My current guess is that's more or less what an occupation will get the Kremlin anyway, but Putin has pretty clearly been looking at this through fun-house glasses, so who know what he thinks.)

[Illiniwek]

How the Russian monarchist scene outside of Vladimir Zhirinovsky on the days he claim to be a monarchist.

If this helps, the House of Romanov officially condemns the invasion of Ukraine.

Pro-monarchist coup!!! Yes… ha ha ha… YES!

[Storebought]

The thing with the invasion of Iraq was the coalition was being methodical and cautious to avoid causalities.  The coalition suffered 11 killed in the battle of Basra, 2 vehicles destroyed (friendly fire), nothing captured.  Very clear contrast to what's going on in Ukraine right now.

That's the rub: it might not look like it to us, but Russis really is conscious about limiting civilian casualties in this campaign.

That's been the main question/concern for me the past 48 hours or so. It's clear the West is intent on applying the full barrage of sanctions and the Ukrainian resistance is hardening by the minute... so what purpose do these self-imposed limits serve?

In my opinion, I think the Russians are in a severely precious position regarding buy-in about the mission objective and that's impacting overall morale. It's clear that the Russian military leadership did not reveal the "true" mission to the rank and file until the 1-2 weeks prior to the invasion. Even then, from what I've heard, I believe the Russian officer corps 'justified' their "special operation" to their own conscripts as sort of a "peacekeeping" mission and that's how they procured overall subservience to the initial mission.

The problem with that approach is that it's hard to keep up these pretenses once you start leveling whole blocks of civilian apartments. What kind of "peacekeeping" mission is that? Mass desertion or revolt may occur if the Russian leadership decides to unleash their entire arsenal on their fellow Slavs.

Of course, I could be wrong. The Russian military have proven themselves incompetent time and time again over the past several days. I guess we'll have to wait and see unfortunately.  

I think that may be part of it, but I doubt it's the whole explanation for the (now very much vanishing) "restraint" Russian forces have shown. Putin's intent is very clearly to seize and permanently occupy Ukraine. Occupying a wrecked land full of people who hate you because you killed their neighbors is a massive drain on resources. (My current guess is that's more or less what an occupation will get the Kremlin anyway, but Putin has pretty clearly been looking at this through fun-house glasses, so who know what he thinks.)

Putin decided to 'escalate' -- revert to Russian norms -- due to the sanctions, which he thinks are an escalation in itself.

And 150000 troops is not enough to occupy a country the scale and population of Ukraine.

A strong possibility is that if/when Kyiv is taken, Russia will recognize some puppet military regime who will conduct the irregular warfare itself. With Russia's 'brotherly' assistance.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Soviet T34 tanks of the 3rd Guards Tank Army on the streets of Lviv

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1499023988701466626

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Soviet T34 tanks of the 3rd Guards Tank Army on the streets of Lviv

For a minute, I thought Ukraine had brought T-34s back into service. The Donetsk proxies used at least one.

[Helsinkian]

Some of the people Putin claims to be "denazifying":

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1499002756073496577

[WMS]

This is vital information for the Scarsdale Currency Corporation!

https://twitter.com/infoalternat/status/1498987674337689600?s=21

[Sir Mohamed]

Really impressive what kind of resistance Ukrainians are pulling together here. That said, I expect the Russian to move ahead with even more brutality, as Putler has no real option here other than caving, what he's not going to do. My concern is that it will get so worse and NATO feels compelled to step in. If mass civilian slaughterings happen or chemical weapons are used, there's a very red line crossed.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

How the Russian monarchist scene outside of Vladimir Zhirinovsky on the days he claim to be a monarchist.

If this helps, the House of Romanov officially condemns the invasion of Ukraine.

Pro-monarchist coup!!! Yes… ha ha ha… YES!

Should Putin be ousted, I think there are 2 options. Take this with a grain of salt though.

A) Restoring the Romanovs to the throne

B) Zyuganov resurrects the R.S.F.S.R.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

C) Blursed Mladorossi compromise

[Zanas]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-12

snip

snip

Hey awesome maps, where are they from ? I can't seem to find them on the site you linked, which is also brilliant btw

[Person Man]

How the Russian monarchist scene outside of Vladimir Zhirinovsky on the days he claim to be a monarchist.

If this helps, the House of Romanov officially condemns the invasion of Ukraine.

Pro-monarchist coup!!! Yes… ha ha ha… YES!

Should Putin be ousted, I think there are 2 options. Take this with a grain of salt though.

A) Restoring the Romanovs to the throne

B) Zyuganov resurrects the R.S.F.S.R.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

C) Blursed Mladorossi compromise

I think the MI6, CIA, and other international secret police try to find a controllable oligarch to fill in the role. The best realistic bet would maybe to try 1992 over again. Maybe do it right this time and maybe consider a constitutional monarchy restoration.

[AndyHogan14]

Seeing some people commenting on Twitter (so take this with a HUGE grain of salt), that it is (was?) Russia's plan to reinstall Yanukovych as president of whatever is left of Ukraine after all of this. The Russians cannot possibly be **that** stupid, right? It's one thing to put someone in power from the opposition that people do not have any real strong feelings towards, but that guy? If Yanukovych is eventually reinstalled, he wouldn't last a year.

[Sir Mohamed]

Seeing some people commenting on Twitter (so take this with a HUGE grain of salt), that it is (was?) Russia's plan to reinstall Yanukovych as president of whatever is left of Ukraine after all of this. The Russians cannot possibly be **that** stupid, right? It's one thing to put someone in power from the opposition that people do not have any real strong feelings towards, but that guy? If Yanukovych is eventually reinstalled, he wouldn't last a year.

Well, Putin has already disproven that he's this great strategic mind many assumed for a long time. Especially with how poorly the ground war is going. So another strategic error like this wouldn't surprise me at all. No more.

[Boobs]

https://twitter.com/joelmgunter/status/1499020076913250309?s=20&t=Pu9hb-YywT...

Russians have been shelling Mariupol for 15 or more hours, indiscriminately targeting residential districts. Hundreds of civilians believed to be dead.

This will be repeated in Kharkiv, Kyiv, and any other major city that puts up resistance. War crimes are the only strategy the Russian monsters know.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Seeing some people commenting on Twitter (so take this with a HUGE grain of salt), that it is (was?) Russia's plan to reinstall Yanukovych as president of whatever is left of Ukraine after all of this. The Russians cannot possibly be **that** stupid, right? It's one thing to put someone in power from the opposition that people do not have any real strong feelings towards, but that guy? If Yanukovych is eventually reinstalled, he wouldn't last a year.

Yanukovych has said he wants Crimea back in Ukraine. He doesn’t bow low enough to be reinstalled - I think this is clickbait.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/joelmgunter/status/1499020076913250309?s=20&t=Pu9hb-YywT...

Russians have been shelling Mariupol for 15 or more hours, indiscriminately targeting residential districts. Hundreds of civilians believed to be dead.

This will be repeated in Kharkiv, Kyiv, and any other major city that puts up resistance. War crimes are the only strategy the Russian monsters know.

The higher the costs to the Russians, the lower the eventual benefits to them. How are they going to clean up a ruin country if they have no money? Letting the Russians act like assholes might be a sort of inverse of Stalin's scorched Earth defense of the USSR.

[John Dule]

It is time to call this what it is: This is an attempt at genocide. Putin wants to eradicate the Ukrainian people, either by mass killings of civilians or the suppression of their culture.