|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 06, 2020, 08:23:04 am
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 123 124 125 126 127 [128] 129 130 131 132 133 ... 410 Print
Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1031128 times)
ConservativeIllini
Rookie
**
Posts: 104


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3175 on: December 14, 2009, 06:17:09 pm »

Posted on Pollster.com, Obama Approval in Wisconsin 60/37 (done by UW)

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/wi_obama_doyle_uwisc_10291120.php
Logged
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,348
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3176 on: December 14, 2009, 06:22:58 pm »


I find that hard to believe.
Logged
ConservativeIllini
Rookie
**
Posts: 104


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3177 on: December 14, 2009, 06:25:36 pm »

As do I...just figured I'd post as I saw it.  Not sure if its worth updating the map with a clearly sketchy poll
Logged
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,348
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3178 on: December 14, 2009, 06:26:52 pm »

As do I...just figured I'd post as I saw it.  Not sure if its worth updating the map with a clearly sketchy poll

pbrower will update it, since Obama has a 60% approval in it.
Logged
CatoMinor
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,014
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3179 on: December 14, 2009, 07:30:06 pm »

Rasmussen has obama at his lowest to date 44%.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.


Logged
BannedAndBitten
BaBuk
Newbie
*
Posts: 10


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3180 on: December 14, 2009, 07:57:58 pm »

The first and last black president (ha).
Logged
DariusNJ
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 416


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3181 on: December 14, 2009, 09:24:03 pm »


According to that poll, he has 54% approval among likely voters.

94% among Dems, 54% of independents, and 25% of Republicans approve. Probably too high, I think his approval in Wisconsin is around 50\50.
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3182 on: December 14, 2009, 10:08:34 pm »


According to that poll, he has 54% approval among likely voters.

94% among Dems, 54% of independents, and 25% of Republicans approve. Probably too high, I think his approval in Wisconsin is around 50\50.

And look at the dates 10/29-11/20. A month long poll is garbage.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,080
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3183 on: December 14, 2009, 10:41:30 pm »


According to that poll, he has 54% approval among likely voters.

94% among Dems, 54% of independents, and 25% of Republicans approve. Probably too high, I think his approval in Wisconsin is around 5050.

The poll is old, but it is clearly above 50%, even with "likely voters". That marginally breaks a tie. College-based polling takes time because it isn't professional. I'll go with "likely voters".





Because it is clearly not a December poll, it has the letter "K" for November. It must average with November polls.
Logged
Devilman88
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3184 on: December 14, 2009, 10:46:53 pm »

BUt the SUSA got a S... what a hack...
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,080
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3185 on: December 14, 2009, 11:26:20 pm »

BUt the SUSA got a S... what a hack...

The first state to be polled after one of those SUSA polls (Virginia) absolutely smashed the credibility of the SUSA poll. I have changed none of them before a new poll for the state was released.

The Wisconsin poll is already obsolete, and all in all it shows an average. . 
Logged
Devilman88
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3186 on: December 14, 2009, 11:32:12 pm »

BUt the SUSA got a S... what a hack...

The first state to be polled after one of those SUSA polls (Virginia) absolutely smashed the credibility of the SUSA poll. I have changed none of them before a new poll for the state was released.

The Wisconsin poll is already obsolete, and all in all it shows an average. . 

All, I hear is.. blah blah blah, I'm a hack, I'm a hack, I worship you Obama, blah, blah..

Say whatever you want, but we all know what you are..
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,391
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3187 on: December 15, 2009, 12:01:55 am »


According to that poll, he has 54% approval among likely voters.

94% among Dems, 54% of independents, and 25% of Republicans approve. Probably too high, I think his approval in Wisconsin is around 50\50.

The poll is old, but it is clearly above 50%, even with "likely voters". That marginally breaks a tie. College-based polling takes time because it isn't professional. I'll go with "likely voters".

So now a poll of likely voters for the 2010 midterms is OK?  About 50 pages back in this thread, you were rejecting polls of "likely voters" because "likely voters" in an off-year election aren't the same as likely voters in a presidential year.

Of course, half the polls on your map are probably of likely voters for 2009 or 2010, but you rarely ever pay attention to such things.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,080
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3188 on: December 15, 2009, 01:20:50 am »


According to that poll, he has 54% approval among likely voters.

94% among Dems, 54% of independents, and 25% of Republicans approve. Probably too high, I think his approval in Wisconsin is around 50\50.

The poll is old, but it is clearly above 50%, even with "likely voters". That marginally breaks a tie. College-based polling takes time because it isn't professional. I'll go with "likely voters".

So now a poll of likely voters for the 2010 midterms is OK?  About 50 pages back in this thread, you were rejecting polls of "likely voters" because "likely voters" in an off-year election aren't the same as likely voters in a presidential year.

Of course, half the polls on your map are probably of likely voters for 2009 or 2010, but you rarely ever pay attention to such things.


"Likely voters" in a midterm election are far closer to those of a Presidential election than are those in an odd-year election. For now, midterm elections matter far more than does the 2012 election.

The only state whose polls should remain affected by "likely voters, off year elections" is New Jersey. The other state, Virginia, has a December poll. 

For the aging Wisconsin poll, both the 60% and 54% polls of approval would have had the same effect because the Wisconsin poll is an average that goes between 50% and 55%. The exact tie was at something under 50%.

My method doesn't always create the highest possible value for Obama. Look at it this way: add 4% to approval and you get an estimate of the likely vote. 60% approval for Obama in Wisconsin? Does anyone reasonably expect Obama to win 60% or more of the vote for President in Wisconsin in 2012? Not I.  58%? That implies about a 16% spread, not far from the 2008 results.   
Logged
Carapace Clavicle Moundshroud
ShadowOfTheWave
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,064
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3189 on: December 15, 2009, 08:22:06 am »

Please go away.
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3190 on: December 15, 2009, 12:50:18 pm »

South Dakota(PPP)

Approve 41%
Disapprove 52%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SD_1215.pdf
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3191 on: December 15, 2009, 01:03:26 pm »

"Likely voters" in a midterm election are far closer to those of a Presidential election than are those in an odd-year election. For now, midterm elections matter far more than does the 2012 election.

Uh, not really.  Turnout in midterm years is closer to off-years, in both percent turnout and composition of the electorate.  What makes you think otherwise?
Logged
BannedAndBitten
BaBuk
Newbie
*
Posts: 10


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3192 on: December 15, 2009, 02:17:31 pm »

I disapprove immensely.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,749
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3193 on: December 15, 2009, 03:17:52 pm »

NY State (Quinnipiac)Sad

59% Approve
36% Disapprove

From December 7 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,692 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes 719 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1404
Logged
segwaystyle2012
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,366


Political Matrix
E: 9.68, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3194 on: December 15, 2009, 03:22:27 pm »

"Likely voters" in a midterm election are far closer to those of a Presidential election than are those in an odd-year election. For now, midterm elections matter far more than does the 2012 election.

Uh, not really.  Turnout in midterm years is closer to off-years, in both percent turnout and composition of the electorate.  What makes you think otherwise?

He lacks the ability to serve as an objective commentator/is a troll.
Logged
Umengus
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,215
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3195 on: December 15, 2009, 03:41:51 pm »

Civitas, isn't a very good polling company.. Just look at there 2008 polls... Just wait until the new PPP NC numbers come out.

Nevermind the fact that favorables and approval aren't the same thing. But apparently hacks don't care about things like that.

Civitas looks far more reliable than does SurveyUSA.


lol



Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,080
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3196 on: December 15, 2009, 04:14:28 pm »


Surprisingly good for Obama, considering that South Dakota is close to being majority-Republican:

Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................  35%
Republican......................................................   48%
Independent/Other..........................................  18%

and skewed "elderly" in population:

Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 15%
30 to 45........................................................... 21%
46 to 65........................................................... 44%
Older than 65.................................................. 20%

That Obama was able to get within 10% in South Dakota in 2008 looks all the more remarkable now.

NY State (Quinnipiac)Sad

59% Approve
36% Disapprove

From December 7 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,692 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes 719 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1404

Another SUSA poll from November 2009 crashes and burns. Is that luck or does my intuition about that batch of polls not apply west of the Appalachians yet?


Logged
segwaystyle2012
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,366


Political Matrix
E: 9.68, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3197 on: December 15, 2009, 05:19:45 pm »

Go away pbrower
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,080
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3198 on: December 15, 2009, 06:48:26 pm »


Criticize my analysis and expose my bias if you wish; I'm not leaving.
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3199 on: December 15, 2009, 06:48:59 pm »

I criticized your analysis and you just ignored me Sad
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 123 124 125 126 127 [128] 129 130 131 132 133 ... 410 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines