Pennsylvania 2010 - The Official Thread

[Marokai Backbeat]

Could someone please explain to me why Specter is a goner in the primary?  I know he only won by 2% in 2004.  What has changed since then?

The first thing that pops off the top of my head is the fact that alot of Democrats now are Republicans that bailed during the 2008 campaign season. Dems racked up alot of registration numbers all over the country and alot of those numbers came from former Republicans. With the primary being, as far as i know, closed/semi-open, it makes the primary electorate alot more Conservative.

[Keystone Phil]

With the primary being, as far as i know, closed/semi-open, it makes the primary electorate alot more Conservative.

We have a totally closed system. Yet another reason why Specter is finished. He tried to get the state legislature to allow Independents to vote in the primary. It went no where because 1) the Dems don't want to help Specter win his primary as a Republican and 2) the Republican members (of the State Senate especially) don't want Specter this time around.

[Smash255]

Could someone please explain to me why Specter is a goner in the primary?  I know he only won by 2% in 2004.  What has changed since then?

Specter had some conservative support in the state in 04 with Santorum and Bush campaigning for him, and it did help Specter a bit.  On top of that a decent amount of Specter's base has simply left the GOP.  The Republican Party in the state is quite a bit more conservative than it was in 2004.  Specter's strongest support came from moderate to liberal Rockefller type Republicans in suburban Philly.  They are no longer registered Republicans, and PA has a closed Primary.

[Marokai Backbeat]

With the primary being, as far as i know, closed/semi-open, it makes the primary electorate alot more Conservative.

We have a totally closed system. Yet another reason why Specter is finished. He tried to get the state legislature to allow Independents to vote in the primary. It went no where because 1) the Dems don't want to help Specter win his primary as a Republican and 2) the Republican members (of the State Senate especially) don't want Specter this time around.

Thanks, I didn't know if it was completely closed or not. I just knew Dems couldn't participate.

[Smash255]

Could someone please explain to me why Specter is a goner in the primary?  I know he only won by 2% in 2004.  What has changed since then?

2) Tons of Republicans that made up the Specter base (more moderate to liberal Republicans in the SE) have left the party. We're talking thousands.

In the SE

April 2004 GOP 995,509
April 2004 Dem 1,283,114

Now  GOP   912,079
Now  Dem  1,638,124

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I'm not arguing that Toomey is better in terms of electability but here's some facts to consider next time anyone says that PA is a safe GOP seat with Arlen as the nominee - http://patownhall.com/article/4100

I'm not arguing that Specter is unbeatable in the general election, but he does carry that name recognition that neither Toomey nor Lusik has. It's sort of like Fritz Hollins getting reelected in SC term after term, or when we elected Strom Thurmond for another term when he was 93 and could barely function. It is just a tradition to vote for him.

That said, he's pretty much shot his electability with both sides by flirting with the Democrats and then coming out opposing card check. But he ain't winning the primary, so it's moot.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm not arguing that Specter is unbeatable in the general election, but he does carry that name recognition that neither Toomey nor Lusik has. It's sort of like Fritz Hollins getting reelected in SC term after term, or when we elected Strom Thurmond for another term when he was 93 and could barely function. It is just a tradition to vote for him.

And that tradition is getting a little too old for people.

The polls show that people on both sides are tired of him. Name recognition doesn't really matter but if it really does, it's a double edged sword here.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I'm not arguing that Specter is unbeatable in the general election, but he does carry that name recognition that neither Toomey nor Lusik has. It's sort of like Fritz Hollins getting reelected in SC term after term, or when we elected Strom Thurmond for another term when he was 93 and could barely function. It is just a tradition to vote for him.

And that tradition is getting a little too old for people.

The polls show that people on both sides are tired of him. Name recognition doesn't really matter but if it really does, it's a double edged sword here.

Exactly. If he somehow does win the primary, he will lose in the general because of the reasons you listed. I expect he'd also lose his union support because of card check. He's screwed either way. He's a fool for not switching.

[TeePee4Prez]

Could someone please explain to me why Specter is a goner in the primary?  I know he only won by 2% in 2004.  What has changed since then?

2) Tons of Republicans that made up the Specter base (more moderate to liberal Republicans in the SE) have left the party. We're talking thousands.

In the SE

April 2004 GOP 995,509
April 2004 Dem 1,283,114

Now  GOP   912,079
Now  Dem  1,638,124

Wow!  Unless this is really an off year and only the Republicans show up in the General, Specter or whomever gets the nomination has an uphill battle.  I know I'm gonna be called a partisan hack, but I'll go out on a limb and say the seat in Lean to Strong Dem unless Obama screws up badly.  I will however say that we'll probably lose a few House seats nationwide.

[Smash255]

Could someone please explain to me why Specter is a goner in the primary?  I know he only won by 2% in 2004.  What has changed since then?

2) Tons of Republicans that made up the Specter base (more moderate to liberal Republicans in the SE) have left the party. We're talking thousands.

In the SE

April 2004 GOP 995,509
April 2004 Dem 1,283,114

Now  GOP   912,079
Now  Dem  1,638,124

Wow!  Unless this is really an off year and only the Republicans show up in the General, Specter or whomever gets the nomination has an uphill battle.  I know I'm gonna be called a partisan hack, but I'll go out on a limb and say the seat in Lean to Strong Dem unless Obama screws up badly.  I will however say that we'll probably lose a few House seats nationwide.

I agree, though Specter at least has some chance in the General (though he won't make it there) Toomey on the other hand, unless Obama is down in the 30's somewhere as virtually no chance.

[TeePee4Prez]

Could someone please explain to me why Specter is a goner in the primary?  I know he only won by 2% in 2004.  What has changed since then?

2) Tons of Republicans that made up the Specter base (more moderate to liberal Republicans in the SE) have left the party. We're talking thousands.

In the SE

April 2004 GOP 995,509
April 2004 Dem 1,283,114

Now  GOP   912,079
Now  Dem  1,638,124

Wow!  Unless this is really an off year and only the Republicans show up in the General, Specter or whomever gets the nomination has an uphill battle.  I know I'm gonna be called a partisan hack, but I'll go out on a limb and say the seat in Lean to Strong Dem unless Obama screws up badly.  I will however say that we'll probably lose a few House seats nationwide.

I agree, though Specter at least has some chance in the General (though he won't make it there) Toomey on the other hand, unless Obama is down in the 30's somewhere as virtually no chance.

Specter used to enjoy strong union support in General Elections.  Even with them, such as the 1992 election, he almost lost. 

[Keystone Phil]

And please note that in 1992, a Libertarian candidate drew a lot of support from conservatives fed up with Specter. I think he got about 4% which almost doomed Arlen.

[Smash255]

Could someone please explain to me why Specter is a goner in the primary?  I know he only won by 2% in 2004.  What has changed since then?

2) Tons of Republicans that made up the Specter base (more moderate to liberal Republicans in the SE) have left the party. We're talking thousands.

In the SE

April 2004 GOP 995,509
April 2004 Dem 1,283,114

Now  GOP   912,079
Now  Dem  1,638,124

Wow!  Unless this is really an off year and only the Republicans show up in the General, Specter or whomever gets the nomination has an uphill battle.  I know I'm gonna be called a partisan hack, but I'll go out on a limb and say the seat in Lean to Strong Dem unless Obama screws up badly.  I will however say that we'll probably lose a few House seats nationwide.

I agree, though Specter at least has some chance in the General (though he won't make it there) Toomey on the other hand, unless Obama is down in the 30's somewhere as virtually no chance.

Specter used to enjoy strong union support in General Elections.  Even with them, such as the 1992 election, he almost lost. 

No question about that and he is in trouble in the General (providing the slim shot he gets there) but he can hold down the margins somewhat in the SE.  I'm not discounting the fact that some Republican voters in the T or west will refuse to vote for Specter, but they are more likely to skip the race or not show up than vote for someone like Murphy or Schwartz.  However, many of those in the SE who still support Specter, that don't like Toomey would do more than just refuse to vote for Toomey, they will vote for Murphy or Schwartz.

[TeePee4Prez]

And please note that in 1992, a Libertarian candidate drew a lot of support from conservatives fed up with Specter. I think he got about 4% which almost doomed Arlen.

Ehh, Lynn Yeakel got 46% even with her skeletons about tax problems and Specter's overwhelming union support. 

A Republican other than Specter who will most likely be the nominee (Toomey), would only win if there was a negative referendum against Obama.  The next factor will be the Governor's race.  2006 was a 1-2 punch for us with Rendell and Casey I'm not sure we'll have this time.   

[Keystone Phil]

And please note that in 1992, a Libertarian candidate drew a lot of support from conservatives fed up with Specter. I think he got about 4% which almost doomed Arlen.

Ehh, Lynn Yeakel got 46% even with her skeletons about tax problems and Specter's overwhelming union support.

Ok? It was also 1992. What's your point? 

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You almost certainly won't have the Gubernatorial race in your favor this time (unless you get Wagner). Otherwise, it's a toss up/lean GOP race. If you guys go with Knox, ha...

[TeePee4Prez]

And please note that in 1992, a Libertarian candidate drew a lot of support from conservatives fed up with Specter. I think he got about 4% which almost doomed Arlen.

Ehh, Lynn Yeakel got 46% even with her skeletons about tax problems and Specter's overwhelming union support.

Ok? It was also 1992. What's your point? 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You almost certainly won't have the Gubernatorial race in your favor this time (unless you get Wagner). Otherwise, it's a toss up/lean GOP race. If you guys go with Knox, ha...

I don't think Corbett's that popular.  Him vs. Wagner's lean Dem.

[Keystone Phil]

And please note that in 1992, a Libertarian candidate drew a lot of support from conservatives fed up with Specter. I think he got about 4% which almost doomed Arlen.

Ehh, Lynn Yeakel got 46% even with her skeletons about tax problems and Specter's overwhelming union support.

Ok? It was also 1992. What's your point? 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You almost certainly won't have the Gubernatorial race in your favor this time (unless you get Wagner). Otherwise, it's a toss up/lean GOP race. If you guys go with Knox, ha...

I don't think Corbett's that popular.  Him vs. Wagner's lean Dem.

1) Take a look at the results - http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=28&OfficeID=5

He overcame the horrible year while Dems were really aiming for him (because of Bonusgate). Will a Gubernatorial race be different? Absolutely. Corbett is more partisan and the nature of this type of race is obviously different. That being said, look at the numbers Corbett was able to get even around here. Someone told me his support (even among Republicans) is a mile wide but only an inch deep. Even so, this is a great starting point for him and this is coming from someone who strongly supports his major primary opponent.

2) I already said any race with Wagner as the Dem nominee is lean Dem.

[Keystone Phil]

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/thegaggle/archive/2009/04/09/specter-will-not-run-as-an-independent.aspx

Dem strategist (who wishes to remain unnamed) said Specter was a "God damn co-sponsor!" of Card Check - http://www.newsweek.com/id/192464/page/2


Best comment from that article...

"I certainly don't have any comment about him," John McCain said with a huff when a NEWSWEEK reporter asked for his thoughts on Specter last week.

[TeePee4Prez]

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/thegaggle/archive/2009/04/09/specter-will-not-run-as-an-independent.aspx

Dem strategist (who wishes to remain unnamed) said Specter was a "God damn co-sponsor!" of Card Check - http://www.newsweek.com/id/192464/page/2


Best comment from that article...

"I certainly don't have any comment about him," John McCain said with a huff when a NEWSWEEK reporter asked for his thoughts on Specter last week.

Surprised Mitch McConnell likes him and McCain doesn't.  You would think McCain and his "maverick" status would like someone like Arlen Specter.

[Lunar]

McCain takes on his own party for earmarks and wasteful spending, which is sort of what Specter's schtick is.

McConnell needs Specter's vote for legislation and is more diplomatic, part of being a "maverick" is speaking your mind :0

[Lunar]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/04/senate-rankings-april-2009-edition.html

Silver gives Toomey a 10% chance at the general (although he admits he's just pulling numbers out of his ass).  This sort of over-confidence could be costly

[Lief 🗽]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/04/senate-rankings-april-2009-edition.html

Silver gives Toomey a 10% chance at the general (although he admits he's just pulling numbers out of his ass).  This sort of over-confidence could be costly

Yeah, but he also gives Specter an 80% chance at the general if he wins the primary, which is ridiculous.

[Rowan]

Silver just pulls numbers out of his ass all the time anyway, nothing to see here.

[Keystone Phil]

Nate Silver - So ridiculous that he isn't even buying his bullshit!

[Lunar]

most of his other handicapping isn't bad