Pennsylvania 2010 - The Official Thread

[Lunar]

Kortz is still in the race against Specter in the primary, pretty meaningless since he doesn't even remotely challenge Specter's base in the SE

http://www.pa2010.com/2009/04/kortz-im-still-in-it/




new liberal blog is up too:
http://specterwatch.blogspot.com/

[Lunar]

Nate Silver proves again he doesn't know what he's talking about in PA politics in his most recent post:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/05/is-sestak-right-choice-for-left.html


How could he ignore Torsella when looking for alternatives to Sestak?!, and then speak broadly of a more liberal Democratic challenger to Specter when Schwartz and Shapiro have already stepped out... and then he's looking at PA's Congressional delegation [although briefly] and pointing out that there's not really more liberal options than Sestak.

[Keystone Phil]

Let's say the most recent poll in the Corbett vs. Meehan vs. Gerlach race is accurate (and that's being generous but hear me out).

Tom Corbett has been said to have support a "mile wide and an inch deep." This poll would prove that. He's sitting at a dismal 22%. Meehan and Gerlach are barely on the radar screen (not shocking as of now). Basically, with Corbett polling so terribly in our primary, this is a wide open race.

A lot of people believe Gerlach really would prefer Governor to Senator. Toomey has an organization. He can sit Gerlach down, tell him to avoid the Senate primary (which he likely wouldn't win) and Toomey can help make him Governor. Toomey could make him instantly legitimate in the race he'd likely prefer to stay in.

Kortz is still in the race against Specter in the primary, pretty meaningless since he doesn't even remotely challenge Specter's base in the SE

http://www.pa2010.com/2009/04/kortz-im-still-in-it/

Kortz can be a problem if Sestak and/or Torsella stay in. In a close race, Kortz can be the spoiler for Arlen. The west has never been good for Arlen and that sentiment is present in bother western Republicans and Dems.

[Lunar]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0509/Ridge_considering_campaign_against_Specter.html

[© tweed]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0509/Ridge_considering_campaign_against_Specter.html

I think he would lose to Toomey

[Rowan]

I hope that happens. I would support Ridge in a heartbeat.

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0509/Ridge_considering_campaign_against_Specter.html

I think he would lose to Toomey

He would.

Funny that Ridge now says he'll consider it just days after saying he'd never run for the Senate.

[Lunar]

And Toomey said he was running for governor, PA politicians seem to like lyingz

[Keystone Phil]

And Toomey said he was running for governor, PA politicians seem to like lyingz

There's a difference between switching what offices you're running for (based on a drastic change of circumstances) and saying you do not have plans to ever run for the Senate. 

[justfollowingtheelections]

Sestak is a dream candidate for us Democrats.  God I hope he runs...

Uh...you need to realize that he'd run to Specter's left and then he'd become the "moderate slayer." That would be a serious problem.

then rolled over Toomey in the general.

Which wouldn't happen especially after beating Specter in the primary.

If anyone can survive that title it's a guy with Sestak's military credentials and his victories in a red district.

[Keystone Phil]

If anyone can survive that title it's a guy with Sestak's military credentials and his victories in a red district.

PA 7 isn't really a Republican district anymore - it's full of RINOs and moderate Republicans that went Dem in two horrible GOP years.

By the way, using that logic, Toomey could survive, too. He was a conservative Congressman who made his mark on fiscal/economic issues in a swing district with heavy blue collar influences.

[justfollowingtheelections]

If anyone can survive that title it's a guy with Sestak's military credentials and his victories in a red district.

PA 7 isn't really a Republican district anymore - it's full of RINOs and moderate Republicans that went Dem in two horrible GOP years.

By the way, using that logic, Toomey could survive, too. He was a conservative Congressman who made his mark on fiscal/economic issues in a swing district with heavy blue collar influences.

Hey if you think Toomey is electable or that Sestak won't win because he will run to the left of Specter, good for you man!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If anyone can survive that title it's a guy with Sestak's military credentials and his victories in a red district.

PA 7 isn't really a Republican district anymore - it's full of RINOs and moderate Republicans that went Dem in two horrible GOP years.

By the way, using that logic, Toomey could survive, too. He was a conservative Congressman who made his mark on fiscal/economic issues in a swing district with heavy blue collar influences.

Hey if you think Toomey is electable or that Sestak won't win because he will run to the left of Specter, good for you man!

Keystone Phil has to admit that based upon the evidence so far, Specter is to the right of Casey, who won by 18 points against the most awesome Senator of all time.

[Keystone Phil]

If anyone can survive that title it's a guy with Sestak's military credentials and his victories in a red district.

PA 7 isn't really a Republican district anymore - it's full of RINOs and moderate Republicans that went Dem in two horrible GOP years.

By the way, using that logic, Toomey could survive, too. He was a conservative Congressman who made his mark on fiscal/economic issues in a swing district with heavy blue collar influences.

Hey if you think Toomey is electable or that Sestak won't win because he will run to the left of Specter, good for you man!

Keystone Phil has to admit that based upon the evidence so far, Specter is to the right of Casey, who won by 18 points against the most awesome Senator of all time.

Casey...who is a Casey and ran in a great year and had an opponent who, despite being "the most awesome Senator of all time," gave his opponents plenty of ammo. 

[Lunar]

Casey is also more fitting for the aggregate PA electorate in some ways than Specter, even if Specter is further to the right.  Casey's pro-life, pro-EFCA, more consistent ...  it's not just a centrist pissing contest

[TeePee4Prez]

Casey is also more fitting for the aggregate PA electorate in some ways than Specter, even if Specter is further to the right.  Casey's pro-life, pro-EFCA, more consistent ...  it's not just a centrist pissing contest

Stop assuming PA is a pro-life state.  It usually polls about the national average on the issue.  In fact of the "Big Ten poll" taken during the election, Illinois was the only state more pro-choice than PA.  Gerrymandering seems to pack pro-choice voters into a few state legislative districts for some reason.  I mean if you look at PA 182 House district, I'm sure it's 95% pro-choice.  If you look at many others, it's probably in the 40s.  This is why I don't buy the "States' Rights" argument on the issue.

[Keystone Phil]

In fact of the "Big Ten poll" taken during the election, Illinois was the only state more pro-choice than PA.

Which would have screamed "bullshit" at everyone but yourself.

[Lunar]

Casey is also more fitting for the aggregate PA electorate in some ways than Specter, even if Specter is further to the right.  Casey's pro-life, pro-EFCA, more consistent ...  it's not just a centrist pissing contest

Stop assuming PA is a pro-life state. 

I'm not, I was trying to imply that Casey was actually to the right of Specter on some issues and that appeals to some swing demographics, electorally

[Keystone Phil]

“If we had pursued the war on cancer, which President Nixon declared in 1970, Jack Kemp might be alive today,” Specter said. “This medical research has prolonged or saved many lives, including mine.”


http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0509/22026.html


Classy guy.

[Lunar]

Congressman Sestak impressive on CNN. Visiting him tomorrow.


http://twitter.com/SEIU_AndyStern/status/1688101180



a shot across the bow

[Badger]

Wow! That's a BIG warning shot. Jim Roddey is the godfather of the GOP moderate/Wall Street wing in the greater Pittsburgh area. His endorsement here is huge.

I guess its not impossible for Gerlach to still win a primary banking on large margins in the SE, but to even be competitive with Toomey in the SW (remember how well he ran against Specter there in 04) would absolutely require the support of folks like Jim Roddey.

Again, BIG score for Toomey IMHO.

The SE won't be enough. That's not where these races are won (in GOP primaries). Plus, Toomey has been big out west (even though he's from the east) since 2004. That's why Roddey's endorsement isn't really that surprising. His people want it. It's just a sign that the establishment can't really block Toomey as much as they might want.

Yep. When I said "not impossible" I really was playing optomistic devil's advocate, assuming Gerlach could maybe roll up huge numbers in the SE while staying at least competative elsewhere outside the Lehigh Valley, but this is still HIGHLY optomistic.

[/quote] By the way, badger, I didn't know you were a fellow Pennsylvanian. Welcome! 
[/quote]

Thanks Phil. I'm actually transplanted to a rural part of the Buckeye State for a decade and a half now, but was born and raised in North Hills (northern suburbs of Pittsburgh for the rest of you), and my entire extended family is in the greater Pgh area still. Actually had the (um, think Badger--neutral-sounding adjective...ah, got it) experience of having your political hero as my congressman. I still follow politics closely out there though (and most places I guess--heck, I've been lurking here over 2 and a half years before posting).

Ohioan or not, I still bleed black and gold. GO PENS!!

[Lief 🗽]

Congressman Sestak impressive on CNN. Visiting him tomorrow.


http://twitter.com/SEIU_AndyStern/status/1688101180



a shot across the bow

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elL8ZaMd-no&feature=player_embedded

There's the clip of Sestak on CNN, if people are interested. I was impressed, especially that he didn't try to beat around the bush or triangulate in his criticism of Specter; he clearly laid out his argument against Specter's candidacy in the Democratic primary and made a lot of very strong points.

[Lunar]

I am very impressed with his ability to substantively answer questions and in a publicly accessible way... better than most presidential candidates and almost all Senators.  The other time I saw Sestak he performed a lot poorer.

[Keystone Phil]

On Face The Nation, this morning, Specter said he disagreed with some of his own votes. Meaning he had changed position on them since voting. They may not be what he meant but thats definately what it will seem like when it gets clipped into Toomey's ads.

LOL if true!

[Purple State]

On Face The Nation, this morning, Specter said he disagreed with some of his own votes. Meaning he had changed position on them since voting. They may not be what he meant but thats definately what it will seem like when it gets clipped into Toomey's ads.

LOL if true!

When asked if he would adequately represent the Democrats on FtN (and when he made his press announcement earlier in the week), he said that over his tenure as Senator he has made over 10,000 votes and so no shock that some people wouldn't agree with the way he has voted on this or that. He doesn't even agree with his voting record 100% anymore (i.e. he has changed over the years, as people do).

So far it has been a pretty effective punch-line, rather than a gaffe. You guys have to stop drinking your own Kool-Aid and read up on this stuff or you'll be convinced one way and be sorely mistaken.