Spanish elections and politics

[Velasco]

With results at 99.26% and in raw vote, with regards to December 2015: PP gains 600k votes, PSOE is losing less than 100k, UP is losing 1M and C's is losing 500k. First impression could be that there was a C's-PP transfer and a huge demobilisation among the UP base.

[Vosem]

99.26% counted...looks like it's barely not enough. Who's ready for another round of useless posturing, the impotent Rajoy government staying in power for a few more months, and a third election?

[Bacon King]

98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

I don't think that coalition would be remotely feasible in the slightest?

Why's that? PNV and PNC both have histories of backing PP governments when Aznar was President (and are basically right-wing parties), and the relations haven't changed since that time. CiU also backed Aznar, but since their descendant party is pro-Catalan independence I don't think PP can find any support there.

C's -- in addition to also being a right-wing force -- have said they'll only negotiate with PP if the leader is not Rajoy, which seems like the biggest problem to this coalition if they can get up to an actual majority with the final results.

What other option is even remotely capable of approaching government formation?

all other reasons aside, C's whole deal is being completely opposed to regional nationalism

[ag]

99.26% counted...looks like it's barely not enough. Who's ready for another round of useless posturing, the impotent Rajoy government staying in power for a few more months, and a third election?

Seems like the most likely outcome.  Even if they get one more seat, the new PNV-reliant government would be very precarious. Rajoy is not known to be a great friend of the Basques.

The only other option would be sending for CDC. But that means referendum.

[ag]

98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

>PP
>Basque nationalists

Pick one.

At the very least, Rajoy would have to go for this to work, methinks.

[jaichind]

I think the pressure on PSOE to abstain in a vote for a PP government would be quite large.  Over time that is the most likely outcome.

[ag]

99.48% counted.

[ag]

I think the pressure on PSOE to abstain in a vote for a PP government would be quite large.  Over time that is the most likely outcome.

Why? Their electorate would be very upset if they do.

For king and country? It is not a very Socialist sentiment

[Vosem]

98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

I don't think that coalition would be remotely feasible in the slightest?

Why's that? PNV and PNC both have histories of backing PP governments when Aznar was President (and are basically right-wing parties), and the relations haven't changed since that time. CiU also backed Aznar, but since their descendant party is pro-Catalan independence I don't think PP can find any support there.

C's -- in addition to also being a right-wing force -- have said they'll only negotiate with PP if the leader is not Rajoy, which seems like the biggest problem to this coalition if they can get up to an actual majority with the final results.

What other option is even remotely capable of approaching government formation?

all other reasons aside, C's whole deal is being completely opposed to regional nationalism

Sure, but C's have been known to negotiate with regional parties in the very recent past (they couldn't get an agreement with PNV in the 2015 government formation, but they did get the Canarians to back them, and that was in an environment where it was understood that the investiture vote would fail). In a scenario where it's either government formation or go back to the polls and risk heavy losses, an agreement between C's and PNV could be hammered out.

99.26% counted...looks like it's barely not enough. Who's ready for another round of useless posturing, the impotent Rajoy government staying in power for a few more months, and a third election?

Seems like the most likely outcome.  Even if they get one more seat, the new PNV-reliant government would be very precarious. Rajoy is not known to be a great friend of the Basques.

The only other option would be sending for CDC. But that means referendum.

Rajoy and Rivera would both rather have a third general election than a referendum. So that's right out.

[Velasco]

I think the pressure on PSOE to abstain in a vote for a PP government would be quite large.  Over time that is the most likely outcome.

Why? Their electorate would be very upset if they do.

For king and country? It is not a very Socialist sentiment

PSOE leadership has been always quite monarchic. Furthermore, it's said that king Juan Carlos had a more friendly relationship with Felipe González or Zapatero than with Aznar or Rajoy.

This PP result is a terrible mess. Rajoy is more a problem than a solution.

[jaichind]

Pedro Sanchez, says his party's second place finish in Sunday's general election shows that "we are the foremost political power on the left."

[ag]

Sure, but C's have been known to negotiate with regional parties in the very recent past (they couldn't get an agreement with PNV in the 2015 government formation, but they did get the Canarians to back them, and that was in an environment where it was understood that the investiture vote would fail). In a scenario where it's either government formation or go back to the polls and risk heavy losses, an agreement between C's and PNV could be hammered out.

Canarians and PNV are extremely different beasts. The fact that C can negotiate with Canarians is not at all indicative of their chances with PNV.

Things that happened in the past, happened in a very different climate. The last few years PP has been emphatically building itself based on being opposed to Basque and Catalan nationalism (and, of course, C has started in opposition to Catalanism as such). Now they would need PNV or CDC - two parties that feel very aggrieved precisely by PP and C. Frankly, I do think abstension from PSOE might be easier to get.

[ag]

I think the pressure on PSOE to abstain in a vote for a PP government would be quite large.  Over time that is the most likely outcome.

Why? Their electorate would be very upset if they do.

For king and country? It is not a very Socialist sentiment

PSOE leadership has been always quite monarchic. Furthermore, it's said that king Juan Carlos had a more friendly relationship with Felipe González or Zapatero than with Aznar or Rajoy.

That may be true. But it is one thing to be friendly to HM, and quite another thing to sacrifice your political future for Him. And I cannot see how tolerating this government is not going to make Podemos destroy PSOE next time.

[ag]

Rajoy and Rivera would both rather have a third general election than a referendum. So that's right out.

True. That is out. But I doubt that PNV will ask for something less unacceptable than a referendum

[jaichind]

Rivera Says Ciudadanos Will Demand Electoral Reform in Spain

[Velasco]

Why's that? PNV and PNC both have histories of backing PP governments when Aznar was President (and are basically right-wing parties), and the relations haven't changed since that time. CiU also backed Aznar, but since their descendant party is pro-Catalan independence I don't think PP can find any support there.
Sure, but C's have been known to negotiate with regional parties in the very recent past (they couldn't get an agreement with PNV in the 2015 government formation, but they did get the Canarians to back them, and that was in an environment where it was understood that the investiture vote would fail). In a scenario where it's either government formation or go back to the polls and risk heavy losses, an agreement between C's and PNV could be hammered out.

The problem between C's and PNV is that oranges don't like the special economic regime ruling in the Basque Country and that's a sacred matter for Basque nationalists. The relationship between the Basque government and the Rajoy administration is by no means as tormented as that between the central government and Catalonia, but anyway it's cold. Even though PNV is a centrist and considerably pragmatic party, it's not easy that they reach a stable agreement with PP and C's. Basque Country will have elections in October, while PNV is engaged with the other forces in Basque Parliament in a reform of their statute of autonomy. I don't see Rajoy and Rivera giving an enthusiastic support for a deepening of the Basque self-government.

[ag]

There is, of course, one more, very unsettling possibility. PSOE/Podemos/ERC/CDC/PNV (and outside suppport of EH-Bildu on some votes). It is a majority. Of course, it is a majority with a referendum (and, possibly, not only in Catalunya).

[jaichind]

99.86% in

PP           33.02%       137
PSOE       22.67%        85
Podemos  21.11%        71 
C             13.05%        32

I doubt it will change from here given how few votes are left.

[ag]

99.91%. No change.

So, all these discussions about PNV being partnerable with PP and C may turn out to be academic. Get your pick of ERC, CDC or EH-Bildu.

[Velasco]

There is, of course, one more, very unsettling possibility. PSOE/Podemos/ERC/CDC/PNV (and outside suppport of EH-Bildu on some votes). It is a majority. Of course, it is a majority with a referendum (and, possibly, not only in Catalunya).

That is not a realistic possibility. PSOE and Podemos could have been tried that possibility after the December elections. Iglesias already proposed that agreement in a singular way and PSOE rejected it. The PSOE's Federal Committee held days after the previous election banned deals with Catalan separatist parties. It's more likely that PP, PSOE and C's start tripartite negotiations. Prospects are uncertain, but they will be pressured to prevent a third election.

[ag]

There is, of course, one more, very unsettling possibility. PSOE/Podemos/ERC/CDC/PNV (and outside suppport of EH-Bildu on some votes). It is a majority. Of course, it is a majority with a referendum (and, possibly, not only in Catalunya).

That is not a realistic possibility. PSOE and Podemos could have been tried that possibility after the December elections. Iglesias already proposed that agreement in a singular way and PSOE rejected it. The PSOE's Federal Committee held days after the previous election banned deals with Catalan separatist parties. It's more likely that PP, PSOE and C's start tripartite negotiations. Prospects are uncertain, but they will be pressured to prevent a third election.

Why would they need C in it? They have a majority between the two of them. Why share spoils with C?

[Upsilon]

The biggest problem is that the catalan are necessarily in the opposition... This make the formation of any government impossible (except grand coalition).

The catalan supported Aznar then Zapatero but now it's an old story...

[jaichind]

Rajoy: “We have won the elections -- we claim the right to govern”

[ag]

99.96%.

[ag]

Rajoy: “We have won the elections -- we claim the right to govern”

Well, he will govern - till November or December, when the next elections happen.