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  Talk Elections
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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1043949 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,501
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Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« on: August 27, 2010, 12:23:45 am »

I doubt he'll lose PA, and win OH and MO...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #1 on: September 07, 2010, 11:58:06 pm »

Oh god I can't wait until you see the Obama landslide on Election Night 2012. Find a GOP candidate who can campaign as charismatically and is as likable as Barack Obama and get back to me.

I'm not saying Obama won't get re-elected, but don't expect some epic 49 state sweep like Reagan in 1984. It is pointless to make predictions until we see
1) who the GOP nominee is and to a lessor extent the minor parties nominees;
2) The Un-employment numbers going into fall 2012; and
3) The situation in Afghanistan by 2012.

That being said, I do feel pretty confident with the following prediction: Indiana will not vote Obama twice and the GOP will Keep Kentucky & Alaska. despite Pbrowers maps insisting those two states will be in play lol.

1) This is almost irrelevent by this point. The GOP's best hope is Mitch Daniels, but I still haven't seen any speeches by him, and I doubt he will even run.
2) This, this here is the killer. If Employment numbers are trending into double digits then it's going to get a bit contested.
3) He can still blame the war on Bush, as easy as that would be, but it would still work relatively well.

 Indiana will be in play, unless Daniels gets the nod. And I hardly expect a 1984, perhaps at the most a re-play of 1964 if someone exceptionally insane gets the nod. I think it'll go GOP unless we get Newt/Barbour/Palin as nominee. If N/B/P is the nominee, then you are looking at this:

N/B/P v. Obama





I support Obama, but I'm not that optimistic.

I think GA or MS will go Dem before TN or KY do under Obama... but... I doubt any of them will.

Voters memories don't last long, and Obama needs to do better, and have a stronger argument than "it's Bush's fault" in order to win.

Anyone can be elected President with the right/wrong circumstances - it's far far too early to make calls either way.

Unemployment is already in double-digits in some states

36   TENNESSEE   9.8
39   GEORGIA   9.9
39   KENTUCKY   9.9
41   INDIANA   10.2
42   ILLINOIS   10.3
42   OHIO   10.3
44   OREGON   10.6
45   MISSISSIPPI   10.8
45   SOUTH CAROLINA   10.8
47   FLORIDA   11.5
48   RHODE ISLAND   11.9
49   CALIFORNIA   12.3
50   MICHIGAN   13.1
51   NEVADA   14.3

Some of those states will be crucial for Obama's re-election.

And for the War... ok palm Iraq off on Bush... but people don't care about Iraq now... they care about Afghanistan, and unfortunately Obama has taken full ownership of that s**tstorm.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2010, 01:58:04 am »

It wasn't recoverable the day after he was elected...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2010, 09:06:28 am »

I love it how everyone seems to know exactly how 2012 will pan-out...

Going by Gallup at this point he's level with Clinton and 2% ahead of Reagan at the same points in their presidencies... I'm sure people had written their political eulogies in 1982 and 1994... a lot can change... it might not... but it certainly can.

While his 'personal' approval remains in the 50s, there's always room for goodwill and positive movement.

I actually think his increased public exposure, rallying crowds and starting to get the message out.. has affected the numbers and I wouldn't be surprised if he's scraping 50% by Nov.... I also wouldn't be surprised if he's where he is now.

Plus, if the Reps commit political suicide, Obama just need to be more palatable than them...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2010, 08:22:27 pm »

I do mean favourability, but personal rating vs job rating...

I would love to know what the alternative to the stimulus should have been.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2010, 10:40:54 pm »

Apologies, the last favourable number I saw was 54/40 - and it wasn't that long ago...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2010, 11:04:05 pm »

The number you saw comes from either AP, Bloomberg, or Battleground.  Those pollsters are pretty hawkish on the difference between favorability and approval.

Every other poll, such as Rasmussen, Democracy Corps(D), NBC/WSJ, doesn't find that much difference between the ratings as do the three aforementioned pollsters.

But I still contend that asking about favorability after asking about approval is a prompt to respondents to answer the question differently.

I think there is a difference.

You can have a favourable opinion of someone, but not approve of the way they're handling the job. It's interesting, it's rarely the other way in the US.

It seems people can separate liking them as a person, from the job they do... but not consider them doing a good job but disliking them... which is what I felt for Kevin Rudd... I actually felt he was doing a good job, but I didn't like him very much...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2010, 11:33:43 pm »

The number you saw comes from either AP, Bloomberg, or Battleground.  Those pollsters are pretty hawkish on the difference between favorability and approval.

Every other poll, such as Rasmussen, Democracy Corps(D), NBC/WSJ, doesn't find that much difference between the ratings as do the three aforementioned pollsters.

But I still contend that asking about favorability after asking about approval is a prompt to respondents to answer the question differently.

I think there is a difference.

You can have a favourable opinion of someone, but not approve of the way they're handling the job. It's interesting, it's rarely the other way in the US.

It did happen in the later years of the Clinton White House.  People thought he was scum in his personal life, but did a good job as president.  So his job approval was higher than his favorability.



Good point...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #8 on: October 10, 2010, 04:59:39 pm »


Approval rating and the proportion of the vote you get against a specific opponent don't have that specific a correlation.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2010, 12:52:53 am »


Indeed you could, and it's probably correct there too in some cases...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2010, 06:17:18 am »

Interesting and highly optimistic... the Dems are not losing 11 senate seats.

Approval ratings against a generic mean nothing, and shouldn't be extrapolated out to draw such conclusions.

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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2010, 08:02:23 pm »

I've decided to rename 'Poundingtherock' 'floggingthedeadhorse'
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2010, 06:44:38 am »

Dear lord...

Nobody is comparing him to Bush I, but the comparisons between Reagan and Clinton are perfectly apt. In Clinton's case it was an angry right-wing populist movement that carried away the Dem majorities in 1994.

You simply won't accept ANY ideas that suggest that Obama could win in 2012. What is comes down to is what happens to the economy (and I know you want it to continue to flounder, for more homes to foreclosed upon and jobs lost) and who the Republicans put up. An angry protest movement will NOT send a Republican to the White House in 2013.

AND... I really hope that reasonable Republicans out there realise that there is a chance to win here, but you want to keep listening to the Tea Party and Glen Beck (and his John Birch Society buddies) and nominate someone whose only quality is that they're angry... YOU WILL LOSE.

Btw - I apologise if anyone is offended by this, but it's really unbelievably getting on my nerves.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2010, 05:38:06 pm »

Democrats pressing The Obumbler ot to run in 202

wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=220905

yes... that looks like an objective website... lol

Obama is not going to drop out... deal with it.

...if Hillary is going to be president (and I highly doubt it) it'll be in 2017 and no earlier. 
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2010, 05:07:55 pm »

...and what's your plan for the day after Christmas then?

Tongue I tease... you gave me the opening...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2010, 05:58:05 pm »

...and what's your plan for the day after Christmas then?

Tongue I tease... you gave me the opening...

To continue reading? I'm not religious at all. I'm an atheist/agnostic and hate the religious part of the GOP and is why I lean heavily liberal on societal issue. But I love foreign policy more. And I identify myself as fiscally conservative, too, so I line up with the Republicans - although I guess I'm a moderate by definition.

But there's something about Bush I really admire. His ability to change stances (against nation building in 2000 to promotion of democracies post 911) is admirable.

I just turned 13 in 2000, so I was too young to care, but after maturing the Wilsonian, Truman, and then Bush mentality has really appealed to me.

You can hate Bush's policies all you want. Even I think some were poorly executed.

But in my opinion, Bush was a real leader and that counts heavily in my mind considering the nation needed a leader.

This is where Obama has failed. Again, you can like or dislike his policies. I don't like them, of course. But whatever your opinion is on his policies, the fact is that he's a VERY POOR leader.

And for this reason alone, I'd pick Bush every time. History will judge him well. He's already getting more suppot. Just wait for 20 years down the line. Bush was a good president. And I feel bad for him and the unfair criticism he gets.

I was suggesting it'll be an easy read, so you'll have to find something to do the next day.

Hence, why I was teasing...

But in all likelihood, I'll buy it, I would love to see if the justification is more thoughtful and nuanced than it was when it was presented.

I'm not a fan of Bush (either social or foreign policy), but I will agree that Obama needs to be more forceful and determined.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2010, 07:26:07 pm »

Scientology is a religion because it says it is, same standard goes for Fox Tongue
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2010, 07:33:21 pm »

There actually are decent real journalists on Fox News... the prime-time headliners however, O'Reilly, Beck and Hannity all make a mockery of 'journalism"
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2010, 08:28:49 pm »

There actually are decent real journalists on Fox News... the prime-time headliners however, O'Reilly, Beck and Hannity all make a mockery of 'journalism"

Beck, for his part, does not claim to be a "journalist."

Thanks be for that.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #19 on: November 11, 2010, 06:50:58 pm »

Obama losing ME... come on.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #20 on: November 11, 2010, 07:41:26 pm »


Against "generic Republican"? Thankfully you lot will probably put up someone that makes 'generic Republican' look like Ted Kennedy.

why not??
hes in big trouble in NH why not behind in ME??

ME and NH, while having some similarities are not that alike politically, at the Presidential level ME has been roughly 7-8% more Democratic than NH.

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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #21 on: November 11, 2010, 07:58:57 pm »

why not??
hes in big trouble in NH why not behind in ME??

Because Maine hasn't voted Republican since 1988. This means Obama can't possibly lose Maine in 2012.

Claiming Maine would vote Republican in 2012 is as ridiculous as someone in 2006 claiming that Indiana and North Carolina would vote Democrat in 2008.

Or claiming that Reagan or Clinton were 'finished' in 1982 or 1994, as many did.

Keep in mind that I think 2008 was an electoral freak of nature - it was a perfect storm against the Republicans, and all rules were off. 
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #22 on: November 22, 2010, 07:52:40 pm »


Next...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #23 on: November 22, 2010, 08:14:28 pm »

It's a Zogby interactive poll...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #24 on: November 29, 2010, 11:40:47 pm »

It's job approval, not a match up...
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