Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Ouch. If Trump only wins NC-3 by 11% then he loses the state and it’s not even close

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Wait, they have black voters split 46-42 in McCready's favor?

LMAO RRH

Well Bishop isn’t only gonna win whites by 3% or else’s he’d get demolished, so it kinda balances

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

NC-9 is going to come down to Union County.   It depends if Bishop can get some where around ~63% of the vote there and if turnout there is good on election day.

If he gets 63% there he probably wins pretty easy. The question is if McCready can hit 40%. He nearly did in 2018

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This thread has me wondering. What was the most embarrassing house seat lost by dems in 2009,2010,or 2011?

I wasn’t really following politics as closely back then

The 2010 HI-01 special was pretty embarrassing and completely avoidable, but it was obviously won back in the regular election. LA-02 would top the list by far if it had taken place a month later. In the 2010 general election, one of the 60% Obama seats like IL-17 or IL-10. Democrats didn't pick up anything higher than a 54% Trump seat in 2018, just for comparison.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This thread has me wondering. What was the most embarrassing house seat lost by dems in 2009,2010,or 2011?

I wasn’t really following politics as closely back then

The 2010 HI-01 special was pretty embarrassing and completely avoidable, but it was obviously won back in the regular election. LA-02 would top the list by far if it had taken place a month later. In the 2010 general election, one of the 60% Obama seats like IL-17 or IL-10. Democrats didn't pick up anything higher than a 54% Trump seat in 2018, just for comparison.

Solomon Ortiz losing to Blake Farenthold was pretty embarrassing because a) Hispanic district not expected to ever flip and b) Blake Farenthold

That’s true, but it wasn’t 60% Obama if I recall. And weird results happen in races that fly under the radar, that’s why you get oddities like NY-11 or OK-5

On another note, after seeing that the Trumpiest district Democrats gained in the general last year was only Trump at 54%, that makes Conor Lamb’s special election victory all that more impressive. That seat was 58% Trump.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Yeah, it's entirely symbolic.   It won't affect what happens in Congress at all.

I'd say most special elections are like this, except the ones for Senate seats.

The sad thing is, even if McCready wins, he's going to have to go right back to campaigning again, which will mean by 2021, he'll have been campaigning for like 3 years straight. That is something out of a nightmare.

I’m curious what the Nc Supreme Court does. Do they give him a better seat or do they dismantle it completely and move the Dem opportunities to the Research triangle and Winston-Salem instead? If the latter, wonder if he runs statewide instead

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The raw margins out of Robeson look underwhelming

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

McCready really overperforming in Anson with half of EDay in

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

McCready's slight underperformance in Scotland is the only reason I’m not 100% convinced that this is over, but it’s hard to see how Democrats lose this.

Strong ED numbers from Union would probably do it. Not that unlikely.

The 20% of Election Day votes we have from there have only bumped up Bishop’s margin by 1% so far. That could be the more Democratic friendly precincts, but if it’s representative, then Bishop’s not getting the numbers he needs out of there

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It's now official. McCready improves from his 2018 result in suburban Mecklenburg (Bishop's home turf!) and does roughly the same in suburban Union County. But he does worse overall due to a total collapse in the rural areas, losing two rural counties he carried in 2018 and nearly losing one he carried by 15 points (!) in 2018!

Politician, Zaybay, and everyone else who insists there will be a rural surge for the Democrats in 2020 must be reeling right now.

Yeah this was 2016 and 2018 trends on steroids lol. I was expecting erosion in Robeson and the other rurals, but not this bad. On the bright side, if a statewide Dem is doing that well in metro Charlotte the state should be a tossup still.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This sucks.

Who would have thought that McCready implodes so badly in the rural areas ?

Actually...

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Anyone know what happens with Bishop's seat now?

No special. Just a caretaker chosen by the local party I think. McCready does live here though, so I say he should go for it in 2020. Should be a pretty easy win for him

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I wonder what this means for KY-Gov. ...

There you have a deeply unpopular R Governor in a strongly R environment with good polls for the Democrat.

I got some bad news...

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This is over. Maybe this will encourage Democrats to take it more seriously in November

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I had completely forgotten that there was a special in NY-27. For some reason I thought that was scheduled alongside the regular election in November. These results are nothing but catastrophic for Republicans if it is indicative of anything meaningful. But again, if we were going by special election results as a barometer for November, we'd have thought Biden was doomed based on the CA-25 special.