Israel-Gaza war

[NOVA Green]

Shocked and saddened to see the images of Israeli civilians murdered in cold blood by Hamas military formations, and judging by Bernie Sanders tweet, it sounds like IJ units were also involved.

Israel has a legitimate right, as well as an obligation to protect all of its citizens, regardless of ethnicity or religious affiliation, against the political-military organizations involved in these atrocities.

It is still unclear if this was a decision made by the political wing of Hamas or the military wing, so naturally this might well dictate how Israel responds.

Obviously the immediate Israeli focus is on securing parts of the country which were overrun, doing house to house operations to clear out gunmen, rescue hostages, identify tunnel locations, etc...

My biggest concern here is *how* Israel chooses to respond, especially considering the current government in power.

A full-scale invasion of Gaza will likely result in massive innocent Palestinian casualties, considering we are talking about one of the most densly populated places on Earth, where Hamas rocket factories might be buried in tunnels underneath large high rise apartment buildings.

Regardless a full-blown humanitarian crisis is likely looming in Gaza, where the vast majority of the population is dependent upon the international community for basic food items such as grain and cooking oil.

Someone posted upthread about how Israel has already shut off the power to Gaza. If so, how are the sewage, water systems, and hospitals supposed to function?

Backup emergency generators (E-Gens) can only go so far, and presumably Hamas has already prioritized them to supply power to continue to pump out homemade rockets.

I fear that considering the callousness of the Hamas attack against Israeli citizens, as opposed to focusing exclusively on military targets, Israeli public opinion will demand sending ground troops into Gaza itself.

We know how dangerous such military operations are, both for the civilians caught in the crossfire, as well as the combatants on both sides.

Israel's recent operations in Jenin would look like child's play by comparison.

This is not a place to litigate or relitigate the history of Israel and the Palestinian population over the decades.

My older sister is Orthodox Jewish, as are most of my nieces and nephews (with a few that went more secular), and a couple of whom lived in Israel for a few years in their early '20s.

For a long time my sister and my mother agreed not to discuss Israel and the Palestinians because of...

About 4-5 months back, I was having a long conversation with my sister and she actually referred to Israel as an "Apartheid State".

I was shocked to here those words from her mouth after all of these decades.

Haven't had a chance to talk to her yet about this, still being Shabbat and all that, but I would imagine she would fully support a measured Israeli military response, despite her disgust with Bibi and the "Far Right" settler population in the West Bank.

[NOVA Green]

Israel is not a democracy.

Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East.

Israel is a democracy only in name.

Total lie.

How many percent of Palestinians in West Bank can participate in Israel's elections?

All Arab-Israelis can vote in Israeli elections, and all Palestinian residents of Judea and Samaria can vote in Palestinian Authority elections. The alternative would be for Israel to annex Judea and Samaria -- do you want Israel to do that?

Why don't you answer my question?

--> "How many percent of Palestinians in West Bank can participate in Israel's elections?"

None who are not citizens, of course. But that's an irrelevant question, just like asking "What % of Mexicans in Mexico can vote in American elections?"

The United States is not occupying Mexico as far as I am aware.

Okay, let me re-frame this discussion. Are you advocating that Israeli annex the West Bank, and grant citizenship to all Palestinians there?

Israel can either (1.) annex the West Bank and grant citizenship to Palestinians there or (2.) leave the West Bank

Do you understand that the Palestinians and Arab governments would violently object to 1, and that as today demonstrates 2 is not feasible?

Option 3. Jordan gets the West Bank, or at least most of it.

You know that's not a bad idea at all in terms of security guarantees plus some form of independent Palestinian population in a country which all ready has a huge % of refugees from the various Arab-Israeli Wars...

Still this presumes:

1.) Jordan wants to absorb a relatively impoverished West Bank population

2.) Palestinians living in the West Bank want to be absorbed into the Jordanian monarchy

Naturally this does not address the status of Gaza with the massive refugee camps that grew into large densly populated cities, so difficult to see how this all works out there.

Israel's invasion of South Lebanon in the early '80s was successful at rooting out the PLO militants from the refugee camps in the region, but it also helped spawn the rise of Hizbullah as a political-military formation.

Israeli author Amos Oz wrote The Slopes of Lebanon, which directly tackled some of the thorny issues involved with occupying slices of neighbors territory to create defensive buffers, which became influential within the Israeli Peace Movement towards the late '80s when the 1st Intifada starts kicking off.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile in Iran, it doesn't look like the population are taking to the streets in massive demos against the "Zionist" regime in Israel:

In Tehran, the Revolutionary Guards staged a celebration bringing out a few hundred of government supporters in Palestine Square on Saturday to set off fireworks after Hamas’s attack on Israel. Many Iranians took to social media to condemn Hamas’s attacks and violence in Israel.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/07/world/israel-gaza-attack

[NOVA Green]

So live on CNN looks like Israeli missile defense systems have moved closer to Gaza and are intercepting most of the incoming rockets.

Still, pretty clear that Iron Dome is not 100% effective when it comes to intercepting drone swarms to distract Israeli air defense systems from incoming rockets.

[NOVA Green]

Courtesy of "Uncle Sam", in this case the CoC of the USA Joe Biden, US military assets are being redeployed to the region to perform all sorts of activities from SIGINT, to military deterence in the event that Hezbollah opens up a Northern Front or Iran stirs up mischief elsewhere.

[NOVA Green]

Thailand is now saying one of their citizens were killed and several others kidnapped during the Hamas raid on Israel.

Hamas has definitely taken business courses on how to make friends and influence people...

Thailand’s government said that one Thai citizen was killed and four others were kidnapped during the Hamas attack in Israel on Saturday.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/07/world/israel-gaza-attack

[NOVA Green]

Russia meanwhile doing Russian s**t in an attempt to influence global public opinion after the Hamas attack on Israel:

Not saying we have tons of Putin simps floating around here, but those that are out there are pretty much all on my ignore list.

https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1710814975294341473?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Genocide is immoral and wrong because it kills innocent people. I don't support genocide.

so reading between the lines here, you obviously support ethnic cleansing

you think that won't kill innocent people??

Yeah, actually. Give the Gazans to Egypt. Pay for the refugee camps even but don't let Gaza continue to exist as a terrorist installation.

And if [when] Egypt says “no, f**k off”?

Give Egypt no choice. Move them past the Egyptian border and Egypt will not be able to say no without sparking an internal revolution.  

You are completely insane.

Right, unlike the people who want a nation of 8 million to spend the next several decades occupying Gaza all so that the people who elected Hamas, who support Hamas, who rape and molest Israelis in the streets, don't have to live in a country of their co-religionists, paid for by the Israeli government.

wtf is this supposed to mean?

Pls cite with sources since this is a whole new allegation from an individual who is sympathetic to Israel within the context of the recent Hamas terrorist assaults.

[NOVA Green]

I sincerely hope Hamas is going to release at least the women and children in the next 24 hours...If they care for the people of Gaza at all they should

Hamas is a TERRORIST ORGANIZATION that has no problems with violence against civilians to achieve its goals. There is no reality in which Hamas would release its captives.

Apologies if it has already been posted since am still working my way backwards through the thread.

Sounds like Islamic Jihad holds something like ~ (30) hostages.

This is a completely different political-military formation within the Palestinian National Liberation Movements...

IJ has historically long been more in the pocket of Iran than Hamas.

Iran however allegedly cut off funding in '15 because of the organizations neutrality during the war in Yemen.

Not quite sure how this all plays out within the context of Israeli hostages, or possibly those of other foreign nationalities, but it still important to state the distinction.

My current understanding is that IJ's current hostage demands is they will release all in exchange for all of their POWs in Israeli Prisons...

If IJ is holding American hostages these negotiations might play out a bit differently than Hamas hostages.

[NOVA Green]

The United States is moving the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier and its accompanying warships (currently in the Mediterranean) towards Israel. It has a carrier strike group of 5000 soldiers and several aircrafts on deck. This has got to be extremely rare.

Thinking something like (200) fighter jets are on that Carrier.

Obviously this is more of a message to Iran than anyone else, since US is extremely unlikely to directly intervene in what is currently going on in Gaza & Southern Israel.

If Iran were to choose to mobilize their proxies from South Lebanon in a massive way, I would not be surprised if US military assets might be involved in combat operations.

Still Iran does not have direct control over Hezbollah military choices, but would imagine that they would be able to reign them in if it looks like Israeli and US Air assets will start directly targeting their  proxies, with after all the whole Saudi Arabia & Iranian peace deal over the war in Yemen.

[NOVA Green]

Assuming this is borne out, and, given Iran’s President endorsed Hamas’ approach this morning… it feels like a ramp towards further escalation.
https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1711120355585089821

US Carrier fleet will be in the zone within a day or so....

We have no idea about the intel sharing agreements going on, but pretty clear the USA is sharing all sorts of relative intelligence with Israel and various regional allies.

Iran escalates and then Israeli Airforce responds, next thing you know that F-16s will be hitting Iranian Proxy military formations in the event Iran attempts to expand the conflict.

[NOVA Green]

The United States is moving the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier and its accompanying warships (currently in the Mediterranean) towards Israel. It has a carrier strike group of 5000 soldiers and several aircrafts on deck. This has got to be extremely rare.

Thinking something like (200) fighter jets are on that Carrier.

Obviously this is more of a message to Iran than anyone else, since US is extremely unlikely to directly intervene in what is currently going on in Gaza & Southern Israel.

If Iran were to choose to mobilize their proxies from South Lebanon in a massive way, I would not be surprised if US military assets might be involved in combat operations.

Still Iran does not have direct control over Hezbollah military choices, but would imagine that they would be able to reign them in if it looks like Israeli and US Air assets will start directly targeting their  proxies, with after all the whole Saudi Arabia & Iranian peace deal over the war in Yemen.

The Carrier has to stay at a distance though, as seen from the Ukraine War, anti-ship missiles can sink large ships from quite a distance these days.

Not quite sure what you are saying here mate..

What country or political military formation would attempt to sink a US Aircraft Carrier and associated fleet?

Unless it is Russian sub in the Med, where I believe most of them are currently tracked, difficult to see how this works.

Last time I checked nobody is at war with the usa and proxy wars being proxy wars means that NATO controls the MED.

If you are somehow trying to claim that because Ukraine successfully used Anti-Ship missiles to destroy a Russian Naval Cruiser, that this means that Hamas will somehow take out a us carrier fleet, you have obviously not studied or understand military technology, let alone the actual region which we are discussing.

Does Hamas have long range anti-ship rockets like Ukraine developed early in war 2.0?

Even if would they actually attempt to assault US Naval fleets?

Dude... you are completely out of your element Donny.

[NOVA Green]

There is no civilian administration that is possible in Gaza that is friendly to Israel. Establishing rigged elections and hoping westerners buy it isn't gonna work.

Would a Fatah/PLO regime not be more peaceful with Israel than a Hamas regime? I don't what the outcome of a fair election would be, perhaps they might just elect Hamas so Israel could install Fatah undemocratically and it could govern in tandem with the West Bank.

Fatah/PLO explicitly funds lone wolf terrorism via the pay to slay policy so you wouldn't want to back them.

Best head of an interim civilian administration who I can think of would be Mansour Abbas.

PFLP or bust.

The PFLP declared that its goal was to "create a people's democratic Palestine, where Arabs and Jews would live without discrimination, a state without classes and national oppression, a state which allows Arabs and Jews to develop their national culture."

Obviously unrealistic today, I know this. But one can dream.

PFLP obviously has its own roots as a Marxist secular political-military formation from way back in the dayz.

Obviously these times are long done and gone, even what is left within the Secular Leftist Palestinian Political-Military formations from times gone past.

Sold a copy of a university publication book regarding the PFLP to my older sister, who was Orthodox Jewish, when i needed a few extra $$$ to pay rent.

Obviously many Israeli's might still consider some of the PLO peace agreements to have been done in bad faith... but almost like northern ireland one can't expect immediate peace agreements to hold when there is so little trust between both parties to the conflict.

So here is a song from a legendary Irish artist, lead singer of the Pogues, after he split off when his band mates let him go.

Sectarian militant leftist organizations in the '70s / '80s have been mostly eliminated for various reasons including increased government repression, combined with the lack of support from the USSR after the fall of the Berlin Wall.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/DrDavidInDC/status/1711126327250534484

If that person is not a citizen then they should be deported

Not to pry, but if you are claiming for deportation of individuals based upon their country of origin, where exactly does your path to American Citizenship arrive from?

Personally, I think about some Great-Grandparents originated from including Ireland in the late 1880s at a time where "Thousands Are Sailing"...

Bit amazing how sometimes people convert to a new religion they become hardcore evangelicals, just like when people move to a new country try to adopt to being the most hardcore nationalists.

Without calling you out directly OSR, I strongly suspect that we have many Mexican-American Nationals living in Oregon for much longer than he ever set foot on the shores of America who will likely never achieve American Citizenship, because of messed up US immigration policy.

We can't help it that current US law allows people to buy citizenship for $1 Million that add very little value, while meanwhile we have a massive shortage of workers in all essential industries.

[NOVA Green]

China likely not amused regarding the kidnapping of one of their citizens from the "rock concert" down in southern israel close to borders with gaza.

"The Chinese embassy in Israel said that a woman abducted by militants on Saturday was born in China and had a Chinese parent. In a post on its official Weibo account on Sunday, the embassy wrote “Noa was born in Beijing and is Chinese-Israeli.” It added that she had been attending a music festival before she was forcibly taken from Israel to Gaza."

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/08/world/israel-gaza-attack-hamas-news

[NOVA Green]

Looks like a couple American Evangelical Fundis got caught up in the mix...

Reminds me a bit when i was living in Germany in the early / mid 1990s, working for the salvation army when the captain was telling stories about visiting the holy land, when his cars were hit by Palestinian teenager tossing rocks.

Reality is that many Palestinians living in the West Bank identify as Christian, at a time where "Jews for Jesus" was a thing, so whatever Atlas Christian Fundis might well forget how the whole scene played out amongst Orthodox Jews, including my older sister arguing with my evangelical christian dad.

Politics in this part of the middle east have lot less to due with religion, than ownership of land, combined with neighboring countries floating around after the post-colonial era looking for moral authority.

"Two Alabama church groups that were visiting Israel last week are stuck in the country, according to Facebook videos posted by the churches.

Rev. Thack Dyson of St. Paul’s Episcopal Church in Daphne, Ala., said in a Facebook live video from Israel on Sunday that he and his church group were safe in Galilee. He said many of their flights have been canceled, but he hopes they will return by Thursday."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/08/israel-gaza-strikes-hamas-netanyahu/

[NOVA Green]

In Israel there is talk about RZ and Otzma having to leave the government for the sake of national unity, but I would actually argue it's the Haredim who need to go now. You don't deserve to decide on the (way of) deployment of the army if you fight vehemently to have everyone in the country serve in it except for your own community.

Yeah, I've been wondering if this will be the moment that would finally force the Haredim to do their fair share to defend and support the country that protects their way of life. I agree with them that Torah study should be part of the fabric of a Jewish state, but certainly not at the expense of literally everything else. Their kollelim don't defend themselves.

Military needs are much higher than they were 3 days ago, and Israel can't afford to have 20% of its Jewish population not contributing.

So you want Israel to be even more of a theocracy than it already is.

Jewish men are commanded to study Torah daily. A large proportion of Israeli Jews are religiously observant and follow this and other commands. Would you prefer to ban them from studying their holy texts, somehow?

The more you post, the more I realize you have a (very America-brained) child's understanding of this conflict, and of this part of the world more broadly.

This is absolutely silly talk (bolded quote).

You make Israel sound like a theocracy (which it is not).

I suspect you might have been intending to make another point altogether, but perhaps from the perspective of American Evangelical Christians who believes Jews should be converted to Jesus, this might make sense.

My Brother-in-Law, married to my older Sister, grew up in a Liberal Catholic background, but converted to Orthox-Judaism (Long story short), and would spend a significant amount of time attending their local Shul.

Sorry, Americans Jews, let alone Israeli Jews are completely done with the Christian Fundi attempt to "Convert Jews to Jesus".

Maybe I completely misinterpreted where you are coming from when you appear to be promoting the relaxation of laws protecting Ultra-Orthodox from IDF service?

[NOVA Green]

In Israel there is talk about RZ and Otzma having to leave the government for the sake of national unity, but I would actually argue it's the Haredim who need to go now. You don't deserve to decide on the (way of) deployment of the army if you fight vehemently to have everyone in the country serve in it except for your own community.

Yeah, I've been wondering if this will be the moment that would finally force the Haredim to do their fair share to defend and support the country that protects their way of life. I agree with them that Torah study should be part of the fabric of a Jewish state, but certainly not at the expense of literally everything else. Their kollelim don't defend themselves.

Military needs are much higher than they were 3 days ago, and Israel can't afford to have 20% of its Jewish population not contributing.

So you want Israel to be even more of a theocracy than it already is.

Jewish men are commanded to study Torah daily. A large proportion of Israeli Jews are religiously observant and follow this and other commands. Would you prefer to ban them from studying their holy texts, somehow?

The more you post, the more I realize you have a (very America-brained) child's understanding of this conflict, and of this part of the world more broadly.

This is absolutely silly talk (bolded quote).

You make Israel sound like a theocracy (which it is not).

I suspect you might have been intending to make another point altogether, but perhaps from the perspective of American Evangelical Christians who believes Jews should be converted to Jesus, this might make sense.

My Brother-in-Law, married to my older Sister, grew up in a Liberal Catholic background, but converted to Orthox-Judaism (Long story short), and would spend a significant amount of time attending their local Shul.

Sorry, Americans Jews, let alone Israeli Jews are completely done with the Christian Fundi attempt to "Convert Jews to Jesus".

Maybe I completely misinterpreted where you are coming from when you appear to be promoting the relaxation of laws protecting Ultra-Orthodox from IDF service?

I am a Jew.

This command comes from God through the Torah, not from any temporal power.

I am not particularly observant by any measure but I recognize that this mitzvah exists.

My point is that Torah study will be widespread in Israel whether the state promotes it or not.

Thank You for sharing.

Although US Foreign Policy naturally should not be dictated by any Ethnic American immigrant formations who have after all helped make us the country we are, it is certainly true that many of us still have connections and affiliations with our ancestors from whatever country of origin.

Really happy to hear you are not part of the "Jews for Jesus Brigade", and sounds like then you are more of a Secular or Reformist Jew, as opposed to the Orthodox wing of the family who go to Temple on a regular basis, with the exception of a Niece and Nephew.

Naturally many Americans of Jewish-American roots are deeply conflicted with what we see now occurring live on Television in the Middle East, but attempting to create moral high ground, while quoting evangelical style stuff in your sig, might create certain doubts, among those of us more conflicted.

Apologies sir....

[NOVA Green]

Haaretz blames Netanyahu for the conflict with Gaza.
https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/editorial/2023-10-08/ty-article-opinion/netanyahu-bears-responsibility/0000018b-0b9d-d8fc-adff-6bfd1c880000

Apologies for the fact it's behind a paywall.

.

Was about ready to quote from the Opinion Piece, but after getting my free registration need to choose how many free articles I want to run with over the next month.

Instead we see front page article that over "1,500 Hamas militant bodies found in Israel".

"Over 900 Israelis killed, 2,400 wounded".

Also Biden will be speaking Tomorrow at 1 PM Eastern Time, quite possibly to address the status of American Hostages currently held by Hamas.

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-10/ty-article-live/900-israelis-killed-2-400-wounded-in-war-with-hamas/0000018b-17bd-d465-abbb-17bf23000000

[NOVA Green]

it seems like fairly senior individuals within the Gazan government hierarchy didn't know about it.

this actually fits with standard Hamas MO: the militant wing operates more-or-less autonomously from the political wing at all but the very highest levels of the organization (none of whom reside in Gaza) - one could even describe the two wings as distinct parallel organizations with a shared label and joint leadership. Operational secrecy is paramount so members of the political side are only ever informed on a very strict need-to-know basis

somewhat reminiscent of, in Russian history, the distinction between the SRs and the SR Combat Organization

I believe that I was the first to post early on in this thread that we still did not know if this was ordered by the political wing of Hamas or the military wing, or possibly a combination of both.

We still don't know the exact details of the internal dynamics of Hamas with this, let alone the potential involvement of Iran, but I tend to agree with the general thoughts expressed by a few upthread, that had this been "orchestrated by Iran", we would likely have seen an initially much larger coordinated offense on multiple fronts, plus credible intel prior that such an offense was likely to occur.

Even among the splintered Palestinian factions, it does not appear that IJ knew what was coming prior, but rather once the holes were blown up in the wall, and the bulldozers finished the job at four different points, followed by Hamas fighters on motorcycles, etc... it wasn't until a little bit later that Islamic Jihad jumped into the mix to grab a bunch of hostages to exchange for their political prisoners in Israeli Jails.

[NOVA Green]

the atrocities they have spoken about today are absolutely inhuman, just like when Saddam's goons were pulling babies out of incubators, it looks like it's a good time for a Coalition of the Willing

Babies pulled out of incubators spread during / after the Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait was fake news.

Story actually originated from Kuwaiti lobbyists on K-Street to influence US public opinion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nayirah_testimony

https://citizentruth.org/fake-news-1990-that-ignited-gulf-war-sympathy/

You are clearly out of your element Donny... (Assuming this isn't just another Hillgoose stint. )

[NOVA Green]

Maybe I might have missed a post or two, but surprised that nobody on this thread appears to have mentioned the Badr Brigades from Iraq threatening to attack US targets in the region if the US escalates.

"BAGHDAD, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Powerful Iraqi and Yemeni armed groups aligned with Iran have threatened to target U.S. interests with missiles and drones if Washington intervenes to support Israel in its conflict with Hamas in Gaza that already shows signs of expanding to further fronts.

The comments come amid strong support by the United States for Israel's response to the attacks and a U.S. pledge to rapidly provide additional munitions to Israel and deploy a carrier strike group to the Eastern Mediterranean."


https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-iraqi-political-figure-threatens-target-us-interests-if-it-backs-israel-2023-10-10/

[NOVA Green]

US munitions as promised arrive extremely quickly.

Assuming a lot of these are Anti-Air missiles, plus precision ammo which could be fired by multiple different weapon systems.

"The IDF spokesperson announced that a plane carrying ammunition from the U.S. landed in Israel overnight on Tuesday. According to the IDF, the ammunition will "enable significant strikes and preparation for additional scenarios."

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-10/

[NOVA Green]

Israel allegedly hits home of senior Hamas military leader killing family members...

"Palestinian reports: IDF targets home of Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif
According to Palestinian reports, the IDF attacked the home of Hamas military commander Mohammed Deif, in Khan Younis, killing his father, brother, children and other relatives."

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-10/

[NOVA Green]

LOL

https://twitter.com/TMZ/status/1711841607379460470?t=0oLV1D79cAuOlrGER1LuXw&...

Interesting job to get canceled from over this.

Does anyone under the age of 60 care about Playboy? Genuine question.

Yes actually, even beyond the whole "read the playboys for the interviews crowd".

True story: Have a Son-in-Law whose Father was a Doctor who married a Playboy Bunny from New Orleans.

He was a bit older than her, and we lived in their house in PDX, when they went back to GA for almost a year during his dying days.

Anyways without going into excessive personal data dump, asked him a couple months back when we first showed up to celebrate our latest Grandchild.

My Son-in-Law a bit of a lush, but apparently his Father gifted him a complete Playboy Collection that ends at minimum some time in the mid 2010s.

Not quite sure what this has to do with Gaza, but would imagine that this artist and individual contributor is not dependent on Playboy to keep revenue streams continuing.