Pennsylvania 2010 - The Official Thread

[TeePee4Prez]

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/05/republican-toomey-welcomes-principled-liberal-sestak-into-democratic-primary-against-specter.php

And it's honest as well as political

Yep 

I loved the statement.

Funny thing is I agree with most of it too.  Of course, there will be some older people saying they know Specter and what he brings to the state, etc.  Tired old arguments that won't hold up with me.  Now a Specter-Toomey General.. well I'll likely vote Specter, but the 3rd parties will get a fairer than usual hearing from me.

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1304

Specter  - 46%
Toomey - 37%


Not impressive, Arlen. Below 50% and Toomey is consistently in the mid 30s (good for someone not as well known).

Arlen at 51% approval (which is down), only 42% say he deserves to be re-elected (also down) and he only has a 46% favorable rating (61% haven't heard enough about Toomey).

In sad news for people like me, Casey gets his best approval yet - 56% to 21%. Rendell has surprisingly high ratings - 54% to 37%.

In a Dem primary, Specter only has 50% to Sestak's 21%. Toomey is at 38% to Gerlach's 10% and Luksik's 3%.

[Keystone Phil]

And I'd assume a huge SEPA organization couldn't hurt.

We're working on it. 

[Verily]

Democrats are much more undecided than Republicans in that poll. This is obviously a factor of Specter's "liberal credentials" not being totally set in stone yet; a move leftward would actually help him in the polls right now. It also means Specter has more room to improve in the polls than Toomey.

[Keystone Phil]

It also means Specter has more room to improve in the polls than Toomey.

What? 61% said they don't even know enough about Toomey; Specter is well known and his best ratings still come from Dems.

[Keystone Phil]

Also from the poll...

Sestak - 37%

Toomey - 35%

[Verily]

It also means Specter has more room to improve in the polls than Toomey.

What? 61% said they don't even know enough about Toomey; Specter is well known and his best ratings still come from Dems.

Yes, and he's a Democrat now. If Democrats are the main group undecided, it's because there are a bunch of liberals who don't like Specter but will end up voting for him, not because they're seriously considering Toomey.

[Keystone Phil]

It also means Specter has more room to improve in the polls than Toomey.

What? 61% said they don't even know enough about Toomey; Specter is well known and his best ratings still come from Dems.

Yes, and he's a Democrat now. If Democrats are the main group undecided, it's because there are a bunch of liberals who don't like Specter but will end up voting for him, not because they're seriously considering Toomey.

Well, that's a very simplistic way of looking at it. How do you know that they're a bunch of liberals? They could be western Dems that have always been wary of Specter.

Plus, 61% saying they haven't heard enough about Toomey is huge. He clearly has room to build.

But let's say the remaining undecided Dems are a bunch of liberals. That's also horrible news for Arlen. Look at his primary numbers - he's just at 50% and some guy that most of the state has never heard of is already at 21%. Let Sestak and Specter slug it out. Some of us are going to love every minute of it. As I've said before, now Sestak has the chance to be the "moderate slayer" and turn off moderates/Independents. Or Specter eeks out a win (I do believe this primary will be a close one) and let the liberal "purists" stay home in November or skip that office when voting (like many of us on the right were going to do).

The bottom line here is that this race is not over. It hasn't even begun. And that goes for both the General and the primary battle. Sestak is telling the "Washington insiders" to go screw themselves and the liberal activists in this state - while fans of Obama - are going to love it. They don't want the machine telling them what to do (especially when that machine is telling them to shut up and get behind a man who was a registered Republican for decades).

[TeePee4Prez]

It also means Specter has more room to improve in the polls than Toomey.

What? 61% said they don't even know enough about Toomey; Specter is well known and his best ratings still come from Dems.

Yes, and he's a Democrat now. If Democrats are the main group undecided, it's because there are a bunch of liberals who don't like Specter but will end up voting for him, not because they're seriously considering Toomey.

Well, that's a very simplistic way of looking at it. How do you know that they're a bunch of liberals? They could be western Dems that have always been wary of Specter.

Plus, 61% saying they haven't heard enough about Toomey is huge. He clearly has room to build.

But let's say the remaining undecided Dems are a bunch of liberals. That's also horrible news for Arlen. Look at his primary numbers - he's just at 50% and some guy that most of the state has never heard of is already at 21%. Let Sestak and Specter slug it out. Some of us are going to love every minute of it. As I've said before, now Sestak has the chance to be the "moderate slayer" and turn off moderates/Independents. Or Specter eeks out a win (I do believe this primary will be a close one) and let the liberal "purists" stay home in November or skip that office when voting (like many of us on the right were going to do).

The bottom line here is that this race is not over. It hasn't even begun. And that goes for both the General and the primary battle. Sestak is telling the "Washington insiders" to go screw themselves and the liberal activists in this state - while fans of Obama - are going to love it. They don't want the machine telling them what to do (especially when that machine is telling them to shut up and get behind a man who was a registered Republican for decades).

Which is why I loved Specter in the GOP.  We now have to deal with this sh**t.  If it were Sestak alone with Toomey, Sestak would win most of the moderates and if it were Sestak-Specter, you'd be sure to draw the CP splitting the conservative base.

[Democratic Hawk]

According to this poll, more Democrats (5%) than Republicans (4%) consider Toomey too liberal!

[Keystone Phil]

Which is why I loved Specter in the GOP.  We now have to deal with this sh**t.  If it were Sestak alone with Toomey, Sestak would win most of the moderates

Again, stop being so sure of things over a year in advance when we're talking about moderates/swing voters.

Amazing how some here were so eager for Toomey to beat Specter because Toomey would turn off moderates since he beat a "moderate." Now if Sestak beats the "moderate," well, it doesn't matter.

Just wait and see, folks.

[Keystone Phil]

Actually, PA 7 might be lost for the Dems even if they nominate Lentz - Pat Meehan (current Gubernatorial candidate, former U.S. Attorney and former Delaware county DA) is mulling a run - http://www.pa2010.com/2009/05/exclusive-meehan-mulling-a-run-for-sestaks-congressional-seat/

[TeePee4Prez]

Actually, PA 7 might be lost for the Dems even if they nominate Lentz - Pat Meehan (current Gubernatorial candidate, former U.S. Attorney and former Delaware county DA) is mulling a run - http://www.pa2010.com/2009/05/exclusive-meehan-mulling-a-run-for-sestaks-congressional-seat/

The district has moved rapidly Democratic.  He's no shoo-in.  I don't think the district has any "lights out" candidates anymore for the GOP.  Actually it became lean Dem once Weldon left by default.  I'll admit there are "lights out" candidates in the 8th, but not so much the 7th.

[Mr.Phips]

Actually, PA 7 might be lost for the Dems even if they nominate Lentz - Pat Meehan (current Gubernatorial candidate, former U.S. Attorney and former Delaware county DA) is mulling a run - http://www.pa2010.com/2009/05/exclusive-meehan-mulling-a-run-for-sestaks-congressional-seat/

The district has moved rapidly Democratic.  He's no shoo-in.  I don't think the district has any "lights out" candidates anymore for the GOP.  Actually it became lean Dem once Weldon left by default.  I'll admit there are "lights out" candidates in the 8th, but not so much the 7th.

Look at the update:  They were given a "no" when asked if Meehan was considering. 

[Keystone Phil]

Actually, PA 7 might be lost for the Dems even if they nominate Lentz - Pat Meehan (current Gubernatorial candidate, former U.S. Attorney and former Delaware county DA) is mulling a run - http://www.pa2010.com/2009/05/exclusive-meehan-mulling-a-run-for-sestaks-congressional-seat/

The district has moved rapidly Democratic.  He's no shoo-in.  I don't think the district has any "lights out" candidates anymore for the GOP.  Actually it became lean Dem once Weldon left by default.  I'll admit there are "lights out" candidates in the 8th, but not so much the 7th.

Look at the update:  They were given a "no" when asked if Meehan was considering. 

1) I never said he was a shoo in. It would be a close race.

2) Not surprised that "they" are saying no now. Once Sestak officially gets in the Senate race and if Meehan isn't getting traction in the polls for Governor...well...take a guess as to what's likely to happen.

[Mr.Phips]

Actually, PA 7 might be lost for the Dems even if they nominate Lentz - Pat Meehan (current Gubernatorial candidate, former U.S. Attorney and former Delaware county DA) is mulling a run - http://www.pa2010.com/2009/05/exclusive-meehan-mulling-a-run-for-sestaks-congressional-seat/

The district has moved rapidly Democratic.  He's no shoo-in.  I don't think the district has any "lights out" candidates anymore for the GOP.  Actually it became lean Dem once Weldon left by default.  I'll admit there are "lights out" candidates in the 8th, but not so much the 7th.

Look at the update:  They were given a "no" when asked if Meehan was considering. 

1) I never said he was a shoo in. It would be a close race.

2) Not surprised that "they" are saying no now. Once Sestak officially gets in the Senate race and if Meehan isn't getting traction in the polls for Governor...well...take a guess as to what's likely to happen.

If I were Democrats, I would be begging Sestak to stay in the House seat.  If Meehan did run, I agree that he would likely be the favorite.  Democrats have enough House seats to worry about and dont need this one to add to them.  If I were Rendell or another high up Democrat,  I would make it clear that Sestak would get no funding if he ran against Specter.  This can easily be done. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Actually, PA 7 might be lost for the Dems even if they nominate Lentz - Pat Meehan (current Gubernatorial candidate, former U.S. Attorney and former Delaware county DA) is mulling a run - http://www.pa2010.com/2009/05/exclusive-meehan-mulling-a-run-for-sestaks-congressional-seat/

The district has moved rapidly Democratic.  He's no shoo-in.  I don't think the district has any "lights out" candidates anymore for the GOP.  Actually it became lean Dem once Weldon left by default.  I'll admit there are "lights out" candidates in the 8th, but not so much the 7th.

Look at the update:  They were given a "no" when asked if Meehan was considering. 

1) I never said he was a shoo in. It would be a close race.

2) Not surprised that "they" are saying no now. Once Sestak officially gets in the Senate race and if Meehan isn't getting traction in the polls for Governor...well...take a guess as to what's likely to happen.

If I were Democrats, I would be begging Sestak to stay in the House seat.  If Meehan did run, I agree that he would likely be the favorite.  Democrats have enough House seats to worry about and dont need this one to add to them.  If I were Rendell or another high up Democrat,  I would make it clear that Sestak would get no funding if he ran against Specter.  This can easily be done. 

This is about a D+4 district.  Even with Meehan, Lentz is a strong enough candidate to hold the seat.

[Lunar]

I don't think PA is as affected by off-year elections in this type of district as the rest of the country.  The machine is still working

I don't think the Democrats are really sweating a single House seat in 2010.  Gillibrand's special election made news because it was a litmus test for the new GOP brand [came up inconclusive as far as the media is concerned]. 

Democrats are more concerned, better or for worse, with whether Specter will vote against the filibuster on key issues in the Senate than keeping a house seat.

  I don't care, we can blow through a dozen or two house seats as long as we maintain our majority in the Senate and still be able to pass the same legislation.  Obviously it's counterproductive to long-term interests, but a House single seat is hardly any reason to be concerned unless it's symbolic of something else. 

Should the GOP be concerned with Mark Kirk running for higher office because the Democrats will get the seat?  hell no.




I just became a fan of Sestak on Facebook yesterday! I'm probably closer to Arlen on almost every policy issue, but I just don't know what he'll do in 2011

[Keystone Phil]

I don't think PA is as affected by off-year elections in this type of district as the rest of the country.  The machine is still working

The GOP has a machine down there and Meehan is basically their savior.

[Lunar]

True dat.  My point was that this is effectively a normal election, it's not like there is a large black population in the 7 that shows up on election day for Barack but not someone else or something like other districts

[Ronnie]

Lunar, why do you have such an ugly picture of Specter in your signature.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Lunar, why do you have such an ugly picture of Specter in your signature.

He looks like a corpse.

[Ronnie]

Lunar, why do you have such an ugly picture of Specter in your signature.

He looks like a corpse.

Most Jews (or people in general) look something like that when they get old.  I was just referring to the high image quality that revealed his wrinkles and oldness.

[Lunar]

Lunar, why do you have such an ugly picture of Specter in your signature.

Do you have a pretty one I can use?

[Lief 🗽]

Lunar, why do you have such an ugly picture of Specter in your signature.

Do you have a pretty one I can use?