Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Person Man]

Been thinking about the fact that Russia is holding so much of their army back for no apparent reason.  The only thing that makes sense to me is that logistically they wouldn't be able to handle it.  We've seen reports of their issues in Belarus, and reports of Russian soldiers raiding homes for food and clothing.

See also, this:
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1497485623225200640

… and God laughs…

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Been thinking about the fact that Russia is holding so much of their army back for no apparent reason.  The only thing that makes sense to me is that logistically they wouldn't be able to handle it.  We've seen reports of their issues in Belarus, and reports of Russian soldiers raiding homes for food and clothing.

A couple of issues here. Firstly, once armies get over a certain size they become very cumbersome to manoeuvre and committing all that you would theoretically wish to at once becomes difficult unless things have been very carefully planned, particularly if the intention is to use transport infrastructure (and if you aren't, then things are a lot slower). It's absurd, but traffic jams can be a real problem. Secondly (and really this relates directly to the first thing), there may be issues with logistics and (especially) supply lines. Thirdly, although I obviously can't comment on how it's affecting deployment in practice (and if the doctrine here is being ignored - possible! - then it won't explain a thing), but in theory each regiment or brigade in the Russian Army consists of three battalions, two of which are largely comprised of contract soldiers and one of which is entirely comprised of conscripts and raw recruits and which is supposed to function in a support capacity, rather than be deployed to the front, unless absolutely necessary.

[dead0man]

Armor running out of fuel on day 2 or 3 of an operation you initiated is a sign you don't really know what the hell you're doing.  

You expect Russian equipment to break and the conscripts not fighting very well, but you don't expect them to lose so much equipment so fast, run out of fuel of all things and have 2 large jets full of some of Russia's best trained troops shot down?  That ain't a good sign for Russia moving forward.


This also confirms my belief that the PRC can NOT take Taiwan as the PRC's equipment and men aren't as good as Russia and it's far easier to invade a country you share a long land border with than it is to invade an island 110 miles from your shores.  The Taiwanese might not have the military might Ukraine does, but they have far better geography on their side.

[jaichind]

Russians claim that they halted their operations later yesterday due to the prospect of talks with Ukraine.  It seems that Ukraine has since rejected these talks, as per the Russians, so now Putin has already ordered a resumption of the offensive.

[Person Man]

Armor running out of fuel on day 2 or 3 of an operation you initiated is a sign you don't really know what the hell you're doing.  

You expect Russian equipment to break and the conscripts not fighting very well, but you don't expect them to lose so much equipment so fast, run out of fuel of all things and have 2 large jets full of some of Russia's best trained troops shot down?  That ain't a good sign for Russia moving forward.


This also confirms my belief that the PRC can NOT take Taiwan as the PRC's equipment and men aren't as good as Russia and it's far easier to invade a country you share a long land border with than it is to invade an island 110 miles from your shores.  The Taiwanese might not have the military might Ukraine does, but they have far better geography on their side.

If anything, this war should improve people’s confidence in dealing with Russia or China.

[Person Man]

Russians claim that they halted their operations later yesterday due to the prospect of talks with Ukraine.  It seems that Ukraine has since rejected these talks, as per the Russians, so now Putin has already ordered a resumption of the offensive.

Was there a chance to stall the Russians long enough to get resituated? Or was Putin lying as a cover that he was caught with his pants down and needed time to pull them up?

[jaichind]

Armor running out of fuel on day 2 or 3 of an operation you initiated is a sign you don't really know what the hell you're doing.  

You expect Russian equipment to break and the conscripts not fighting very well, but you don't expect them to lose so much equipment so fast, run out of fuel of all things and have 2 large jets full of some of Russia's best trained troops shot down?  That ain't a good sign for Russia moving forward.


This also confirms my belief that the PRC can NOT take Taiwan as the PRC's equipment and men aren't as good as Russia and it's far easier to invade a country you share a long land border with than it is to invade an island 110 miles from your shores.  The Taiwanese might not have the military might Ukraine does, but they have far better geography on their side.

I always figured the PRC timeline for reunification in the late 2030s when they will likely have confidence that they can win a conventional war for reunification WITH USA and Japan intervention.  Of course, I figure these prospects would mean that real reunification talks are likely to start in the mid 2030s.

[jaichind]

Russians claim that they halted their operations later yesterday due to the prospect of talks with Ukraine.  It seems that Ukraine has since rejected these talks, as per the Russians, so now Putin has already ordered a resumption of the offensive.

Was there a chance to stall the Russians long enough to get resituated? Or was Putin lying as a cover that he was caught with his pants down and needed time to pull them up?

I am very skeptical of this Russian narrative.  I am sure they might have slowed down but that is not because the prosepect of talks but more for their own military reasons.

[BlueSwan]

I'm deeply sceptical of all reporting from the early stages of a war.

[GoTfan]

Apparently a disconnection from SWIFT is imminent.

Russia has stated that they will consdier this an act of war.

This is probably gonna be my last post in this forum. Thanks for the memories guys.

[Person Man]

Russians claim that they halted their operations later yesterday due to the prospect of talks with Ukraine.  It seems that Ukraine has since rejected these talks, as per the Russians, so now Putin has already ordered a resumption of the offensive.

Was there a chance to stall the Russians long enough to get resituated? Or was Putin lying as a cover that he was caught with his pants down and needed time to pull them up?

I am very skeptical of this Russian narrative.  I am sure they might have slowed down but that is not because the prosepect of talks but more for their own military reasons.

Probably has something to do with how poorly they planned.

[Brittain33]

I'm deeply sceptical of all reporting from the early stages of a war.

[Storr]

Russian born (he now has dual Russian/American citizenship) National Hockey League star Alexander Ovetchkin, who's already one of the greatest of all time and has always publicly shown support for Putin said "Please, no more war" last night.

""Well, he's my president. But, how I said, I'm not in politics. I'm an athlete," Ochevkin replied. "How I said, hope everything's going to be done soon. It's a hard situation right now for both sides. Everything, like how I said, everything I hope is going to be end, and I'm not in control of situation.""

""Please, no more war," he urged. "Doesn't matter who's in the war. Russia. Ukraine. Different countries. I think we live in a world like we have to live in peace and a great world.""

https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1497307285067997184?s=20&t=joCt93LwSCDM...

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/25/sport/ovechkin-nhl-war/index.html

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Russian born (he has dual Russian/American citizenship) National Hockey League star, who's already one of the greatest of all time, Alexander Ovetchkin who has always publicly shown support for Putin has publicly said: "Please, no more war" last night.

""Well, he's my president. But, how I said, I'm not in politics. I'm an athlete," Ochevkin replied. "How I said, hope everything's going to be done soon. It's a hard situation right now for both sides. Everything, like how I said, everything I hope is going to be end, and I'm not in control of situation.""

""Please, no more war," he urged. "Doesn't matter who's in the war. Russia. Ukraine. Different countries. I think we live in a world like we have to live in peace and a great world.""

https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1497307285067997184?s=20&t=joCt93LwSCDM...

There have been a lot of antiwar-but-not-necessarily-pro-Ukraine statements from the extremely patriotic/nationalistic Russian figure skating world too--Evgenia Medvedeva, Maxim Trankov. Hopefully it's having some effect on public opinion.

[It’s so Joever]

Apparently a disconnection from SWIFT is imminent.

Russia has stated that they will consdier this an act of war.

This is probably gonna be my last post in this forum. Thanks for the memories guys.

If they want to start a war, we will give ‘Em war! NATO will put the blast in Oblast!

[MaxQue]

Russian born (he has dual Russian/American citizenship) National Hockey League star, who's already one of the greatest of all time, Alexander Ovetchkin who has always publicly shown support for Putin has publicly said: "Please, no more war" last night.

""Well, he's my president. But, how I said, I'm not in politics. I'm an athlete," Ochevkin replied. "How I said, hope everything's going to be done soon. It's a hard situation right now for both sides. Everything, like how I said, everything I hope is going to be end, and I'm not in control of situation.""

""Please, no more war," he urged. "Doesn't matter who's in the war. Russia. Ukraine. Different countries. I think we live in a world like we have to live in peace and a great world.""

https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1497307285067997184?s=20&t=joCt93LwSCDM...

There have been a lot of antiwar-but-not-necessarily-pro-Ukraine statements from the extremely patriotic/nationalistic Russian figure skating world too--Evgenia Medvedeva, Maxim Trankov. Hopefully it's having some effect on public opinion.

It won't because Russians will never hear about it, or Russia will twist their words to make the athletes approving of the war.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Apparently a disconnection from SWIFT is imminent.

Russia has stated that they will consdier this an act of war.

This is probably gonna be my last post in this forum. Thanks for the memories guys.

If they want to start a war, we will give ‘Em war! NATO will put the blast in Oblast!

Okay, this is clever.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Some general thoughts:

Obviously, a lot of this is about Putin’s desire to restore Russia’s status as a true global superpower in contention for global hegemony by resurrecting the USSR borders and probably a new Warsaw Pact as well.  Putin realizes that right now Russia isn’t even remotely in the same ballpark as the US and China.  Russia is a strong regional power.  A very strong one.  However, that is very different than being a true global superpower.  Russia is more comparable to somewhere like India than it is to the US or China in its status, its economy is like a soft underbelly ripe for attack, and its military is very much “they have twice as many tanks as us, but only half as many actually work.” 

Putin knows all this.  This was clearly “supposed” to be a video game war where Ukraine would surrender en masse and its government would flee immediately.  That hasn’t happened and now Putin was robbed of the “Hitler takes Czechoslovakia while the West does literally nothing” moment he clearly wanted to use to begin re-establishing Russia as a country the world feared and needed to truly fear.  On that front, this has already been a colossal PR disaster for Russia.  Unlike the reassertion of Russian control in Belarus, Kazakstan, and Russia’s involvement in the latest Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict (or even the election of Russophilic folks in the Czech Republic, Hungary, etc), Russia looks like a weaker regional power than it did before it invaded Ukraine. 

That said, you have to look at all this from Putin’s perspective to understand where things are likely heading and why Russia likely won’t back down no matter what while he remains in power absent one highly unlikely scenario.  There are now protests against the war in Russia that are at least perceived globally as having gone mainstream.  This means Putin really can’t back down even if he wanted to b/c once a dictator gives the perception that they can be influenced by peaceful protests, the fear is often broken and it may prove impossible to truly “control the rabble” going forward. 

This is doubly true for Putin given that we know the Arab Spring in general and Gaddafi’s individual fate in particular had an enormous “I’ll be d***ed if I am ever going to let that happen to me” impression on Putin.  I remember reading about how he was obsessed with Gaddafi’s death and came to greatly fear something like that happening to him the moment he showed any sign of softening.  Note that Medvedev was kicked out as President within a year of Gaddafi’s death.

Also, we don’t really know all the internal pressures Putin faces.  Where does the Russian military leadership stand on this?  If they basically start demanding he withdraw then that’s the unlikely scenario where Putin might order a withdrawal…maybe.  However, I suspect that they are more gung-ho about the invasion than anyone.  The reason I bring all this up is b/c you gotta think about the pressures animating even dictator’s decisions.  Take the Six Day War.  Nassar believed it would be a huge mistake to go to war despite his bluster, but he also knew the Egyptian military was gonna overthrow him if he didn’t.  So for him, it had less to do with winning or losing than with staying in power.  Not saying that’s the situation here, but it’s important to remember even dictators have their own interests and internal pressures that may not be obvious from our perspective. 

Finally, I think one under-discussed piece of this is that Putin’s talk of nuclear weapons, invading Finland, dropping the international space station on the US/Europe, etc is at odds with the image he has tried to craft for himself.  You see this sort of thing in trials sometimes: an attorney realizes they have nothing so they yell, go #FullTalkRadio (“I KNOW I DON’T HAVE TELL YOU WHAT’S GOING ON HERE!  WE ALL KNOW THE TRUTH AND THE TRUTH IS THAT THEY DON’T WANT YOU TO KNOW THE FACTS!”) while the other attorney is calm, collected, and generally seems like the adult in the room.  Putin hasn’t necessarily been yelling, but he sure doesn’t sound like a calm, controlled man speaking from a position of strength either.  You don’t do stuff like randomly make vague nuclear threats everyone knows you’re not going to carry out or have a crony threaten to crash the international space station into your enemies when things are going well any more than a lawyer goes #FullTalkRadio* when they are confident in their case.

*Being fired up/some performative dramatics are fine, I’m talking about when the whole closing argument is just the lawyer loudly shouting stuff like “WE ALL KNOW THE TRUTH!”  I’ve only personally seen this happen once (I’ve heard about some other times though) when I was watching a colleague try a case and the defense’s closing argument was basically a lot of vague shouting about #TheTruth w/o even really bothering to try and address the various witness’ testimony.  You basically forfeit being the Grown Up in the Room (c) when you do that imo.

TL;DR: If Putin is overthrown - whether by protestors or a coup - then Russia might withdraw, but otherwise the only way that a withdrawal could happen is if the Russian military leadership basically demands it which is both highly unlikely and still may not lead to a withdrawal.

 

[It’s so Joever]

Apparently a disconnection from SWIFT is imminent.

Russia has stated that they will consdier this an act of war.

This is probably gonna be my last post in this forum. Thanks for the memories guys.

If they want to start a war, we will give ‘Em war! NATO will put the blast in Oblast!

Okay, this is clever.

Heh maybe if I’m not allowed to serve in combat because of epilepsy, I could do propaganda work.

[Storr]

Vive la France.

https://twitter.com/MarineTraffic/status/1497531939443687428?s=20&t=E5wR9_tX...

[DavidB.]

Hope Andriy is okay... according to his profile he lives in Vinnytsja...

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497593214362173444?s=20&t=hspPH1jEWLzyA...

[It’s so Joever]

Hope Andriy is okay... according to his profile he lives in Vinnytsja...

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497593214362173444?s=20&t=hspPH1jEWLzyA...

Didn’t he say he was moving out west earlier?

[President Johnson]

Holy moly, it seems like Russia is moving troops in Belarus near the Polish border. Putin apparently wants to threaten NATO.

https://twitter.com/demianvonosten/status/1497544786718380032

[MaxQue]

Holy moly, it seems like Russia is moving troops in Belarus near the Polish border. Putin apparently wants to threaten NATO.

https://twitter.com/demianvonosten/status/1497544786718380032

I assume that if Putin is insane enough to invade Poland, it would drag all of NATO into this?

[dead0man]

I assume that if Putin is insane enough to invade Poland, it would drag all of NATO into this?

yes, of course