Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[Xing]

I really have to wonder why McCready didn't talk about the election fraud more. It's literally the reason that there was a special election in the first place, and you know that if the parties were reversed, Republicans would be plastering the airwaves with ads about it (in and outside of this district) for years. Maybe this district just was too Republican for him to win, even against flawed candidates, but looking back I really wonder if his strategy was the best.

[538Electoral]

A great night indeed.

[ElectionsGuy]

This poll sucked.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It's now official. McCready improves from his 2018 result in suburban Mecklenburg (Bishop's home turf!) and does roughly the same in suburban Union County. But he does worse overall due to a total collapse in the rural areas, losing two rural counties he carried in 2018 and nearly losing one he carried by 15 points (!) in 2018!

Politician, Zaybay, and everyone else who insists there will be a rural surge for the Democrats in 2020 must be reeling right now.

Yeah this was 2016 and 2018 trends on steroids lol. I was expecting erosion in Robeson and the other rurals, but not this bad. On the bright side, if a statewide Dem is doing that well in metro Charlotte the state should be a tossup still.

[RI]

This poll sucked.

Well, they basically did no weighting, so there's that.

[Tender Branson]

This sucks.

Who would have thought that McCready implodes so badly in the rural areas ?

[longtimelurker]

If Dems can come anywhere near this close in the Presidential race in NC-09 next year, they’ll win the state easily, right?

Correct, but that's not going to happen considering these are very different elections (and electorates).

That district is not going to get better for Trump and will in fact get worse.

 
It will when we have somebody to run against. You put a Bernie or Warren and you’ll lose more bigly

Dan McCready was a solid candidate in terms of resume, background, ideology, and funding.

Bernie, Warren, and heck many of the other Democratic Presidential contenders probably WON'T do as well as McCready.

This assumes that Trump does at least as well as Bishop.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This sucks.

Who would have thought that McCready implodes so badly in the rural areas ?

Actually...

[Mr. Smith]

Except for Bladen, not surprised [I believe I thought it'd be Bishop +0.9, but I had specific numbers here earlier around this range...I'mma gonna look for those]. I completely logged off from this election awhile ago.

The hurricane pretty much ensured this would happen.

That said, how many votes are left in those Mecklenburg precincts?

[IceSpear]

It's now official. McCready improves from his 2018 result in suburban Mecklenburg (Bishop's home turf!) and does roughly the same in suburban Union County. But he does worse overall due to a total collapse in the rural areas, losing two rural counties he carried in 2018 and nearly losing one he carried by 15 points (!) in 2018!

Politician, Zaybay, and everyone else who insists there will be a rural surge for the Democrats in 2020 must be reeling right now.

Yeah this was 2016 and 2018 trends on steroids lol. I was expecting erosion in Robeson and the other rurals, but not this bad. On the bright side, if a statewide Dem is doing that well in metro Charlotte the state should be a tossup still.

I think it's fairly obvious at this point (well, it already was really) that 2020 is going to be a cage match between the rural vs. urban/suburban swings. The former won the day in 2016 and the latter in 2018, so it's best two out of three. lol

[Zaybay]

It's now official. McCready improves from his 2018 result in suburban Mecklenburg (Bishop's home turf!) and does roughly the same in suburban Union County. But he does worse overall due to a total collapse in the rural areas, losing two rural counties he carried in 2018 and nearly losing one he carried by 15 points (!) in 2018!

Politician, Zaybay, and everyone else who insists there will be a rural surge for the Democrats in 2020 must be reeling right now.

Surprised that you semi-remember that(I believe I only said there would be a large swing towards the Ds in rurals compared to 2016, which there were, including in this district), though at this point the evidence is pretty obvious that, while there was a sort-of dead cat bounce in rurals for the Democrats, its neither noticeable nor really important when compared with the more urban metro trends.

Edit: Also, if you want to compare to 2016, the rurals swung more D than the Urban metro.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1171611976100917248

Dan Bishop was never ever down by 17 points

[Pericles]

I really have to wonder why McCready didn't talk about the election fraud more. It's literally the reason that there was a special election in the first place, and you know that if the parties were reversed, Republicans would be plastering the airwaves with ads about it (in and outside of this district) for years. Maybe this district just was too Republican for him to win, even against flawed candidates, but looking back I really wonder if his strategy was the best.

If he did that then he'd probably have lost anyway and there'd be lots of takes about how he should have talked about 'kitchen table issues' that matter in people's lives like healthcare. People wouldn't have changed their minds based on it, and while Trump and Republicans like whining about rigged elections lots this isn't some clearly beneficial strategy for them. McCready did fine, this wasn't a bad result overall (given this is in line with a good national environment for Democrats like 2018), but yeah this district had a heavy Republican lean and that decided the result.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

That said, how many votes are left in those Mecklenburg precincts?

If you assume the current margin holds McCready would net fewer than 300 votes in Mecklenburg outstanding. He's done.

[ltomlinson31]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1171617449504051200

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1171619590964744192

[AngryBudgie]

I had to register because i wanted to comment on this. XD

Yes, McCready did worse in rural areas, some of which is circumstantial(large swing against him from native american voters and lower African American turnout). But on the whole, i think the clearest message here is that the national enviorment right now still looks very similar to the national enviorment from 2018. That should worry the GOP. Trump barely won in a D+2 enviroment. If the national enviorment is anything close to 2018, say D+6 or 7, then he wont win re-election. That said, he could very well recover, or his opponent could turn out to be as unpopular as Hillary was. Still, any GOP congressman or woman who was thinking about retiring before wont feel any better about there odds tonight.

As for NC-3. I'm not sure theres anything to be drawn from here. Walter Jones ran unopposed in 2018, i think thats all that need to be said about that.

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1171611976100917248

Dan Bishop was never ever down by 17 points

The expectations game at work, ladies and gentlemen.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Anyone know what happens with Bishop's seat now?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Anyone know what happens with Bishop's seat now?

No special. Just a caretaker chosen by the local party I think. McCready does live here though, so I say he should go for it in 2020. Should be a pretty easy win for him

[I Can Now Die Happy]

I had to register because i wanted to comment on this. XD

Yes, McCready did worse in rural areas, some of which is circumstantial(large swing against him from native american voters and lower African American turnout). But on the whole, i think the clearest message here is that the national enviorment right now still looks very similar to the national enviorment from 2018. That should worry the GOP. Trump barely won in a D+2 enviroment. If the national enviorment is anything close to 2018, say D+6 or 7, then he wont win re-election. That said, he could very well recover, or his opponent could turn out to be as unpopular as Hillary was. Still, any GOP congressman or woman who was thinking about retiring before wont feel any better about there odds tonight.

As for NC-3. I'm not sure theres anything to be drawn from here. Walter Jones ran unopposed in 2018, i think thats all that need to be said about that.

Welcome to Atlas.

Thing is, 2018 had larger pro-D swings in specials, and McCready is a strong candidate who is likely doing quite a bit better than how the Presidential D nominee will.

I wouldn't be surprised if Trump does BETTER in the suburbs in 2020 compared to 2016, even if it isn't as good as Romney's numbers.

[Technocracy Timmy]

It's now official. McCready improves from his 2018 result in suburban Mecklenburg (Bishop's home turf!) and does roughly the same in suburban Union County. But he does worse overall due to a total collapse in the rural areas, losing two rural counties he carried in 2018 and nearly losing one he carried by 15 points (!) in 2018!

Politician, Zaybay, and everyone else who insists there will be a rural surge for the Democrats in 2020 must be reeling right now.

Surprised that you semi-remember that(I believe I only said there would be a large swing towards the Ds in rurals compared to 2016, which there were, including in this district), though at this point the evidence is pretty obvious that, while there was a sort-of dead cat bounce in rurals for the Democrats, its neither noticeable nor really important when compared with the more urban metro trends.

Edit: Also, if you want to compare to 2016, the rurals swung more D than the Urban metro.

[Tender Branson]

Everything is now counted, except the remaining absentee/provisional ballots.

Maybe McCready can net an additional 1000 votes there, out of some 4.000 that are still to come, but that’s about it.

His losing margin will then decrease from 4K to about 3K.

Also, he lost the Election Day vote by 44-55 today, after 46-52 last time.

[Tender Branson]

McCready won absentee one-stop votes with 54% this time, but only with 51% last time.

He performed worse among Election Day voters this time ...

[Tender Branson]

Relative to 2016, the margin has been cut from R+34 in NC-03 to R+24 and from R+16 in NC-09 to R+1 today.

Those are some good swings and would probably mean Trump will lose the state next year.

[ProudModerate2]

Very close.
I do feel that this could be a "sign" that trump may lose NC next year.
To be continued.