NY-23 Special Election: November 3, 2009

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hoffman really underperformed in Hamilton county.

[ag]

That's the key: local GOP. Local GOP may do really well in the region. The question is, whether that would translate in the national GOP gains. I'd likely concede that for VA, but I have strong doubts about NY. The key to GOP regional resurgence is, at least, non-interference by the national party.

[Lunar]

One other thing - the GOP is performing much better in various local level races in NY than expected.  I see a lot of strength for them in that department, fwiw, not just in NY.

Interesting, the NY GOP is obviously not in the  same boat as Glenn Beck and understands that you need to localize your candidates when swimming upstream

[Nym90]

For once I agree with Sam. Their beloved teabagger candidate is going to lose in a district that the Republicans have held for decades. They can defeat all the unpopular governors they want (and the Democrats will surely pick off some unpopular GOP incumbents as well), but if they can't hold on to a seat like this they're not going to retake the House next year.

Let's not exaggerate.  Knocking off a moderate [or at least perceived as a moderate] candidate with a candidate who doesn't know or care about the local issues of the district, and having the moderate candidate endorse the Democrat has usually ended up in Democratic pickups. 

Reminds me of the Gilchrest-Kratovil-Harris fiasco.  Harris was actually from the district though, even if barely so.

Doesn't matter.  The actual numbers tell the tale - they always do.  That being said, a lot of Dede's voters look like Republicans who didn't get the memo.  Means the race would have been about 50-50 in the end, which is what this district is at the moment (PVI-wise)

I don't read too much into governor's races, honestly, on a national level.  But here's what I would say.

With Christie and the NJ Assembly, the answer is obvious.  The undecideds/Daggett's swung for him but still lack confidence in his abilities.  Henceforth, the voters make sure there's enough Democratic representation to counterbalance.

With McDonnell, my guess would be that the voters want to limit his mandate also.  However, his race looks awful similar to George Allen 1993.

Which is the reason why I said - generic R 2009 = generic R 2008, except for South and Appalachia.  But I would have said that after LA-04 and GA Sen.

BTW, don't knock PPP on polling - the rest of their results tonight are looking quite respectable except here and remember 1 in 20.

One other thing - the GOP is performing much better in various local level races in NY than expected.  I see a lot of strength for them in that department, fwiw, not just in NY.

Which shouldn't be too shocking, considering that Obama's approval rating and the difference between approve and disapprove in his approval ratings is almost identical to the 2008 results (within MoE at least). Nothing really has changed except for intensity of support or opposition.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

WTH. Fulton is mostly in - and Scozzafava gets 14% there. The core Republican areas are core big-R Republican, not Conservative.

Probably people just voting for the party ID

Or maybe they genuinely have no love for authoritarian conservatism, of the sort you and Hoffman peddle?

Then vote for the Democrat.  There aren't that many people willing to sacrifice their beliefs to make a point, especially when Scozzafava endorsed the Dem.  If they believed what Scozzafava believed, they'd have followed her in her endorsement - at least some would.  14% is too high to say that they just wanted to make a point.

And for the record, I would've voted for Scozzafva before she dropped out.

[ag]

Hoffman really underperformed in Hamilton county.

And Owens beat Obama there.

[Scam of God]

WTH. Fulton is mostly in - and Scozzafava gets 14% there. The core Republican areas are core big-R Republican, not Conservative.

Probably people just voting for the party ID

Or maybe they genuinely have no love for authoritarian conservatism, of the sort you and Hoffman peddle?

Then vote for the Democrat.  There aren't that many people willing to sacrifice their beliefs to make a point, especially when Scozzafava endorsed the Dem.  If they believed what Scozzafava believed, they'd have followed her in her endorsement - at least some would.  14% is too high to say that they just wanted to make a point.

And for the record, I would've voted for Scozzafva before she dropped out.

At least you now admit what you (and Hoffman and the entire New Right movement) really are.

[cinyc]

Hoffman really underperformed in Hamilton county.

Repeating myself:

Both Hamilton and Fulton counties are in the Albany DMA (TV market).  I doubt the race received as much attention there as in the Watertown, Syracuse and Plattsburgh/Burlington TV markets.  Many voters may not have even known that Dede dropped out.

It's probably the same pattern we saw in NY-20, where the counties not in the Albany DMA had significantly lower turnout.

[Eraserhead]

Time for them to call this.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

WTH. Fulton is mostly in - and Scozzafava gets 14% there. The core Republican areas are core big-R Republican, not Conservative.

Probably people just voting for the party ID

Or maybe they genuinely have no love for authoritarian conservatism, of the sort you and Hoffman peddle?

Then vote for the Democrat.  There aren't that many people willing to sacrifice their beliefs to make a point, especially when Scozzafava endorsed the Dem.  If they believed what Scozzafava believed, they'd have followed her in her endorsement - at least some would.  14% is too high to say that they just wanted to make a point.

And for the record, I would've voted for Scozzafva before she dropped out.

At least you now admit what you (and Hoffman and the entire New Right movement) really are.

And what is that?  And how are you putting me with Hoffman if I wouldn't have voted for him?

[Sam Spade]

One other thing - the GOP is performing much better in various local level races in NY than expected.  I see a lot of strength for them in that department, fwiw, not just in NY.

Interesting, the NY GOP is obviously not in the  same boat as Glenn Beck and understands that you need to localize your candidates when swimming upstream

True, except a number of the races I'm watching locally (along with Smash) were not supposed to be competitive, so it may be something that goes beyond candidate.  

For example, Suozzi being in danger is not on anyone's radar that I know of.  If he lost, it would be akin to a localized Republican wave (yes I know Nassau County's historic predilections, but still)

[Scam of God]

WTH. Fulton is mostly in - and Scozzafava gets 14% there. The core Republican areas are core big-R Republican, not Conservative.

Probably people just voting for the party ID

Or maybe they genuinely have no love for authoritarian conservatism, of the sort you and Hoffman peddle?

Then vote for the Democrat.  There aren't that many people willing to sacrifice their beliefs to make a point, especially when Scozzafava endorsed the Dem.  If they believed what Scozzafava believed, they'd have followed her in her endorsement - at least some would.  14% is too high to say that they just wanted to make a point.

And for the record, I would've voted for Scozzafva before she dropped out.

At least you now admit what you (and Hoffman and the entire New Right movement) really are.

And what is that?  And how are you putting me with Hoffman if I wouldn't have voted for him?

Because you both represent the same tyrannical impulse: an urge (by so-called "small government" conservatives) to use the power of the State to force their views upon unwilling minorities. Hoffman's defeat is the defeat of authoritarianism.

[ag]

WTH. Fulton is mostly in - and Scozzafava gets 14% there. The core Republican areas are core big-R Republican, not Conservative.

Probably people just voting for the party ID

Or maybe they genuinely have no love for authoritarian conservatism, of the sort you and Hoffman peddle?

Then vote for the Democrat.  There aren't that many people willing to sacrifice their beliefs to make a point, especially when Scozzafava endorsed the Dem.  If they believed what Scozzafava believed, they'd have followed her in her endorsement - at least some would.  14% is too high to say that they just wanted to make a point.

And for the record, I would've voted for Scozzafva before she dropped out.

14% is too high for pure error - but quite reasonable for dissatisfaction. They don't like Owens, sure - but they, probably, don't like, at least, what Hoffman stands for. These are the areas that haven't voted Dem, well... ever. Owens, on a bad day for the Dems nationally, is getting there more than any Dem presidential candidate since LBJ (I don't have congressional data handy), while a drop out candidate gets over 10%. It is very strange.

[ag]

Hoffman really underperformed in Hamilton county.

Repeating myself:

Both Hamilton and Fulton counties are in the Albany DMA (TV market).  I doubt the race received as much attention there as in the Watertown, Syracuse and Plattsburgh/Burlington TV markets.  Many voters may not have even known that Dede dropped out.

It's probably the same pattern we saw in NY-20, where the counties not in the Albany DMA had significantly lower turnout.

Why is then Owens getting more votesin Hamilton than any Dem presidential candidate since LBJ?

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

WTH. Fulton is mostly in - and Scozzafava gets 14% there. The core Republican areas are core big-R Republican, not Conservative.

Probably people just voting for the party ID

Or maybe they genuinely have no love for authoritarian conservatism, of the sort you and Hoffman peddle?

Then vote for the Democrat.  There aren't that many people willing to sacrifice their beliefs to make a point, especially when Scozzafava endorsed the Dem.  If they believed what Scozzafava believed, they'd have followed her in her endorsement - at least some would.  14% is too high to say that they just wanted to make a point.

And for the record, I would've voted for Scozzafva before she dropped out.

14% is too high for pure error - but quite reasonable for dissatisfaction. They don't like Owens, sure - but they, probably, don't like, at least, what Hoffman stands for. These are the areas that haven't voted Dem, well... ever. Owens, on a bad day for the Dems nationally, is getting there more than any Dem presidential candidate since LBJ (I don't have congressional data handy), while a drop out candidate gets over 10%. It is very strange.

I would attribute 9-10% to people just voting for the Republican candidate, and 4-5% voting for her knowing she dropped out but because they don't want to go for Owens or Hoffman.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

WTH. Fulton is mostly in - and Scozzafava gets 14% there. The core Republican areas are core big-R Republican, not Conservative.

Probably people just voting for the party ID

Or maybe they genuinely have no love for authoritarian conservatism, of the sort you and Hoffman peddle?

Then vote for the Democrat.  There aren't that many people willing to sacrifice their beliefs to make a point, especially when Scozzafava endorsed the Dem.  If they believed what Scozzafava believed, they'd have followed her in her endorsement - at least some would.  14% is too high to say that they just wanted to make a point.

And for the record, I would've voted for Scozzafva before she dropped out.

At least you now admit what you (and Hoffman and the entire New Right movement) really are.

And what is that?  And how are you putting me with Hoffman if I wouldn't have voted for him?

Because you both represent the same tyrannical impulse: an urge (by so-called "small government" conservatives) to use the power of the State to force their views upon unwilling minorities. Hoffman's defeat is the defeat of authoritarianism.

What does that have to do with me admitting what me and Hoffman "really are"?  I never talked about authoritarianism.  And how am I an authoritarian? lol

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Then vote for the Democrat.  There aren't that many people willing to sacrifice their beliefs to make a point, especially when Scozzafava endorsed the Dem.

Some of us aren't willing to vote for a Democrat, even if it is the right thing to do and important to the future of the country to do so.

(made especially for Joe's signature)

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

FOX just called it.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Then vote for the Democrat.  There aren't that many people willing to sacrifice their beliefs to make a point, especially when Scozzafava endorsed the Dem.

Some of us aren't willing to vote for a Democrat, even if it is the right thing to do and important to the future of the country to do so.

(made especially for Joe's signature)

I understand that, but that number is not as high as 14% - that's all I'm saying.

[Nym90]

Don, you gotta admit Owens was actually to the right of Scozzafava on several issues.

Not to say that promoting a big tent party maybe matters more than who you agree with the most in just one House race, but still.

[Sam Spade]

Don, you gotta admit Owens was actually to the right of Scozzafava on several issues.

Not to say that promoting a big tent party maybe matters more than who you agree with the most in just one House race, but still.

Democrats have actually been quite successful in this area of the world in recent years running candidates to the right of the GOP, now that you mention it.  The areas were more Republican than the district as a whole, however.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I guess FOX is the only one to call it so far.  I didn't think Hoffman had a chance at this point - is there a reason the other networks are hesitating?

[cinyc]

Why is then Owens getting more votesin Hamilton than any Dem presidential candidate since LBJ?

He didn't.  Obama received 1.64 points less of the vote than Owens, but turnout was much higher.  Obama received 1,184 votes to Owens' 888 (pending absentees, if not already counted).

Hamilton is a very small county.  1.64 points is about 35 voters.  Who knows?  Perhaps Owens has a vacation home there.

Hamilton doesn't have a website.  I don't know if they've already counted absentees - which also could account for Dede's better showing there. But I really think it may be TV-market driven.

[Lunar]

What will be funny is if/when some GOP types spin this loss arguing that the GOP candidate + Hoffman combined actually got the majority of the vote.

not that the Democrats have any spin possible for Virginia, with New Jersey we'll claim that all incumbents are unpopular right now and point to some mayoral races to justify it

[ag]

Why is then Owens getting more votesin Hamilton than any Dem presidential candidate since LBJ?

He didn't.  Obama received 1.64 points less of the vote than Owens, but turnout was much higher.  Obama received 1,184 votes to Owens' 888 (pending absentees, if not already counted).

Hamilton is a very small county.  1.64 points is about 35 voters.  Who knows?  Perhaps Owens has a vacation home there.

Yep, actually that's true - slip of tongue, wanted to correct that almost as soon as I wrote, but right at that moment the forum was slow loading on my machine, so I didn't bother. Thanks for correcting, though.

Still, the point is: Owens is doing extremely well by Hamilton county standards.