Pennsylvania 2010 - The Official Thread

[Keystone Phil]

I would most certainly hope he doesn't go unopposed.

He would be (from major opposition). That being said, it's looking like he won't switch. He's probably falling for the ALF-CIO's party switching pledge. Delicious.

[Keystone Phil]

To quote Trunk Man (from our local political paper)...

"Word on the street is he [Toomey] has already secured the commitment of many influencial Elephant Ward Leaders, potential candidates and assorted Philly movers and shakers. This is not good news for Senator Arlen Specter."


If he has several ward leaders (and influencial ones at that) in Philly, Specter is done here. I haven't heard of many others backing him and I'm very curious who they are. I'll find out soon enough, I guess. The "movers and shakers" list would be interesting to see as well.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I'm still having trouble believing some of this. Either of the following is at work.

1. I don't believe Specter won't switch parties. Surely if all of these things seem to be lining up against him, he would know that he can't win this primary, especially if his Philly base is eroding.

2. A lot of this feel good news for Toomey coming out of these sources isn't exactly true. Surely if the entire establishment was lining up against Specter, he would be more open to switching parties.

3. He's just playing this party switching as a game and switches at the last minute.

4. He actually believes the unions will switch their people for him and win the GOP primary that way.

I don't get it. Right now it seems like he's walking right into a landslide defeat, which would be humiliating to a senator who's been around as long as Specter has and one who has as big of an ego as he does.

[Keystone Phil]

1. I don't believe Specter won't switch parties. Surely if all of these things seem to be lining up against him, he would know that he can't win this primary, especially if his Philly base is eroding.

This is the same as your third point...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I never said the entire establishment is lining up against Specter. Significant people are though.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's what he has to be thinking at this point unless he's going to vote against Card Check (which is possibly just as much of a shot in the foot).

[Torie]

To quote Trunk Man (from our local political paper)...

"Word on the street is he [Toomey] has already secured the commitment of many influencial Elephant Ward Leaders, potential candidates and assorted Philly movers and shakers. This is not good news for Senator Arlen Specter."


If he has several ward leaders (and influencial ones at that) in Philly, Specter is done here. I haven't heard of many others backing him and I'm very curious who they are. I'll find out soon enough, I guess. The "movers and shakers" list would be interesting to see as well.

Can't you fit the registered Republicans in the city of Philly itself into a something only slightly larger than a phone booth?  It would seem to me the burb GOP influentials would be more salient here.

[Lunar]

Those ward leaders would still be an essential part of his establishment support, and PA is an establishment, machine state, especially for primaries.

And Phillie's population is big enough that it matters

[Keystone Phil]

To quote Trunk Man (from our local political paper)...

"Word on the street is he [Toomey] has already secured the commitment of many influencial Elephant Ward Leaders, potential candidates and assorted Philly movers and shakers. This is not good news for Senator Arlen Specter."


If he has several ward leaders (and influencial ones at that) in Philly, Specter is done here. I haven't heard of many others backing him and I'm very curious who they are. I'll find out soon enough, I guess. The "movers and shakers" list would be interesting to see as well.

Can't you fit the registered Republicans in the city of Philly itself into a something only slightly larger than a phone booth?  It would seem to me the burb GOP influentials would be more salient here.

It's even smaller now but here's the amount of votes cast in the 2004 primary - 37,000

22,000 for Specter (60%) and 15,000 for Toomey (40%)

Tell me that doesn't make a difference. And also realize that Philly lost a lot of Republicans, too, for the 2007 Mayoral and 2008 Presidential primaries. Those that stayed are obviously more loyal, partisan Republicans. Granted, they may also have ties to the establishment but I doubt that those types are in the majority.

Those ward leaders would still be an essential part of his establishment support, and PA is an establishment, machine state, especially for primaries.

Bingo

I can't wait to find out who the other leaders are that aren't backing Arlen. This is just too good. Like I said, we have our rebel leaders but if these people are really influential, this thing is finished. We could see close to 60% for Toomey in Philly (in the primary, of course) this time around!

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

What if Mr. Toomey announces he isn't running?

[Lunar]

What if Mr. Toomey announces he isn't running?

Unlikely he'd drive so much support from other likely Specter challengers by floating his name so seriously this time, it'd be a pretty douchey and an ideologically-AND-pragmatically anti-Toomey thing to do.  Also, if Specter votes for some particularly anti-business version of the EFCA, I don't know if Toomey could explain to his political network why he did that without a personal tragedy.  Personal ambition for another office probably wouldn't count.

But I mean, GOP fundraisers and activists in PA are eager for anybody, someone else with less stature would emerge.  Of course, someone who was less electable (more scary to moderates than, yes, Toomey), someone with less connections, and someone with less name recognition would have a harder time knocking of Specter. 

But the primaries are fairly far away.  Assuming Toomey wasn't in cahoots with Specter or doesn't have some tragedy happen to him, someone else with substantial support will emerge.

[Holmes]

Sen. Arlen Specter said Tuesday that he will not run for reelection in 2010 as a Democrat, but might run as an Independent.

Almost as good as retirement.

[Keystone Phil]

Sen. Arlen Specter said Tuesday that he will not run for reelection in 2010 as a Democrat, but might run as an Independent.

Almost as good as retirement.

LOL yeah. I just saw this. This guy has to know better...

What if Mr. Toomey announces he isn't running?

He's running. As I mentioned before, there was rumor of a deal between Toomey and Specter (made awhile back) that Specter would support him for Governor. I've also pointed out why that deal made little sense but whatever. Even if there was a deal, that was before Specter's antics. Toomey can't keep jumping back and forth. He can't say, "Eh, I'm going to do the Governor thing again." It would piss off too many people. To be honest, I'd be very angry as well. With this Toomey Senate bid all but official, I've committed to Meehan for Governor. I don't want to have to go back on that because Toomey wants to play games. All that being said, he isn't.

[TeePee4Prez]

To quote Trunk Man (from our local political paper)...

"Word on the street is he [Toomey] has already secured the commitment of many influencial Elephant Ward Leaders, potential candidates and assorted Philly movers and shakers. This is not good news for Senator Arlen Specter."


If he has several ward leaders (and influencial ones at that) in Philly, Specter is done here. I haven't heard of many others backing him and I'm very curious who they are. I'll find out soon enough, I guess. The "movers and shakers" list would be interesting to see as well.

Can't you fit the registered Republicans in the city of Philly itself into a something only slightly larger than a phone booth?  It would seem to me the burb GOP influentials would be more salient here.

Not really.  Northeast Philly still has 3 GOP State Reps, but one of them is a sure flip when he retires (Taylor) and the other 2 will be hotly contested, but the GOP would be in the running if they were to leave (Perzel, O'Brien).  Also, the 26th Ward in South Philly was McCain's only Ward win.  One thing that has surprised me is unlike the moderate to liberal suburban Republicans that switched to the Democrats over the past 20 years is that you don't have many conservative Democrats in NE/South Philly switching to the Republican party.  I know a fair, but not huge number of people are Dems due to their union affiliation, city job, etc. but have pretty conservative politics otherwise.  On the other hand NE/South Philly only seem conservative compared to what's around it, we ain't Alabama by any stretch.   

[Keystone Phil]

On the other hand NE/South Philly only seem conservative compared to what's around it, we ain't Alabama by any stretch.   

Right, we're not Alabama but the Republicans in this city tend to be conservative, not moderate or liberal. Those types followed the Bush and Santorum's orders in 2004. Those types were more likely to listen to their ward leader/the city GOP in 2004. The Toomey campaign didn't really target Philly but naturally did well (in areas around me in the far NE). This is why, as I said in another thread, Philly is a possible Specter county in the primary. It is in no way a guarantee. It's going to be close.

[TeePee4Prez]

On the other hand NE/South Philly only seem conservative compared to what's around it, we ain't Alabama by any stretch.   

Right, we're not Alabama but the Republicans in this city tend to be conservative, not moderate or liberal. Those types followed the Bush and Santorum's orders in 2004. Those types were more likely to listen to their ward leader/the city GOP in 2004. The Toomey campaign didn't really target Philly but naturally did well (in areas around me in the far NE). This is why, as I said in another thread, Philly is a possible Specter county in the primary. It is in no way a guarantee. It's going to be close.

I agree with you to a point, but Philadelphia Republicans tend to be more conservative socially, not so much economically which Toomey is.  You are right Toomey will probably win those voters this time around however.  I also think he'd win a primary.

[Torie]

Will Pubbies in PA vote for Toomey in a primary if polls show him a substantial loser in the General, while Specter is ahead of the Dem?  Is the spirit of Seppuku in their blood?

[Keystone Phil]

On the other hand NE/South Philly only seem conservative compared to what's around it, we ain't Alabama by any stretch.   

Right, we're not Alabama but the Republicans in this city tend to be conservative, not moderate or liberal. Those types followed the Bush and Santorum's orders in 2004. Those types were more likely to listen to their ward leader/the city GOP in 2004. The Toomey campaign didn't really target Philly but naturally did well (in areas around me in the far NE). This is why, as I said in another thread, Philly is a possible Specter county in the primary. It is in no way a guarantee. It's going to be close.

I agree with you to a point, but Philadelphia Republicans tend to be more conservative socially, not so much economically which Toomey is.  You are right Toomey will probably win those voters this time around however.  I also think he'd win a primary.

Oh, yeah. Obviously. Philly Republicans are notoriously populist (voting on social/law and order issues) but you'll also find economic conservatives in the mix.

Will Pubbies in PA vote for Toomey in a primary if polls show him a substantial loser in the General, while Specter is ahead of the Dem?  Is the spirit of Seppuku in their blood?

I think so. It might not be as much of a blow out but Specter's time is up. You don't know how many Republicans would seriously rather have a Dem than Specter...

[Torie]

I think I would find living in PA frustrating Phil.   I suspect I would  be estranged from both parties.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Yeah. I don't think I could stand living with a group who'd rather have a Democrat over someone like Specter. Arlen's vote on the stimulus made me angry, but it's not like the Democrat would've voted against it if he/she was in office.

[Lief 🗽]

http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/employee-free-choice-act/rendell-will-throw-his-full-weight-behind-democrat-against-specter/

Well, that's cool, provided that he isn't lying.

[Keystone Phil]

http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_ave/2009/03/specter-im-running-as-republican.html


Sen. Arlen Specter released this statement today following a Hill report this morning where the GOP lawmaker raised the possibility of running as an independent next year.

"To eliminate any doubt, I am a Republican and I am running for re-election in 2010 as a Republican on the Republican ticket," Specter said in a statement.


but...

He added: "I’m not really giving it any thought at all. It is a possibility in the sense that almost anything is a possibility. But I’m not planning to run as an independent."

Yeah. I don't think I could stand living with a group who'd rather have a Democrat over someone like Specter. Arlen's vote on the stimulus made me angry, but it's not like the Democrat would've voted against it if he/she was in office.

...

What don't you get about there being more to this?

http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/employee-free-choice-act/rendell-will-throw-his-full-weight-behind-democrat-against-specter/

Well, that's cool, provided that he isn't lying.

Of course. He has to say that, Lief. Privately, he's a very good friend of Arlen's and a vote against Card Check won't change that.

By the way, it looks like Specter will vote against it since he keeps saying he's running as a Republican and plans on being the decisive vote on Card Check. Absolutely hilarious.

[TeePee4Prez]

http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_ave/2009/03/specter-im-running-as-republican.html


Sen. Arlen Specter released this statement today following a Hill report this morning where the GOP lawmaker raised the possibility of running as an independent next year.

"To eliminate any doubt, I am a Republican and I am running for re-election in 2010 as a Republican on the Republican ticket," Specter said in a statement.


but...

He added: "I’m not really giving it any thought at all. It is a possibility in the sense that almost anything is a possibility. But I’m not planning to run as an independent."

Yeah. I don't think I could stand living with a group who'd rather have a Democrat over someone like Specter. Arlen's vote on the stimulus made me angry, but it's not like the Democrat would've voted against it if he/she was in office.

...

What don't you get about there being more to this?

http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/employee-free-choice-act/rendell-will-throw-his-full-weight-behind-democrat-against-specter/

Well, that's cool, provided that he isn't lying.

Of course. He has to say that, Lief. Privately, he's a very good friend of Arlen's and a vote against Card Check won't change that.

By the way, it looks like Specter will vote against it since he keeps saying he's running as a Republican and plans on being the decisive vote on Card Check. Absolutely hilarious.

Specter votes nay on Card Check, he can kiss his union support goodbye.  You know if he wins the GOP nomination, there will be a Constitution candidate from the right effectively giving almost any Democrat an easy win.  There is no Bush or Santorum to hold GOP votes from going to a CP candidate.  And in PA (see Peg Luksik and she may very well be the nominee), that could be as much as 15 points.  Specter's best political move at this point is to change back to a Democrat.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...

What don't you get about there being more to this?[/quote]

I get it. I get that conservatives in Pennsylvania feel that Specter has wronged them for over 30 years. I get that they are angry with him and would love to see him go down in a humiliating defeat. I get that they feel like he hasn't been a voice for them. If I'm missing something else, let me know..

From an outsiders perspective, I still don't understand it, but I'm not a Pennsylvania conservative. If I was in PA, I'd probably be a Specter supporter because he lines up more with my views than Toomey, but as I said before, I wouldn't care this time if Specter lost. I think PA needs someone new, but it will be difficult, but not impossible, to get Toomey elected in a state like PA.

[Keystone Phil]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...

What don't you get about there being more to this?

I get it. I get that conservatives in Pennsylvania feel that Specter has wronged them for over 30 years. I get that they are angry with him and would love to see him go down in a humiliating defeat. I get that they feel like he hasn't been a voice for them. If I'm missing something else, let me know..

From an outsiders perspective, I still don't understand it, but I'm not a Pennsylvania conservative. If I was in PA, I'd probably be a Specter supporter because he lines up more with my views than Toomey, but as I said before, I wouldn't care this time if Specter lost. I think PA needs someone new, but it will be difficult, but not impossible, to get Toomey elected in a state like PA.
[/quote]

Many don't see much of a difference and are tired of helping this guy. I wouldn't vote for someone like Schwartz, Sestak, Murphy, Shapiro, etc. but I'd definitley vote for Wagner and maybe even Torsella. Many agree with me.

Specter votes nay on Card Check, he can kiss his union support goodbye.  You know if he wins the GOP nomination, there will be a Constitution candidate from the right effectively giving almost any Democrat an easy win.  There is no Bush or Santorum to hold GOP votes from going to a CP candidate.  And in PA (see Peg Luksik and she may very well be the nominee), that could be as much as 15 points.  Specter's best political move at this point is to change back to a Democrat.

Luksik can't do that unless she drops out of the GOP primary. PA law says that a candidate cannot run for the same office in the General if he or she loses a primary for that office earlier in the year.

[TeePee4Prez]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...

What don't you get about there being more to this?

I get it. I get that conservatives in Pennsylvania feel that Specter has wronged them for over 30 years. I get that they are angry with him and would love to see him go down in a humiliating defeat. I get that they feel like he hasn't been a voice for them. If I'm missing something else, let me know..

From an outsiders perspective, I still don't understand it, but I'm not a Pennsylvania conservative. If I was in PA, I'd probably be a Specter supporter because he lines up more with my views than Toomey, but as I said before, I wouldn't care this time if Specter lost. I think PA needs someone new, but it will be difficult, but not impossible, to get Toomey elected in a state like PA.

Many don't see much of a difference and are tired of helping this guy. I wouldn't vote for someone like Schwartz, Sestak, Murphy, Shapiro, etc. but I'd definitley vote for Wagner and maybe even Torsella. Many agree with me.

Specter votes nay on Card Check, he can kiss his union support goodbye.  You know if he wins the GOP nomination, there will be a Constitution candidate from the right effectively giving almost any Democrat an easy win.  There is no Bush or Santorum to hold GOP votes from going to a CP candidate.  And in PA (see Peg Luksik and she may very well be the nominee), that could be as much as 15 points.  Specter's best political move at this point is to change back to a Democrat.

Luksik can't do that unless she drops out of the GOP primary. PA law says that a candidate cannot run for the same office in the General if he or she loses a primary for that office earlier in the year.
[/quote]

You'd vote for Torsella over Specter?  You do know he's pro-choice.

Could Luksik win a GOP primary?  Or would she do better as a CP nominee and still get a teen-ish percentage of the vote?

[Keystone Phil]

You'd vote for Torsella over Specter?  You do know he's pro-choice.

...

You do know that's not my only area of disagreement with Specter, right?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If she's Specter's only challenger, yes, she could. That won't be the case though.