The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #3125 on: December 07, 2009, 02:33:40 PM »

Ignore the noise folks (whether positive or negative) - simply keep your eye on the trendline I've pointed out on both Gallup and Rasmussen.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3126 on: December 08, 2009, 11:34:45 AM »

South Carolina(PPP)

Approve 46%
Disapprove 49%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SC_1208.pdf
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #3127 on: December 08, 2009, 11:37:02 AM »

That's actually pretty high for South Carolina, assuming Obama is at 46-49% nationally. I'm not sure if it's a junk poll or not.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3128 on: December 08, 2009, 11:39:18 AM »

That's actually pretty high for South Carolina, assuming Obama is at 46-49% nationally. I'm not sure if it's a junk poll or not.

Rasmussen had it at 45% in South Carolina. The high black population surely helps his numbers.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3129 on: December 08, 2009, 11:50:05 AM »

The SC polls both look pretty odd given the national numbers but they are both from decent pollsters so who knows...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3130 on: December 08, 2009, 02:21:07 PM »

The two South Carolina polls suggest that the polls that recently showed him doing abysmally in Kentucky, Missouri and Virginia are even more suspect. Two polls don't imply an outlier.

As for South Carolina having a large black population -- so do Missouri and Virginia. (Kentucky doesn't).

Using Wikipedia's projection of electoral votes in 2012 and 2008 results, here's how the electoral votes look based on Obama winning certain states:

18. Pennsylvania            222
19. Minnesota                 242
20. New Hampshire        253
21. Iowa                         260
22. Colorado                   267   
23. Virginia                      280
24. Ohio                          299
25. Florida                       318
26. Indiana                     346
27. North Carolina           357
      NE-02                        358
28. Missouri                     368             
29. Montana                    371
30. Georgia                      387
31. North Dakota             390
32. Arizona                      402
33. South Dakota            405
34. South Carolina          414
      NE-01                        415
35. Texas                        453
36. West Virginia             458

South Carolina is the 34th state that Obama would win, which is not to say that he would win it, but if South Carolina is close in 2012, then the GOP nominee is in deep trouble.  To give some idea of how difficult South Carolina would be as a win for Obama in 2012 -- Texas is the next whole state for him to win.

I don't predict that such will be the order of victories or losses. But you get the idea with South Carolina if it is close; Obama wins Georgia and Arizona if he is close to winning South Carolina.

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Devilman88
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« Reply #3131 on: December 08, 2009, 02:50:17 PM »

Just because Obama is running higher the avg approval ratings in SC doesn't mean crap. SC has a high black population, so his approval ratings would be high.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3132 on: December 08, 2009, 02:51:15 PM »

South Carolina will NOT be close in 2012.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3133 on: December 08, 2009, 03:16:44 PM »
« Edited: December 08, 2009, 11:32:11 PM by pbrower2a »

South Carolina will NOT be close in 2012.

It's too early to say that South Carolina would be close or distant from being an Obama win. It wasn't close in 2008 unless one says that a margin less than 10% is "close".

I say, of course, that for the Republican nominee to win election, he must win South Carolina by a decisive margin.  

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No, it says much. South Carolina is much more conservative than the United States as a whole. It has an arch-conservative Governor (until he is impeached for reasons unrelated to his political decisions) and two right-wing Republican Senators. It has a predominantly-Republican delegation to the House of Representatives. So are conservatives in South Carolina beginning to believe that Obama "isn't that bad"? Why South Carolina and not somewhere else? If such is the perception in 2012, then Obama wins in a landslide in 2012.

That says something about last month's SUSA polls of several states, then, doesn't it? That's two different polls for South Carolina. Missouri and Virginia both have rather large black populations, too.

Oh -- in case you wonder why I haven't simply shown South Carolina with a pale yellow color, it's because the current poll averages with a recent one. The disapproval in South Carolina averages 51.5% between them.

Addendum: Alabama has the second-highest percentage of black people in its population among the fifty states, and Obama could lose the state by a margin of 70-30 in 2012... if people split on racial lines as they practically did in 2008 in Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi.





 
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3134 on: December 08, 2009, 03:41:04 PM »

Just because Obama is running higher the avg approval ratings in SC doesn't mean crap. SC has a high black population, so his approval ratings would be high.

I really don't get what this is supposed to mean. Pollsters generally know how to properly account for these things, certainly Rasmussen and PPP would.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3135 on: December 08, 2009, 03:53:01 PM »

Just because Obama is running higher the avg approval ratings in SC doesn't mean crap. SC has a high black population, so his approval ratings would be high.

I really don't get what this is supposed to mean. Pollsters generally know how to properly account for these things, certainly Rasmussen and PPP would.

I think his point(or at least mine) is that white Democrats are willing to disapprove of Obama while Black Democrats are not willing to do that. This makes his numbers here higher than in other southern states. Just a theory.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #3136 on: December 09, 2009, 01:37:01 AM »

Just because Obama is running higher the avg approval ratings in SC doesn't mean crap. SC has a high black population, so his approval ratings would be high.

I really don't get what this is supposed to mean. Pollsters generally know how to properly account for these things, certainly Rasmussen and PPP would.

I think his point(or at least mine) is that white Democrats are willing to disapprove of Obama while Black Democrats are not willing to do that. This makes his numbers here higher than in other southern states. Just a theory.

Yea, that is what I was trying to say. I have talk to alot of black folks and most of them just approve of Obama because he is black.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #3137 on: December 09, 2009, 01:50:53 AM »

Just because Obama is running higher the avg approval ratings in SC doesn't mean crap. SC has a high black population, so his approval ratings would be high.

I really don't get what this is supposed to mean. Pollsters generally know how to properly account for these things, certainly Rasmussen and PPP would.

I think his point(or at least mine) is that white Democrats are willing to disapprove of Obama while Black Democrats are not willing to do that. This makes his numbers here higher than in other southern states. Just a theory.

Even so, his floor in South Carolina based on that black support is lower than 46%.
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East Coast Republican
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« Reply #3138 on: December 09, 2009, 04:16:32 AM »

Who cares?

President's approval is below 50% and South Carolina is still a red state.  Get my attention when there is real news.

Oh and you're annoying Pbrower.  Stop copying and pasting threads.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3139 on: December 09, 2009, 09:31:58 AM »

Virginia(Rasmussen)

Approve 50%
Disapprove 50%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/virginia/54_in_virginia_oppose_health_care_plan
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Magic 8-Ball
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« Reply #3140 on: December 09, 2009, 10:46:01 AM »

It's about time somebody cut a map based on the random states provided in this thread so far

Look at what you did. Angry
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change08
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« Reply #3141 on: December 09, 2009, 10:48:00 AM »


Another good state poll, considering the national Rass number. Does anyone have any regional breakdowns for the last few of Rasmussen's national poll?
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Rowan
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« Reply #3142 on: December 09, 2009, 01:18:36 PM »

Ohio(Rasmussen)

Approve 46%
Disapprove 53%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/ohio/toplines/toplines_2010_ohio_governor_race_december_7_2009
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3143 on: December 09, 2009, 01:35:42 PM »
« Edited: December 09, 2009, 01:46:29 PM by pbrower2a »


One of the SUSA polls with strange numbers crashes and burns:



The pastel color for Virginia indicates that Obama is 50/50, a compromise for a tie at something under 50 (white) and approval of 50%+ (medium green). It's a Rasmussen poll, so if you are a conservative, then don't carp about it; Rasmussen's methodology tends to look better for Republicans than do other polls. I predict that we will see some interesting polls.

Such is consistent with today's Ohio poll, as Virginia was more D than was Ohio in 2008 by roughly 3%.



I'm now changing the "F" to a "Z" in Idaho. By no means can Idaho be a "bare loss" for Obama, and I figure that nobody is going to complain if I figure that Idaho is about as likely to disapprove of Obama as Utah shows. 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3144 on: December 10, 2009, 12:56:01 AM »

Connecticut (Rasmussen)Sad

57% Approve
43% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Connecticut was conducted by Rasmussen Reports December 7, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/connecticut/toplines/toplines_connecticut_senate_race_december_7_2009
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3145 on: December 10, 2009, 01:01:31 AM »

North Carolina (Civitas)Sad

48% Favorable
38% Unfavorable

This poll of 600 likely general election voters in North Carolina was conducted Dec 1-3, 2009 by Tel Opinion Research of Arlington, Virginia. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters we interviewed had to have voted in either the 2004, 2006 or 2008 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2008.

The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in either the 2004, 2006 or 2008 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2008.

http://www.jwpcivitasinstitute.org/media/press-releases/civitas-poll-obama-favorability-remains-under-50
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3146 on: December 10, 2009, 01:28:25 AM »

"Simple" updates, Connecticut and North Carolina:



Connecticut (Rasmussen)Sad

57% Approve
43% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Connecticut was conducted by Rasmussen Reports December 7, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/connecticut/toplines/toplines_connecticut_senate_race_december_7_2009
North Carolina (Civitas)Sad

48% Favorable
38% Unfavorable

This poll of 600 likely general election voters in North Carolina was conducted Dec 1-3, 2009 by Tel Opinion Research of Arlington, Virginia. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters we interviewed had to have voted in either the 2004, 2006 or 2008 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2008.

The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in either the 2004, 2006 or 2008 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2008.

http://www.jwpcivitasinstitute.org/media/press-releases/civitas-poll-obama-favorability-remains-under-50

No dip in either state. What SUSA showed last month in its statewide and some county polls looks to have either been a blip if not spurious, and otherwise...

Obama is in deep trouble if Connecticut is close, but if North Carolina is close, then the GOP nominee had better make plans for January 2013 that don't include being the focus of attention in Washington, DC on January 20, 2013. 

The huge gap between favorability and unfavorability in North Carolina suggests much confusion among about 12% of the electorate.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #3147 on: December 10, 2009, 01:41:38 AM »

Civitas, isn't a very good polling company.. Just look at there 2008 polls... Just wait until the new PPP NC numbers come out.
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Aquatic Ambience
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« Reply #3148 on: December 10, 2009, 05:19:10 AM »

It's about time somebody cut a map based on the random states provided in this thread so far

Look at what you did. Angry

Yes, damn you Joe Republic for creating this monster.
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Umengus
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« Reply #3149 on: December 10, 2009, 01:35:43 PM »

Ohio (Rasmussen)

approve: 46 %
dis: 50 %

It's interesting to observe that Rasmussen is no more the firm with the lowest obama popularity:

for yesterday:

Ras: 48 %
Q: 46 %
Marist: 46 %
CNN: 48 %
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