The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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CJK
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« Reply #5225 on: July 03, 2010, 01:13:09 PM »

Obama Gallup Approval rating June 2010:

46% Approve

46% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 43/42 (June 1978)

Reagan: 45/46 (June 1982)

Bush I: 68/18 (June 1990)

Clinton: 46/46 (June 1994)

Bush II: 73/20 (June 2002)
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Derek
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« Reply #5226 on: July 03, 2010, 02:18:24 PM »

Obama Gallup Approval rating June 2010:

46% Approve

46% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 43/42 (June 1978)

Reagan: 45/46 (June 1982)

Bush I: 68/18 (June 1990)

Clinton: 46/46 (June 1994)

Bush II: 73/20 (June 2002)


Rasmussen is more accurate because it collects a proportional amount of voters.
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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #5227 on: July 03, 2010, 04:03:12 PM »

Obama Gallup Approval rating June 2010:

46% Approve

46% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 43/42 (June 1978)

Reagan: 45/46 (June 1982)

Bush I: 68/18 (June 1990)

Clinton: 46/46 (June 1994)

Bush II: 73/20 (June 2002)


Interesting that Bush is the only reelected one with positive approval at this point and that the other two with positive approval didn't get reelected.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5228 on: July 03, 2010, 09:06:37 PM »
« Edited: July 04, 2010, 12:39:21 AM by pbrower2a »

Obama Gallup Approval rating June 2010:

46% Approve

46% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 43/42 (June 1978)

Reagan: 45/46 (June 1982)

Bush I: 68/18 (June 1990)

Clinton: 46/46 (June 1994)

Bush II: 73/20 (June 2002)


Interesting that Bush is the only reelected one with positive approval at this point and that the other two with positive approval didn't get reelected.

Reagan, Clinton, and Obama took big risks with the Presidency. Bush I had accomplished about everything that he wanted to accomplish as President within a year. I'm not sure that he really wanted the Soviet Union to collapse.

Dubya may have won Ohio "with a little help from his friends" in 2004, so we can't be completely sure that he won honestly.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #5229 on: July 03, 2010, 09:09:58 PM »

Obama Gallup Approval rating June 2010:

46% Approve

46% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 43/42 (June 1978)

Reagan: 45/46 (June 1982)

Bush I: 68/18 (June 1990)

Clinton: 46/46 (June 1994)

Bush II: 73/20 (June 2002)


Rasmussen is more accurate because it collects a proportional amount of voters.

You cant compare Rasmussen data to old data beacsue Rasmussen didnt exist before 2000.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5230 on: July 04, 2010, 07:11:57 AM »

Obama Gallup Approval rating June 2010:

46% Approve

46% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 43/42 (June 1978)

Reagan: 45/46 (June 1982)

Bush I: 68/18 (June 1990)

Clinton: 46/46 (June 1994)

Bush II: 73/20 (June 2002)


In Clinton's case, he was off his lows (37%) and growing.  The Gallup numbers I've seen had him at 46-48% in October or November 1994.  Carter was in his low trough for the first two years, and would also rebound by the midterms.

Only Reagan was showing declining numbers.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/presidential-approval-tracker.htm
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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #5231 on: July 04, 2010, 09:07:36 AM »

Reagan, Clinton, and Obama took big risks with the Presidency. Bush I had accomplished about everything that he wanted to accomplish as President within a year. I'm not sure that he really wanted the Soviet Union to collapse.

Dubya may have won Ohio "with a little help from his friends" in 2004, so we can't be completely sure that he won honestly.

Haha...OK thanks. Roll Eyes
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #5232 on: July 04, 2010, 11:41:27 AM »

Obama Gallup Approval rating June 2010:

46% Approve

46% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 43/42 (June 1978)

Reagan: 45/46 (June 1982)

Bush I: 68/18 (June 1990)

Clinton: 46/46 (June 1994)

Bush II: 73/20 (June 2002)


Interesting that Bush is the only reelected one with positive approval at this point and that the other two with positive approval didn't get reelected.

Reagan, Clinton, and Obama took big risks with the Presidency. Bush I had accomplished about everything that he wanted to accomplish as President within a year. I'm not sure that he really wanted the Soviet Union to collapse.

Dubya may have won Ohio "with a little help from his friends" in 2004, so we can't be completely sure that he won honestly.

Seriously...why is it so hard to accept that George W. Bush was elected then re-elected as President of the United States in the 2000s?
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change08
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« Reply #5233 on: July 04, 2010, 11:44:06 AM »

Obama Gallup Approval rating June 2010:

46% Approve

46% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 43/42 (June 1978)

Reagan: 45/46 (June 1982)

Bush I: 68/18 (June 1990)

Clinton: 46/46 (June 1994)

Bush II: 73/20 (June 2002)


Interesting that Bush is the only reelected one with positive approval at this point and that the other two with positive approval didn't get reelected.

Reagan, Clinton, and Obama took big risks with the Presidency. Bush I had accomplished about everything that he wanted to accomplish as President within a year. I'm not sure that he really wanted the Soviet Union to collapse.

Dubya may have won Ohio "with a little help from his friends" in 2004, so we can't be completely sure that he won honestly.

Seriously...why is it so hard to accept that George W. Bush was elected then re-elected as President of the United States in the 2000s?

Well I know I wouldn't like to think my nation was that idiotic.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5234 on: July 04, 2010, 01:56:05 PM »

Obama Gallup Approval rating June 2010:

46% Approve

46% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 43/42 (June 1978)

Reagan: 45/46 (June 1982)

Bush I: 68/18 (June 1990)

Clinton: 46/46 (June 1994)

Bush II: 73/20 (June 2002)


Interesting that Bush is the only reelected one with positive approval at this point and that the other two with positive approval didn't get reelected.

Reagan, Clinton, and Obama took big risks with the Presidency. Bush I had accomplished about everything that he wanted to accomplish as President within a year. I'm not sure that he really wanted the Soviet Union to collapse.

Dubya may have won Ohio "with a little help from his friends" in 2004, so we can't be completely sure that he won honestly.

Seriously...why is it so hard to accept that George W. Bush was elected then re-elected as President of the United States in the 2000s?

Dubya was elected -- maybe not honestly. As the 2000 and perhaps the 2004 Presidential elections prove, the States elect the President and the American people don't. Nothing guarantees the fairness of the States' processes of deciding who is elected. Conceivably the Governor could conduct a coin toss if something went fishy.

In 2004 people living in precincts likely to vote for Kerry often found huge delays in the vote due to machine shortages and GOP-sponsored challenges to the vote; those in precincts likely to vote for Dubya typically could vote quickly and efficiently. 

The Ohio election for President in 2004 was official -- but also fishy.
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Smid
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« Reply #5235 on: July 05, 2010, 01:55:13 AM »

Obama Gallup Approval rating June 2010:

46% Approve

46% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 43/42 (June 1978)

Reagan: 45/46 (June 1982)

Bush I: 68/18 (June 1990)

Clinton: 46/46 (June 1994)

Bush II: 73/20 (June 2002)


Interesting that Bush is the only reelected one with positive approval at this point and that the other two with positive approval didn't get reelected.

Reagan, Clinton, and Obama took big risks with the Presidency. Bush I had accomplished about everything that he wanted to accomplish as President within a year. I'm not sure that he really wanted the Soviet Union to collapse.

Dubya may have won Ohio "with a little help from his friends" in 2004, so we can't be completely sure that he won honestly.

Seriously...why is it so hard to accept that George W. Bush was elected then re-elected as President of the United States in the 2000s?

Dubya was elected -- maybe not honestly. As the 2000 and perhaps the 2004 Presidential elections prove, the States elect the President and the American people don't. Nothing guarantees the fairness of the States' processes of deciding who is elected. Conceivably the Governor could conduct a coin toss if something went fishy.

In 2004 people living in precincts likely to vote for Kerry often found huge delays in the vote due to machine shortages and GOP-sponsored challenges to the vote; those in precincts likely to vote for Dubya typically could vote quickly and efficiently. 

The Ohio election for President in 2004 was official -- but also fishy.

And in 2000, voters in western Florida were told by the media that their polling stations had closed, when in fact they were still open because of the difference in time zones. This led to fewer voters showing up to vote in the final hour than is normally the case. As that area is typically very strongly conservative/Republican, Gore benefited from this and the lower turnout could have changed the election result. If I were to use your logic, this must therefore be a gigantic conspiracy by the media, proving a left-wing bias.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #5236 on: July 05, 2010, 02:46:25 AM »

Obama Gallup Approval rating June 2010:

46% Approve

46% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 43/42 (June 1978)

Reagan: 45/46 (June 1982)

Bush I: 68/18 (June 1990)

Clinton: 46/46 (June 1994)

Bush II: 73/20 (June 2002)


Interesting that Bush is the only reelected one with positive approval at this point and that the other two with positive approval didn't get reelected.

Reagan, Clinton, and Obama took big risks with the Presidency. Bush I had accomplished about everything that he wanted to accomplish as President within a year. I'm not sure that he really wanted the Soviet Union to collapse.

Dubya may have won Ohio "with a little help from his friends" in 2004, so we can't be completely sure that he won honestly.

Seriously...why is it so hard to accept that George W. Bush was elected then re-elected as President of the United States in the 2000s?

Dubya was elected -- maybe not honestly. As the 2000 and perhaps the 2004 Presidential elections prove, the States elect the President and the American people don't. Nothing guarantees the fairness of the States' processes of deciding who is elected. Conceivably the Governor could conduct a coin toss if something went fishy.

In 2004 people living in precincts likely to vote for Kerry often found huge delays in the vote due to machine shortages and GOP-sponsored challenges to the vote; those in precincts likely to vote for Dubya typically could vote quickly and efficiently. 

The Ohio election for President in 2004 was official -- but also fishy.

But you have to remember, Cuyahoga County is ALWAYS a mess. Every year there are scandals within the local government (all completely Democratic BTW) and the areas where there were delays and problems were in run-down areas which Kerry won anyways by large margins.

Bush could get 80% of the vote in "Bill Fishing Bait Shop" because the folks drive to the ballot box, vote, and go home. It's easier in more rural areas. Hell, it took me 3 minutes to vote in 2008 in Streetsboro, OH inside a little school. No lines, nothing.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #5237 on: July 05, 2010, 02:50:16 PM »

What amuses me about all of the Ohio was stolen people is that Bush still would have had a 3 million popular vote plurality even had he lost Ohio. So if we are talking about approval ratings and presidential vote, the original point still stands.
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Franzl
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« Reply #5238 on: July 05, 2010, 02:59:31 PM »

What amuses me about all of the Ohio was stolen people is that Bush still would have had a 3 million popular vote plurality even had he lost Ohio.

Bush's re-election was absolutely fair......but it's interesting that Republicans only care about the popular vote in 2004 and not in 2000.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #5239 on: July 05, 2010, 07:24:30 PM »

Obama Gallup Approval rating June 2010:

46% Approve

46% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 43/42 (June 1978)

Reagan: 45/46 (June 1982)

Bush I: 68/18 (June 1990)

Clinton: 46/46 (June 1994)

Bush II: 73/20 (June 2002)


In Clinton's case, he was off his lows (37%) and growing.  The Gallup numbers I've seen had him at 46-48% in October or November 1994.  Carter was in his low trough for the first two years, and would also rebound by the midterms.

Only Reagan was showing declining numbers.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/presidential-approval-tracker.htm

Carter kept declining until he hit 39% in August and stayed around 40% until the Camp David Accords in mid-September, which allowed him to rise back to 49% by election day.  

Clinton also hit 39% in August and didnt recover until he reached 48% in late October, falling to 46% on election eve.  Had Clinton maintained that 48% until election day, Democrats probably would have kept the House.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #5240 on: July 06, 2010, 09:04:26 AM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, nc.

Disapprove 54% , –1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, –1.


*Polling was not done over the holiday weekend.


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J. J.
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« Reply #5241 on: July 06, 2010, 10:07:30 AM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, nc.

Disapprove 54% , –1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, –1.


*Polling was not done over the holiday weekend.




And within the "new normal."  No great increase or decrease
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #5242 on: July 06, 2010, 10:46:50 AM »

And within the "new normal."  No great increase or decrease

I didn't want to step on your toes, but when 10AM EDT rolls around without my daily polling fix, I start to get antsy!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5243 on: July 06, 2010, 03:52:30 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2010, 11:27:23 PM by pbrower2a »

Kansas update (yawn!)

Kansas State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 30, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

19% Strongly approve
16% Somewhat approve
11% Somewhat disapprove
53% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure

Oklahoma update  (yawn again!)

Oklahoma State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 30, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

19% Strongly approve
16% Somewhat approve
11% Somewhat disapprove
54% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

46 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 156
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  63
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  92
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 56
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......



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change08
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« Reply #5244 on: July 06, 2010, 04:20:02 PM »

Kentucky:
37/58

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_KY_706.pdf
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5245 on: July 06, 2010, 10:57:01 PM »
« Edited: July 07, 2010, 09:26:47 AM by SE Gov. JBrase »

KA, OK, & KY


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5246 on: July 06, 2010, 11:30:47 PM »

First July poll (Kentucky, letter G)



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

46 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 156
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  63
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  84
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 64
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......




[/quote]
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J. J.
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« Reply #5247 on: July 07, 2010, 09:03:55 AM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, u.

Disapprove 54% u.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.

Now that is stable.  Smiley



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5248 on: July 07, 2010, 04:40:14 PM »
« Edited: July 07, 2010, 06:21:52 PM by pbrower2a »

North Carolina Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted July 6, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

30% Strongly approve
11% Somewhat approve
10% Somewhat disapprove
49% Strongly disapprove
  0% Not sure



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

46 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 156
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  48
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  99
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 64
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......



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Rowan
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« Reply #5249 on: July 07, 2010, 04:45:46 PM »

You need to add 10% because it is Republican HACK Rasmussen.
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