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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 370768 times)
World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #1000 on: June 26, 2016, 04:46:24 PM »

98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

>PP
>Basque nationalists

Pick one.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1001 on: June 26, 2016, 04:46:49 PM »

99% in

PP           33.01%       137
PSOE       22.68%        85
Podemos  21.11%        71  
C             13.04%        32

PP crosses 33%
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Double Carpet
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« Reply #1002 on: June 26, 2016, 04:48:55 PM »

Spain counts at polling stations (like most countries), which is why it's so fast - but even allowing for that it's faster than most other large countries.

Austria and Denmark also count quickly but are obviously much smaller.
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ag
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« Reply #1003 on: June 26, 2016, 04:49:00 PM »

98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

I don't think that coalition would be remotely feasible in the slightest?

I mean, other than being right-wing, PNV these days is not a very good partner for either PP or C. It might ask for things for the Basques that would not be acceptable  for either of the 2 other partners. In any case, so far they are still one seat short.
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Vosem
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« Reply #1004 on: June 26, 2016, 04:50:04 PM »

98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

I don't think that coalition would be remotely feasible in the slightest?

Why's that? PNV and PNC both have histories of backing PP governments when Aznar was President (and are basically right-wing parties), and the relations haven't changed since that time. CiU also backed Aznar, but since their descendant party is pro-Catalan independence I don't think PP can find any support there.

C's -- in addition to also being a right-wing force -- have said they'll only negotiate with PP if the leader is not Rajoy, which seems like the biggest problem to this coalition if they can get up to an actual majority with the final results.

What other option is even remotely capable of approaching government formation?
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jaichind
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« Reply #1005 on: June 26, 2016, 04:51:20 PM »

Looks like PP increased its majority in the Senate from 124 to 130 with 78% of the votes counted.
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Vosem
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« Reply #1006 on: June 26, 2016, 04:51:57 PM »

98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

>PP
>Basque nationalists

Pick one.

What's changed since 1996, when the PNV supported Aznar's first investiture vote?
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ag
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« Reply #1007 on: June 26, 2016, 04:52:30 PM »

Frankly, it is hard to see of any majority government here, other than the grand coalition of PP-PSOE. And I have no clue why PSOE would agree to enter such a government.

The only other plausible coalition is PSOE-Podemos-CC: and there are still no reasons to believe it would work any better than before this election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1008 on: June 26, 2016, 04:53:30 PM »

Podemos now down 4.9% in Madrid while C only down around 1%.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1009 on: June 26, 2016, 04:55:13 PM »

With results at 99.26% and in raw vote, with regards to December 2015: PP gains 600k votes, PSOE is losing less than 100k, UP is losing 1M and C's is losing 500k. First impression could be that there was a C's-PP transfer and a huge demobilisation among the UP base.
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Vosem
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« Reply #1010 on: June 26, 2016, 04:55:52 PM »

99.26% counted...looks like it's barely not enough. Who's ready for another round of useless posturing, the impotent Rajoy government staying in power for a few more months, and a third election?
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Bacon King
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« Reply #1011 on: June 26, 2016, 04:56:26 PM »

98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

I don't think that coalition would be remotely feasible in the slightest?

Why's that? PNV and PNC both have histories of backing PP governments when Aznar was President (and are basically right-wing parties), and the relations haven't changed since that time. CiU also backed Aznar, but since their descendant party is pro-Catalan independence I don't think PP can find any support there.

C's -- in addition to also being a right-wing force -- have said they'll only negotiate with PP if the leader is not Rajoy, which seems like the biggest problem to this coalition if they can get up to an actual majority with the final results.

What other option is even remotely capable of approaching government formation?

all other reasons aside, C's whole deal is being completely opposed to regional nationalism
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ag
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« Reply #1012 on: June 26, 2016, 04:57:37 PM »

99.26% counted...looks like it's barely not enough. Who's ready for another round of useless posturing, the impotent Rajoy government staying in power for a few more months, and a third election?

Seems like the most likely outcome.  Even if they get one more seat, the new PNV-reliant government would be very precarious. Rajoy is not known to be a great friend of the Basques.

The only other option would be sending for CDC. But that means referendum.
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ag
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« Reply #1013 on: June 26, 2016, 04:59:16 PM »

98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

>PP
>Basque nationalists

Pick one.

At the very least, Rajoy would have to go for this to work, methinks.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1014 on: June 26, 2016, 04:59:27 PM »

I think the pressure on PSOE to abstain in a vote for a PP government would be quite large.  Over time that is the most likely outcome.
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ag
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« Reply #1015 on: June 26, 2016, 04:59:40 PM »

99.48% counted.
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ag
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« Reply #1016 on: June 26, 2016, 05:00:57 PM »

I think the pressure on PSOE to abstain in a vote for a PP government would be quite large.  Over time that is the most likely outcome.

Why? Their electorate would be very upset if they do.

For king and country? It is not a very Socialist sentiment Smiley
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Vosem
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« Reply #1017 on: June 26, 2016, 05:01:10 PM »

98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

I don't think that coalition would be remotely feasible in the slightest?

Why's that? PNV and PNC both have histories of backing PP governments when Aznar was President (and are basically right-wing parties), and the relations haven't changed since that time. CiU also backed Aznar, but since their descendant party is pro-Catalan independence I don't think PP can find any support there.

C's -- in addition to also being a right-wing force -- have said they'll only negotiate with PP if the leader is not Rajoy, which seems like the biggest problem to this coalition if they can get up to an actual majority with the final results.

What other option is even remotely capable of approaching government formation?

all other reasons aside, C's whole deal is being completely opposed to regional nationalism

Sure, but C's have been known to negotiate with regional parties in the very recent past (they couldn't get an agreement with PNV in the 2015 government formation, but they did get the Canarians to back them, and that was in an environment where it was understood that the investiture vote would fail). In a scenario where it's either government formation or go back to the polls and risk heavy losses, an agreement between C's and PNV could be hammered out.

99.26% counted...looks like it's barely not enough. Who's ready for another round of useless posturing, the impotent Rajoy government staying in power for a few more months, and a third election?

Seems like the most likely outcome.  Even if they get one more seat, the new PNV-reliant government would be very precarious. Rajoy is not known to be a great friend of the Basques.

The only other option would be sending for CDC. But that means referendum.

Rajoy and Rivera would both rather have a third general election than a referendum. So that's right out.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1018 on: June 26, 2016, 05:06:30 PM »

I think the pressure on PSOE to abstain in a vote for a PP government would be quite large.  Over time that is the most likely outcome.

Why? Their electorate would be very upset if they do.

For king and country? It is not a very Socialist sentiment Smiley

PSOE leadership has been always quite monarchic. Furthermore, it's said that king Juan Carlos had a more friendly relationship with Felipe González or Zapatero than with Aznar or Rajoy.

This PP result is a terrible mess. Rajoy is more a problem than a solution.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1019 on: June 26, 2016, 05:13:36 PM »

Pedro Sanchez, says his party's second place finish in Sunday's general election shows that "we are the foremost political power on the left."
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ag
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« Reply #1020 on: June 26, 2016, 05:13:45 PM »



Sure, but C's have been known to negotiate with regional parties in the very recent past (they couldn't get an agreement with PNV in the 2015 government formation, but they did get the Canarians to back them, and that was in an environment where it was understood that the investiture vote would fail). In a scenario where it's either government formation or go back to the polls and risk heavy losses, an agreement between C's and PNV could be hammered out.



Canarians and PNV are extremely different beasts. The fact that C can negotiate with Canarians is not at all indicative of their chances with PNV.

Things that happened in the past, happened in a very different climate. The last few years PP has been emphatically building itself based on being opposed to Basque and Catalan nationalism (and, of course, C has started in opposition to Catalanism as such). Now they would need PNV or CDC - two parties that feel very aggrieved precisely by PP and C. Frankly, I do think abstension from PSOE might be easier to get.
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ag
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« Reply #1021 on: June 26, 2016, 05:15:55 PM »

I think the pressure on PSOE to abstain in a vote for a PP government would be quite large.  Over time that is the most likely outcome.

Why? Their electorate would be very upset if they do.

For king and country? It is not a very Socialist sentiment Smiley

PSOE leadership has been always quite monarchic. Furthermore, it's said that king Juan Carlos had a more friendly relationship with Felipe González or Zapatero than with Aznar or Rajoy.


That may be true. But it is one thing to be friendly to HM, and quite another thing to sacrifice your political future for Him. And I cannot see how tolerating this government is not going to make Podemos destroy PSOE next time.
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ag
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« Reply #1022 on: June 26, 2016, 05:16:55 PM »


Rajoy and Rivera would both rather have a third general election than a referendum. So that's right out.

True. That is out. But I doubt that PNV will ask for something less unacceptable than a referendum Smiley
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jaichind
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« Reply #1023 on: June 26, 2016, 05:18:49 PM »

Rivera Says Ciudadanos Will Demand Electoral Reform in Spain
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Velasco
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« Reply #1024 on: June 26, 2016, 05:21:38 PM »

Why's that? PNV and PNC both have histories of backing PP governments when Aznar was President (and are basically right-wing parties), and the relations haven't changed since that time. CiU also backed Aznar, but since their descendant party is pro-Catalan independence I don't think PP can find any support there.
Sure, but C's have been known to negotiate with regional parties in the very recent past (they couldn't get an agreement with PNV in the 2015 government formation, but they did get the Canarians to back them, and that was in an environment where it was understood that the investiture vote would fail). In a scenario where it's either government formation or go back to the polls and risk heavy losses, an agreement between C's and PNV could be hammered out.

The problem between C's and PNV is that oranges don't like the special economic regime ruling in the Basque Country and that's a sacred matter for Basque nationalists. The relationship between the Basque government and the Rajoy administration is by no means as tormented as that between the central government and Catalonia, but anyway it's cold. Even though PNV is a centrist and considerably pragmatic party, it's not easy that they reach a stable agreement with PP and C's. Basque Country will have elections in October, while PNV is engaged with the other forces in Basque Parliament in a reform of their statute of autonomy. I don't see Rajoy and Rivera giving an enthusiastic support for a deepening of the Basque self-government.
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