NY-23 Special Election: November 3, 2009

[ajc0918]

For once I agree with Sam. Their beloved teabagger candidate is going to lose in a district that the Republicans have held for decades. They can defeat all the unpopular governors they want (and the Democrats will surely pick off some unpopular GOP incumbents as well), but if they can't hold on to a seat like this they're not going to retake the House next year.

See Louisiana 2nd congressional district.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I'm losing hope.

[ag]

WTH. Fulton is mostly in - and Scozzafava gets 14% there. The core Republican areas are core big-R Republican, not Conservative.

[Scam of God]

WTH. Fulton is mostly in - and Scozzafava gets 14% there. The core Republican areas are core big-R Republican, not Conservative.

The Rockefellers are rebelling, bless them!

[Eraserhead]

I'm losing hope.

You should. It's essentially over.

PPP unleashed a Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary of '08 level fu ckup over here.

[cinyc]

72.73%+ (Probably all of Essex - or close to it)

Owens 49.00%   
Hoffman 45.28%
Scozzafava 5.71%   

Still stable.

[ag]

WTH. Fulton is mostly in - and Scozzafava gets 14% there. The core Republican areas are core big-R Republican, not Conservative.

The Rockefellers are rebelling, bless them!

Well, at least the true yank vote might be up for grabs in the Upstate.

[The Mikado]

For once I agree with Sam. Their beloved teabagger candidate is going to lose in a district that the Republicans have held for decades. They can defeat all the unpopular governors they want (and the Democrats will surely pick off some unpopular GOP incumbents as well), but if they can't hold on to a seat like this they're not going to retake the House next year.

See Louisiana 2nd congressional district.

You might want to reconsider that statement, unless you seriously want to compare Hoffman to William Jefferson.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

WTH. Fulton is mostly in - and Scozzafava gets 14% there. The core Republican areas are core big-R Republican, not Conservative.

Probably people just voting for the party ID

[War on Want]

For once I agree with Sam. Their beloved teabagger candidate is going to lose in a district that the Republicans have held for decades. They can defeat all the unpopular governors they want (and the Democrats will surely pick off some unpopular GOP incumbents as well), but if they can't hold on to a seat like this they're not going to retake the House next year.

Not only this but they really didn't make as many gains as expected in the legislatures of NJ and VA. The only reason why the GOP did about as good as expected in Virginia is because of Deeds and a few moderate candidates that basically campaigned as Democrats(correct me if I'm wrong NOVA residents).

So the Republicans fumbled the ball in New York two times this year and showed that they are going to have big difficulties in upstate New York and New England in 2010.

[Lunar]

For once I agree with Sam. Their beloved teabagger candidate is going to lose in a district that the Republicans have held for decades. They can defeat all the unpopular governors they want (and the Democrats will surely pick off some unpopular GOP incumbents as well), but if they can't hold on to a seat like this they're not going to retake the House next year.

Let's not exaggerate.  Knocking off a moderate [or at least perceived as a moderate] candidate with a candidate who doesn't know or care about the local issues of the district, and having the moderate candidate endorse the Democrat has usually ended up in Democratic pickups.  

Reminds me of the Gilchrest-Kratovil-Harris fiasco.  Harris was actually from the district though, even if barely so.

[Scam of God]

WTH. Fulton is mostly in - and Scozzafava gets 14% there. The core Republican areas are core big-R Republican, not Conservative.

Probably people just voting for the party ID

Or maybe they genuinely have no love for authoritarian conservatism, of the sort you and Hoffman peddle?

[Ronnie]

Kind of a bittersweet night for Republicans.

[War on Want]

For once I agree with Sam. Their beloved teabagger candidate is going to lose in a district that the Republicans have held for decades. They can defeat all the unpopular governors they want (and the Democrats will surely pick off some unpopular GOP incumbents as well), but if they can't hold on to a seat like this they're not going to retake the House next year.

See Louisiana 2nd congressional district.

I think you're confusing LA-2 with LA-6.

[CatoMinor]

For once I agree with Sam. Their beloved teabagger candidate is going to lose in a district that the Republicans have held for decades. They can defeat all the unpopular governors they want (and the Democrats will surely pick off some unpopular GOP incumbents as well), but if they can't hold on to a seat like this they're not going to retake the House next year.

yeah candidate that showed up a little bit later, that is kind of un-charismatic, doesent live in the district, and has scozzafava taking more of a percentage than the differance between owens ond Hoff is lsing. the GOP must be on the brink of collapse...

[ag]

For once I agree with Sam. Their beloved teabagger candidate is going to lose in a district that the Republicans have held for decades. They can defeat all the unpopular governors they want (and the Democrats will surely pick off some unpopular GOP incumbents as well), but if they can't hold on to a seat like this they're not going to retake the House next year.

Let's not exaggerate.  Knocking off a moderate [or at least perceived as a moderate] candidate with a candidate who doesn't know or care about the local issues of the district, and having the moderate candidate endorse the Democrat has usually ended up in Democratic pickups.  

Reminds me of the Gilchrest-Kratovil-Harris fiasco.  Harris was actually from the district though, even if barely so.

The key thing, this district might be holdable by the Dems. Some work is required, surely, but a moderate incumbent (hopefully, on the Armed Services) would have a decent chance.

[Eraserhead]

Somewhere Newt Gingrich is chuckling.

Sarah Palin, you're still a dumbass.

[Lief 🗽]

For once I agree with Sam. Their beloved teabagger candidate is going to lose in a district that the Republicans have held for decades. They can defeat all the unpopular governors they want (and the Democrats will surely pick off some unpopular GOP incumbents as well), but if they can't hold on to a seat like this they're not going to retake the House next year.

Let's not exaggerate.  Knocking off a moderate [or at least perceived as a moderate] candidate with a candidate who doesn't know or care about the local issues of the district, and having the moderate candidate endorse the Democrat has usually ended up in Democratic pickups.  

Reminds me of the Gilchrest-Kratovil-Harris fiasco.  Harris was actually from the district though, even if barely so.

Which leads one to believe that little has changed since 2008.

[ag]

WTH. Fulton is mostly in - and Scozzafava gets 14% there. The core Republican areas are core big-R Republican, not Conservative.

Probably people just voting for the party ID

Yes. But unless you believe they haven't switched on a radio in 72 hours, they are doing this because they are very unhappy.

[cinyc]

WTH. Fulton is mostly in - and Scozzafava gets 14% there. The core Republican areas are core big-R Republican, not Conservative.

The Rockefellers are rebelling, bless them!

Nah.  Both Hamilton and Fulton counties are in the Albany DMA (TV market).  I doubt the race received as much attention there as in the Watertown, Syracuse and Plattsburgh/Burlington TV market.  Many voters may not have even known that Dede dropped out. 

It's probably the same pattern we saw in NY-20, where the counties not in the Albany DMA had significantly lower turnout.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Somewhere Newt Gingrich is chuckling.

He's not the only one.

[Lunar]

For once I agree with Sam. Their beloved teabagger candidate is going to lose in a district that the Republicans have held for decades. They can defeat all the unpopular governors they want (and the Democrats will surely pick off some unpopular GOP incumbents as well), but if they can't hold on to a seat like this they're not going to retake the House next year.

Let's not exaggerate.  Knocking off a moderate [or at least perceived as a moderate] candidate with a candidate who doesn't know or care about the local issues of the district, and having the moderate candidate endorse the Democrat has usually ended up in Democratic pickups.  

Reminds me of the Gilchrest-Kratovil-Harris fiasco.  Harris was actually from the district though, even if barely so.

Which leads one to believe that little has changed since 2008.

the populists have gotten louder and better organized, not more numerous, certainly not in the North Country

[Sam Spade]

For once I agree with Sam. Their beloved teabagger candidate is going to lose in a district that the Republicans have held for decades. They can defeat all the unpopular governors they want (and the Democrats will surely pick off some unpopular GOP incumbents as well), but if they can't hold on to a seat like this they're not going to retake the House next year.

Let's not exaggerate.  Knocking off a moderate [or at least perceived as a moderate] candidate with a candidate who doesn't know or care about the local issues of the district, and having the moderate candidate endorse the Democrat has usually ended up in Democratic pickups.  

Reminds me of the Gilchrest-Kratovil-Harris fiasco.  Harris was actually from the district though, even if barely so.

Doesn't matter.  The actual numbers tell the tale - they always do.  That being said, a lot of Dede's voters look like Republicans who didn't get the memo.  Means the race would have been about 50-50 in the end, which is what this district is at the moment (PVI-wise)

I don't read too much into governor's races, honestly, on a national level.  But here's what I would say.

With Christie and the NJ Assembly, the answer is obvious.  The undecideds/Daggett's swung for him but still lack confidence in his abilities.  Henceforth, the voters make sure there's enough Democratic representation to counterbalance.

With McDonnell, my guess would be that the voters want to limit his mandate also.  However, his race looks awful similar to George Allen 1993.

Which is the reason why I said - generic R 2009 = generic R 2008, except for South and Appalachia.  But I would have said that after LA-04 and GA Sen.

BTW, don't knock PPP on polling - the rest of their results tonight are looking quite respectable except here and remember 1 in 20.

One other thing - the GOP is performing much better in various local level races in NY than expected.  I see a lot of strength for them in that department, fwiw, not just in NY.

[cinyc]

76.30% in:

Owens 49.07%   
Hoffman 45.35%
Scozzafava 5.58%   

[cinyc]

81.33% in-
Owens 49.12%      
Hoffman 45.37%
Scozzafava 5.51%

With mainly St. Lawrence out, Hoffman's done.