Rothenberg Senate Rankings

[Nym90]

Here are our latest Senate ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (0 R, 1 D)

    * DE Open (Kaufman, D) #

Toss-Up (4 R, 2 D)

    * KY Open (Bunning, R)
    * MO Open (Bond, R)
    * NH Open (Gregg, R)
    * OH Open (Voinovich, R)
    * IL Open (Burris, D)
    * Dodd (D-CT)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 2 D)

    * Burr (R-NC)
    * Vitter (R-LA)
    * Reid (D-NV)
    * Specter (D-PA)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R, 2 D)

    * FL Open (LeMieux, R)
    * Bennet (D-CO)
    * Lincoln (D-AR)

Currently Safe (11 R, 11 D)

    * Bennett (R-UT)
    * Coburn (R-OK)
    * Crapo (R-ID)
    * DeMint (R-SC)
    * Grassley (R-IA)
    * Isakson (R-GA)
    * McCain (R-AZ)
    * Murkowski (R-AK)
    * Shelby (R-AL)
    * Thune (R-SD)
    * KS Open (Brownback, R)
    * Bayh (D-IN)
    * Boxer (D-CA)
    * Dorgan (D-ND)
    * Feingold (D-WI)
    * Gillibrand (D-NY)
    * Inouye (D-HI)
    * Leahy (D-VT)
    * Mikulski (D-MD)
    * Murray (D-WA)
    * Schumer (D-NY)
    * Wyden (D-OR)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Agreed.  Castle is not outweighing Biden in ANY case.

Except in every poll done on the race yet.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All of the leads have been growing smaller and smaller each poll taken, the two are going to very well matched against each other.  The last poll taken was a lead of five, not outside Beau's range.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Castle's entrance surely alters the race fundamentally but putting it Lean Takeover is a bit drastic IMHO.

Castle, like Beau, has a lot to prove.
Does he have the fire in the belly?
Can he keep the fundraising pace with the Biden/White House machine?
Can he overcome the Democratic tilt of the state in a race where he is not the incumbent?

He is a very strong candidate but he isn't a Mark Warner. And he certainly won't have running against him a Jim Gilmore.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once Biden announces, I'm sure the bloom will be off the rose and we will have a dead even race here.

[Nym90]

I think the reason for the "lean takeover" rating is that there is no guarantee that Beau will run. If he does enter, it'll probably be changed to pure toss up at that point.

[Lunar]

Can he keep the fundraising pace with the Biden/White House machine?

It's Delaware.  The standard NRSC McConnell-Cornyn money machine will be more than enough.  I fully expect McCain to throw 500k Castle's way as well.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Can he keep the fundraising pace with the Biden/White House machine?

It's Delaware.  The standard NRSC McConnell-Cornyn money machine will be more than enough.  I fully expect McCain to throw 500k Castle's way as well.

It's my understanding that the Philadelphia market ain't cheap.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I don't think Delaware pols advertise on the Philly broadcast stations, they stick to cable.

[Lunar]

Well, Biden did as part of his "re-election" campaign, but that was just some shady campaign financing

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, no kidding. I can see why the Democratic-leaning electorate of Delaware would vote for a 70 year old Republican with a history of health problems

They keep doing it every two years already, so it would hardly be a massive leap. Regardless, age and health issues are usually more of a barrier to someone actually running for election than a reason people don't vote for someone - unless they're obviously senile or something.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I suspect the fix is in -- Beau will hold off until 2014 and Castle will get four years in the Senate as a capstone to his five-decade political career.

[Lunar]

I suspect the fix is in -- Beau will hold off until 2014 and Castle will get four years in the Senate as a capstone to his five-decade political career.

One thing to consider - it wouldn't be the worst thing ever for Beau's career to run a high-profile race and narrowly lose.

[Nym90]

Yeah, could be Joe makes an agreement with Castle to keep Beau out of the race in return for Castle's agreeing to not support GOP filibusters once he's in office (keeping in mind that this would be his last election ever, thus once he gets in he's free to vote his conscience).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Yeah, could be Joe makes an agreement with Castle to keep Beau out of the race in return for Castle's agreeing to not support GOP filibusters once he's in office (keeping in mind that this would likely be his last election ever...

I don't think there's any need to get Castle to agree to anything.  He's a pretty independent guy, not the type to reflexively support a filibuster he doesn't believe in.

[Rococo4]

I suspect the fix is in -- Beau will hold off until 2014 and Castle will get four years in the Senate as a capstone to his five-decade political career.

I think so.  Biden doesn't risk losing.  they both get to be U.S. Senators.  They both win in the end.

[Lunar]

What does he risk?  I've asked this three times.

You have to go back to 1960 to find a president who's never lost before.  Losing a single race does not cripple one politically unless you were the incumbent, and even then, probably not.  If Baby Beau Biden runs a high-profile race, don't you think he's going to meet a lot of the people he'll need to know if he runs for the Senate again [if he loses] or higher office?  Moreso, if Beau passes on this completely, he'll upset a lot of the national Democratic movers and moneymen by handing the GOP a senate seat on a silver platter.  Don't you think every politically-connected Democrat in DC is pushing for Beau to run?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It's not about risk. It's about having to fight tooth and nail for the next year to win the Senate seat when he could cruise to re-election as AG and slide into the Senate in 2014. There's no real advantage from Beau's perspective to choose the first option. Unless he wants to run for President one day, it doesn't really matter what national Democrats think. Delaware is a small state, and highly insular -- the last name is enough to get him elected to office. And it's not like it would require raising $10 million to win against a non-Castle Republican.

[Lunar]

He could fight tooth and nail today and cruise in even easier in four years.

Although word on the street is that Biden could be getting cold feet.  Well, word on MSNBC's first read

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

He could fight tooth and nail today and cruise in even easier in four years.

It's a lousy return on the investment of all that work, though.  Running for Senate is unbelievably hard.

Besides, there is a non-zero risk that Biden2 could put in all that work, turn in a sub-par number due to a GOP-friendly year, and then have to fight off Carney in 2014 for the nod.

[Badger]

What does he risk?  I've asked this three times.

Probable re-election as Deleware A-G. Even as the VP's son it'll be easier to run as sitting A-G vs. former A-G.

[HappyWarrior]

2010 will win for republicans i think because obamas approval rating falling recently and the economy will be a topissue and democrats cant handle the economy well as we have seen so far in obamas term at least thats what i think

Actually from what I hear in the past week or so the Obama approvals and the economy have both ben improving.

[Dan the Roman]

Like cancer, it spreads.

[Nym90]

Lean Takeover (0 R, 1 D)

    * DE Open (Kaufman, D)

Toss-Up (4 R, 3 D)

    * KY Open (Bunning, R)
    * MO Open (Bond, R)
    * NH Open (Gregg, R)
    * OH Open (Voinovich, R)
    * IL Open (Burris, D)
    * Dodd (D-CT)
    * Reid (D-NV) *

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 3 D)

    * Burr (R-NC)
    * Vitter (R-LA)
    * Bennet (D-CO)
    * Lincoln (D-AR) *
    * Specter (D-PA) *

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R, 0 D)

    * FL Open (LeMieux, R)

Currently Safe (11 R, 11 D)

    * Bennett (R-UT)
    * Coburn (R-OK)
    * Crapo (R-ID)
    * DeMint (R-SC)
    * Grassley (R-IA)
    * Isakson (R-GA)
    * McCain (R-AZ)
    * Murkowski (R-AK)
    * Shelby (R-AL)
    * Thune (R-SD)
    * KS Open (Brownback, R)
    * Bayh (D-IN)
    * Boxer (D-CA)
    * Dorgan (D-ND)
    * Feingold (D-WI)
    * Gillibrand (D-NY)
    * Inouye (D-HI)
    * Leahy (D-VT)
    * Mikulski (D-MD)
    * Murray (D-WA)
    * Schumer (D-NY)
    * Wyden (D-OR)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Colorado as a lean Dem hold?  Not with these numbers.