Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results) (user search)
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  Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)  (Read 167944 times)
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« on: September 10, 2019, 09:54:06 PM »
This poll sucked.
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #1 on: February 19, 2020, 02:19:27 AM »
WI-07 turnout by primary with 99% in

Republican: 76,056 (65.5%)
Democratic: 40,037 (34.5%)

The Republican one was more heavily contested, but still, that's something that doesn't look great for Democrats.
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2020, 10:05:45 PM »
Quote from: Beet on May 12, 2020, 09:38:48 PM
93% is in and only 178,000 votes. In 2018 it was 322,000 total.

That's downright amazing, considering the circumstances.
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #3 on: May 13, 2020, 12:56:33 AM »
lmao

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #4 on: May 13, 2020, 01:15:24 AM »

No, but it is funny that the narrative they tried to build up fell flat. Tiffany performed very similarly to Walker in 2018, not like Kelly or Vukmir. Underperforming Trump by a fair amount in a special election is expected in a rural Romney +2/Trump +20 type of district. These results, if you want to extrapolate them, indicate a very competitive Wisconsin in 2020, not a blue wave.
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #5 on: December 15, 2020, 02:50:07 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on May 13, 2020, 01:15:24 AM

No, but it is funny that the narrative they tried to build up fell flat. Tiffany performed very similarly to Walker in 2018, not like Kelly or Vukmir. Underperforming Trump by a fair amount in a special election is expected in a rural Romney +2/Trump +20 type of district. These results, if you want to extrapolate them, indicate a very competitive Wisconsin in 2020, not a blue wave.

These special elections back in May ended up being a pretty glaring hint about the proceeding political environment in November - a competitive election, not a blue wave. So in that way, 538 was right. Special elections in the current year do provide some insight, just not the insight they wanted.
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