The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1086204 times)
Derek
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« Reply #5300 on: July 14, 2010, 10:13:41 AM »

We got him right where we want him.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5301 on: July 14, 2010, 11:26:35 AM »

NH (Rasmussen):

42% Approve, 43% Disapprove

WTF ?, I´ve never seen a Rasmussen poll with 15% undecided (I think it´s 52% approve)

Link
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5302 on: July 14, 2010, 11:30:57 AM »

NH, CA, & PA


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5303 on: July 14, 2010, 11:39:38 AM »

NH (Rasmussen):

42% Approve, 43% Disapprove

WTF ?, I´ve never seen a Rasmussen poll with 15% undecided (I think it´s 52% approve)

Link

OK, it´s actually 42-57.

Here´s the link (that`s working now):

Link
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5304 on: July 14, 2010, 11:50:26 AM »

Well, I think if you have a problem with Independents nationally, then you´ll probably have a HUGE problem in New Hampshire, of all places too.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5305 on: July 14, 2010, 11:51:46 AM »

New Missouri numbers will be released in 9 minutes ...
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5306 on: July 14, 2010, 12:21:16 PM »

CA, PA updates



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

47 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 156
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  48
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  96
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 66
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

NH?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5307 on: July 14, 2010, 12:28:14 PM »

We may yet be headed for the Christian and Corporate State that Dubya took us toward but only in baby steps.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5308 on: July 14, 2010, 12:29:00 PM »

MO (Rasmussen):

45% Approve
55% Disapprove

Link
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5309 on: July 14, 2010, 12:31:14 PM »

MO


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #5310 on: July 14, 2010, 01:21:32 PM »

We may yet be headed for the Christian and Corporate State that Dubya took us toward but only in baby steps.

We're not there now?
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #5311 on: July 14, 2010, 01:31:10 PM »

Yay, New Hampshire! Cheesy


We may yet be headed for the Christian and Corporate State that Dubya took us toward but only in baby steps.

There's nothing 'Christian' about the corporate oligarchy Bush and Obama faithfully serve.
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change08
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« Reply #5312 on: July 14, 2010, 01:44:29 PM »

MO (Rasmussen):

45% Approve
55% Disapprove

Link

Better than NH? Lol Rass.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5313 on: July 14, 2010, 02:13:20 PM »
« Edited: July 14, 2010, 02:17:35 PM by pbrower2a »



NH hard to believe... but how can I refute it?

 
MO better than CO as well? Something is fishy.





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

47 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 152
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  52
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  96
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 66
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5314 on: July 15, 2010, 12:41:36 AM »

Maryland (PPP): 56-39

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MD_714.pdf
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5315 on: July 15, 2010, 03:08:51 AM »


I guess he can still help O'Malley... if he chooses to.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5316 on: July 15, 2010, 08:39:11 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -2.

Disapprove 54% +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

Still within range.


There seems to have been an overly pro-Obama sample earlier in the week.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5317 on: July 15, 2010, 12:24:38 PM »

WI (Rasmussen): 49-50

Link
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5318 on: July 15, 2010, 02:15:10 PM »

FOX News:

43% Approve
48% Disapprove

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/07/15/fox-news-poll-obama-job-approval-think-stimulus-helped/
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Vepres
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« Reply #5319 on: July 15, 2010, 02:20:36 PM »

Why does Wisconsin seem to like Obama more than its neighbors, both in the primary and general elections, and now in the approval polls?
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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #5320 on: July 15, 2010, 03:27:02 PM »

Why does Wisconsin seem to like Obama more than its neighbors, both in the primary and general elections, and now in the approval polls?

Uh...the only state bordering Wisconsin where Obama is doing worse is Michigan.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5321 on: July 15, 2010, 07:05:56 PM »

TX, MD, WI & DE

Rasmussen : DE: 49 / 48
Link


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5322 on: July 15, 2010, 08:56:04 PM »



Texas Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted July 13, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

   

25% Strongly approve

12% Somewhat approve

  7% Somewhat disapprove

56% Strongly disapprove

  0% Not sure

Wisconsin State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted July 13, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

28% Strongly approve
21% Somewhat approve
  8% Somewhat disapprove
42% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure

Delaware update.





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

47 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 152
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  52
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  59
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 103
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5323 on: July 15, 2010, 08:58:06 PM »

Does anyone want to predict what happens to polls after Wall Street Reform and the first stop of the gusher in the Gulf?

We shall see.
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Sbane
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« Reply #5324 on: July 15, 2010, 09:04:48 PM »

Does anyone want to predict what happens to polls after Wall Street Reform and the first stop of the gusher in the Gulf?


Not much?
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