The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

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Wenzen Strategies National Poll

Obama: 41/47

http://wenzelstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/wnd-election-preview-full-crosstabs-3-23-2010.pdf

Oh wow, a poll for WorldNetDaily. That's as useful as a poll for Kos.

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In any event, the Kos poll is being questioned because of its far too favorable sample for Obama and the Democrat Party.

And WND hasn't got a sample which is far too unfavourable for Obama and the Democrats and far to favourable to the Republicans?

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The horror scenario for Republicans concerning 2012 is taking shape.

It's 2 and a half years out. Don't jump the gun.

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Iowa
42/50

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/Magellan-Iowa-General-Election-Survey-Release-0401102.pdf

Magellan (R)

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The horror scenario for Republicans concerning 2012 is taking shape.

It's 2 and a half years out. Don't jump the gun.

Understood, but you have to keep in mind the trends.  The economy is certainly trending towards recovery; especially in job creation.  This trend is not only prevalent right now during Obama's administration, but has been seen over many different Democratic administrations. 

Someone used to have a very useful graph of job creation during Republican and Democratic admins as their signature and I wish they still had it. 

Either way, the economy and job markets are most likely going to be at least somewhat  better in 2012 than when Obama took office.  If it's only meager improvement I could see a good GOP campaign stealing one... but I don't think we are going to see a gigantic rejection ala Jimmy Carter in 2012.   

True, but still Obama only gets good buzz from it if the media says he's done well jobs wise.

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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50% +1

Disapprove 49% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 32%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -1.


This is the first time Obama's positive number were ahead of his negative since 2/3/10.

It could be a bad sample.

Rass has had Obama up for the past few days. A trend possibly?

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NC (PPP)

46% Approve
48% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 603 North Carolinian voters from June 4th- 7th. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 4.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_610.pdf

Not bad.

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America isn't liking Obama as well as they used to. Fine.

They still prefer him to Palin-Romney-Huckabee-Gingrich-Johnson-Paul etcetc.

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It seems whenever the CEO of BP makes himself look like more of an a-hole, Obama gets a break.

Well yeah, people aren't stupid. Even though people know his address was awful, they know this isn't all the president's fault.

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Obama Gallup Approval rating June 2010:

46% Approve

46% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 43/42 (June 1978)

Reagan: 45/46 (June 1982)

Bush I: 68/18 (June 1990)

Clinton: 46/46 (June 1994)

Bush II: 73/20 (June 2002)

Interesting that Bush is the only reelected one with positive approval at this point and that the other two with positive approval didn't get reelected.

Reagan, Clinton, and Obama took big risks with the Presidency. Bush I had accomplished about everything that he wanted to accomplish as President within a year. I'm not sure that he really wanted the Soviet Union to collapse.

Dubya may have won Ohio "with a little help from his friends" in 2004, so we can't be completely sure that he won honestly.

Seriously...why is it so hard to accept that George W. Bush was elected then re-elected as President of the United States in the 2000s?

Well I know I wouldn't like to think my nation was that idiotic.

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Kentucky:
37/58

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_KY_706.pdf

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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 52% -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

Could we say the movement over the past few days is a trend, or just sample variation?

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Rasmussen (July 11)

49% Approve (+2)
50% Disapprove (-2)

27% Strongly Approve (nc)
40% Strongly Disapprove (-1)

When was Obama last at 49/50 with Rasmussen?

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MO (Rasmussen):

45% Approve
55% Disapprove

Link

Better than NH? Lol Rass.

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FOX News:

43% Approve
48% Disapprove

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/07/15/fox-news-poll-obama-job-approval-think-stimulus-helped/

This amused me:
Do you think are more responsible for the current condition of the economy?
30% Democratic policies, 41% Republican policies, 21% both equally

Do you think are more likely to improve the condition of the country?
37% Democratic policies, 40% Republican policies, 9% both equally

So, Republican policies got America in its current state and Republican policies will fix it... sure, that makes sense...

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WI (Univ. of Wisconsin Badger Poll):

Adults (500): 49-46
Likely Voters (297): 47-50

They think there's gonna be 60% turnout? LOL

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Does anyone want to predict what happens to polls after Wall Street Reform and the first stop of the gusher in the Gulf?

We shall see.

The change in the polls will probably be about the same as the change in the polls following the passage of Health Reform legislation.

In fact, the gusher in the Gulf tore at approval ratings for President Obama. I expect some rebound.

To be fair, it wasn't so much the gusher as the awful response in that White House televised address.

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Here's a good reason to avoid using polls by Magellan Strategies in maps of approval:

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/index.php/about/company-info

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You can trust that I will not be using their polls on my maps.
 

To be fair, since it's an (R) pollster and excluded, i'm just gonna point out that PPP is a (D) pollster...

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WOW WA is about as left wing as CA.

I'm not entirely sure on this poll, but realize WA is a different type of left than CA.  They tend to be more socially Liberal rather than fiscally Liberal outside of Seattle proper, so it could be that Obama's fiscal liberalism is hurting him among some of the Seattle Suburbanites.

This is contrasted to say, where I live, where the political center is roughly between "kill the Rich" and "just imprison the rich".

It also might be that he's losing center-left White voters, as California is much browner than Washington and voters here might just be supporting him on racial rather than direct political lines.

Although "outlier poll" is still the most likely explanation

Well, I've always viewed the left coast as the Hollywood, hippie wing of the democrat party. They are both in play for 2012 at this point though lol.

Obama won't lose CA or WA in 2012.

What ABOUT THE CURRENT TRENDS makes you say that?

I live in California. In Orange County, a swing area. Obama and the Democrats are still pretty popular here, and many people here still remember how the GOP screwed over our country and economy under Bush Jr. It would take a second Great Depression for the Republicans to win California and Washington in 2012.

Asking a few neighbours doesn't exactly tell you how the other few million people in the state will vote.

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http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-USArelations-210710.pdf

President Obama has a 64/21 approval rating in the UK. I love my country.

Bush's last recorded UK approval was June 2006 at 16/77.

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Side note: TN shouldn´t be included in your maps, because it´s an Excellent/Good etc. poll

New polls today:

Maryland (Gonzales Research) 51-38

Alabama (Rasmussen) 39-60

New Hampshire (PPP) 49-47

Obama going from negative to positive. It's been a while.

Virginia (Rasmussen) 49-50

Obama 4-5 points more than the national average... in Virginia?

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Wisconsin (Rasmussen): 51-48

LINK

2nd state to turn green this week (the other being NH).

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Lol, Oklahoma.

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Rasmussen (08/08/2010)

48% Approve (nc)
51% Disapprove (nc)

31% Strongly Approve (+1)
41% Strongly Disapprove (nc)

So, movement towards Obama?

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Indiana Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted August 4,5 and 7, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    19% Strongly approve
    20% Somewhat approve
    13% Somewhat disapprove
    47% Strongly disapprove
      2% Not sure

A shift of 4% is enough to move a state from a close contest to something on the fringe of contention. President Obama obviously wins Indiana only if he wins by a nationwide landslide or has a strong presence in the state from before the spring of 2012. If he sees himself losing Indiana by a 55-45 margin (which my system predicts based on a 39% approval), then he will shift resources to where they can do more good for him. 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  82
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 78
white                        too close to call  35
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  33
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  41
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 138


44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

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You've made Indiana green as opposed to yellow...