Rothenberg Senate Rankings

[Nym90]

Here are our latest Senate ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (0 R, 4 D)

    * Lincoln (D-AR)
    * Reid (D-NV)
    * ND Open (Dorgan, D)
    * DE Open (Kaufman, D)

Toss-Up (3 R, 4 D)

    * KY Open (Bunning, R)
    * MO Open (Bond, R)
    * OH Open (Voinovich, R)
    * IL Open (Burris, D)
    * IN Open (Bayh, D)
    * Bennet (D-CO)
    * Specter (D-PA)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 0 D)

    * Burr (R-NC)
    * FL Open (LeMieux, R) #
    * NH Open (Gregg, R)*

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R,2 D)

    * Vitter (R-LA)
    * Boxer (D-CA)
    * CT Open (Dodd, D)

Currently Safe (11 R, 8 D)

    * Bennett (R-UT)
    * Coburn (R-OK)
    * Crapo (R-ID)
    * DeMint (R-SC)
    * Grassley (R-IA)
    * Isakson (R-GA)
    * McCain (R-AZ)
    * Murkowski (R-AK)
    * Shelby (R-AL)
    * Thune (R-SD)
    * KS Open (Brownback, R)
    * Feingold (D-WI)
    * Gillibrand (D-NY)
    * Inouye (D-HI)
    * Leahy (D-VT)
    * Mikulski (D-MD)
    * Murray (D-WA)
    * Schumer (D-NY)
    * Wyden (D-OR)

[cinyc]

Murray safe and Blumenthal only clear advantage?  That seems backwards.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tossups Specter or Sestak, IL, CO, NH
Lean GOP NV,IN,DEL,FL ARK, and MO

[Mjh]

Tossups Specter or Sestak, IL, CO, NH
Lean GOP NV,IN,DEL,FL ARK, and MO

I am sort of having a problem with this. You place Missouri as lean GOP, but NH as a toss up? The RCP average has Ayotte +12,3% over Hodes. Meanwhile Blunts RCP average over Carnahan is only 2,3%, barely within the margin of error. So shouldn't NH be "Lean GOP" and Missouri "Toss up"

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The last three polls show Blunt leading by six points and outside for GOP pollster Rassy has Ayotte lead seven points. I wouldn't solely rely on NH Rassy polls either.  So, as of now, both are rated GOP leaning.

[Mjh]

So, as of now, both are rated GOP leaning.

I agree.

[Nym90]

Here are our latest Senate ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (0 R, 4 D)

    * Lincoln (D-AR)
    * Reid (D-NV)
    * ND Open (Dorgan, D)
    * DE Open (Kaufman, D)

Toss-Up (3 R, 4 D)

    * KY Open (Bunning, R)
    * MO Open (Bond, R)
    * OH Open (Voinovich, R)
    * IL Open (Burris, D)
    * IN Open (Bayh, D)
    * PA Open (Specter, D)
    * Bennet (D-CO)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 0 D)

    * Burr (R-NC)
    * FL Open (LeMieux, R)
    * NH Open (Gregg, R)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R,2 D)

    * Vitter (R-LA)
    * Boxer (D-CA)
    * CT Open (Dodd, D)

Currently Safe (11 R, 8 D)

    * Coburn (R-OK)
    * Crapo (R-ID)
    * DeMint (R-SC)
    * Grassley (R-IA)
    * Isakson (R-GA)
    * McCain (R-AZ)
    * Murkowski (R-AK)
    * Shelby (R-AL)
    * Thune (R-SD)
    * KS Open (Brownback, R)
    * UT Open (Bennett, R)
    * Feingold (D-WI)
    * Gillibrand (D-NY)
    * Inouye (D-HI)
    * Leahy (D-VT)
    * Mikulski (D-MD)
    * Murray (D-WA)
    * Schumer (D-NY)
    * Wyden (D-OR)

[Nym90]

Here are our latest Senate ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (0 R, 4 D)

    * Lincoln (D-AR)
    * Reid (D-NV)
    * ND Open (Dorgan, D)
    * DE Open (Kaufman, D)

Toss-Up (3 R, 4 D)

    * KY Open (Bunning, R)
    * MO Open (Bond, R)
    * OH Open (Voinovich, R)
    * IL Open (Burris, D)
    * IN Open (Bayh, D)
    * PA Open (Specter, D)
    * Bennet (D-CO)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 1 D)

    * Burr (R-NC)
    * FL Open (LeMieux, R)
    * NH Open (Gregg, R)
    * Murray (D-WA) *

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R,2 D)

    * Vitter (R-LA)
    * Boxer (D-CA)
    * CT Open (Dodd, D)

Currently Safe (11 R, 7 D)

    * Coburn (R-OK)
    * Crapo (R-ID)
    * DeMint (R-SC)
    * Grassley (R-IA)
    * Isakson (R-GA)
    * McCain (R-AZ)
    * Murkowski (R-AK)
    * Shelby (R-AL)
    * Thune (R-SD)
    * KS Open (Brownback, R)
    * UT Open (Bennett, R)
    * Feingold (D-WI)
    * Gillibrand (D-NY)
    * Inouye (D-HI)
    * Leahy (D-VT)
    * Mikulski (D-MD)
    * Schumer (D-NY)
    * Wyden (D-OR)

[Nym90]

Here are our latest Senate ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans
Takeovers in Italics

Pure Toss-Up (1 R, 2 )
Bennet (D-CO)
OH Open (Voinovich, R)
PA Open (Specter, D)

Toss-Up/Tilt Republican (3 R, 3 D)
Reid (D-NV)
FL Open (Martinez, R)
IL Open (Burris, D)
IN Open (Bayh, D)
KY Open (Bunning, R)
MO Open (Bond, R)

Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat
--- none ---

Lean Republican (2 R, 2 D)
Burr (R-NC)
Lincoln (D-AR)
DE Open (Kaufman, D)
NH Open (Gregg, R)

Lean Democrat (0 R, 2 D)
Boxer (D-CA)
Murray (D-WA)

Republican Favored (1 R, 0 D)
Vitter (R-LA)

Democrat Favored (0 R, 2 D)
Feingold (D-WI)
CT Open (Dodd, D)

Safe Republican (11 R, 1 D)
Coburn (R-OK)
Crapo (R-ID)
DeMint (R-SC)
Grassley (R-IA)
Isakson (R-GA)
McCain (R-AZ)
Murkowski (R-AK)
Shelby (R-AL)
Thune (R-SD)
KS Open (Brownback, R)
ND Open (Dorgan, D)
UT Open (Bennett, R)

Safe Democrat (0 R, 6 D)
Gillibrand (D-NY)
Inouye (D-HI)
Leahy (D-VT)
Mikulski (D-MD)
Schumer (D-NY)
Wyden (D-OR)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

tossup CO,IL,FL,PA,OH
Tilt republican NH,MO,NV,IND,Del,ARK,ND
Safe CA,WA,CT but potentially to be competetive

[cinyc]

tossup CO,IL,FL,PA,OH
Tilt republican NH,MO,NV,IND,Del,ARK,ND
Safe CA,WA,CT but potentially to be competetive

The only way CT becomes competitive is if Blumenthal really, really implodes.  Even Blumenthal's misstatement of his military service isn't enough of an implosion to make it a potential Republican pickup.  He either needs Coakley-like campaign ineptness or a Spitzer-like scandal to become vulnerable - and probably both.   There's a less than 5% chance of that happening.   I think CA, WA and WI would fall before CT does.

[Nym90]

Pure Toss-Up (1 R, 2 )
Bennet (D-CO)
OH Open (Voinovich, R)
PA Open (Specter, D)

Toss-Up/Tilt Republican (3 R, 3 D)
Reid (D-NV)
FL Open (Martinez, R)
IL Open (Burris, D)
IN Open (Bayh, D)
KY Open (Bunning, R)
MO Open (Bond, R)

Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat
--- none ---

Lean Republican (1 R, 2 D)
Lincoln (D-AR)
DE Open (Kaufman, D)
NH Open (Gregg, R)

Lean Democrat (0 R, 2 D)
Boxer (D-CA)
Murray (D-WA)

Republican Favored (2 R, 0 D)
Burr (R-NC) *
Vitter (R-LA)

Democrat Favored (0 R, 2 D)
Feingold (D-WI)
CT Open (Dodd, D)

Safe Republican (11 R, 1 D)
Coburn (R-OK)
Crapo (R-ID)
DeMint (R-SC)
Grassley (R-IA)
Isakson (R-GA)
McCain (R-AZ)
Murkowski (R-AK)
Shelby (R-AL)
Thune (R-SD)
KS Open (Brownback, R)
ND Open (Dorgan, D)
UT Open (Bennett, R)

Safe Democrat (0 R, 6 D)
Gillibrand (D-NY)
Inouye (D-HI)
Leahy (D-VT)
Mikulski (D-MD)
Schumer (D-NY)
Wyden (D-OR)

[Nym90]

Here are our latest Senate ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans
Takeovers in Italics

Pure Toss-Up (1 R, 2 )
Bennet (D-CO)
OH Open (Voinovich, R)
PA Open (Specter, D)

Toss-Up/Tilt Republican (3 R, 3 D)
Reid (D-NV)
FL Open (Martinez, R)
IL Open (Burris, D)
IN Open (Bayh, D)
KY Open (Bunning, R)
MO Open (Bond, R)

Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat ( 0 R, 3 D)
Boxer (D-CA) *
Feingold (D-WI) *
Murray (D-WA) *

Lean Republican (2 R, 2 D)
Burr (R-NC)
Lincoln (D-AR)
DE Open (Kaufman, D)
NH Open (Gregg, R)

Lean Democrat (0 R, 0 D)
--none--

Republican Favored (1 R, 0 D)
Vitter (R-LA)

Democrat Favored (0 R, 1 D)
CT Open (Dodd, D)

Safe Republican (11 R, 1 D)
Coburn (R-OK)
Crapo (R-ID)
DeMint (R-SC)
Grassley (R-IA)
Isakson (R-GA)
McCain (R-AZ)
Murkowski (R-AK)
Shelby (R-AL)
Thune (R-SD)
KS Open (Brownback, R)
ND Open (Dorgan, D)
UT Open (Bennett, R)

Safe Democrat (0 R, 6 D)
Gillibrand (D-NY)
Inouye (D-HI)
Leahy (D-VT)
Mikulski (D-MD)
Schumer (D-NY)
Wyden (D-OR)

[Nym90]

Rothenberg revamped his site significantly.

http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/spectrum/august-9-2010-senate-ratings/senate

Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 19 Republican: 18

Pure Toss-up
Democrat: 4 Republican: 2 
CO III D  Bennet 
FL III R Open Lemieux ⇦
NV III D  Reid ⇦
OH III R Open Voinovich 
PA III D Open Specter 
WI III D  Feingold ⇨

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0 
CA III D  Boxer 
WA III D  Murray 

Lean Democrat
Democrat: 0 Republican: 0 

Democrat Favored
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0 
CT III D Open Dodd 
WV I D Open Goodwin ⇨

Currently Safe Democrat
Democrat: 6 Republican: 0 
HI III D  Inouye 
MD III D  Mikulski 
NY I D  Gillibrand 
NY III D  Schumer 
OR III D  Wyden 
VT III D  Leahy 

Toss-up/Tilt Republican
Democrat: 2 Republican: 2 
IL III D Open Burris 
IN III D Open Bayh 
KY III R Open Bunning 
MO III R Open Bond 

Lean Republican
Democrat: 2 Republican: 1 
AR III D  Lincoln 
DE II D Open Kaufman 
NH III R Open Gregg 

Republican Favored
Democrat: 0 Republican: 2 
LA III R  Vitter 
NC III R  Burr 

Currently Safe Republican
Democrat: 1 Republican: 11 
AK III R  Murkowski 
AL III R  Shelby 
AZ III R  McCain 
GA III R  Isakson 
IA III R  Grassley 
ID III R  Crapo 
KS III R Open Brownback 
ND III D Open Dorgan 
OK III R  Coburn 
SC III R  DeMint 
SD III R  Thune 
UT III R Open Bennett

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Toss UP/Tilt GOP:
MO, KY, NH, FL
Toss UP/Tilt Dem
IL,WI,CA,WA
Tossup
NV,CO, OH, PA

[Nym90]

Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 19 Republican: 18 

Pure Toss-up
Democrat: 4 Republican: 1 
CO III D  Bennet 
FL III R Open Lemieux 
NV III D  Reid 
PA III D Open Specter 
WI III D  Feingold 

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0 
CA III D  Boxer 
WA III D  Murray 

Lean Democrat
Democrat: 0 Republican: 0 

Democrat Favored
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0 
CT III D Open Dodd 
WV I D Open Goodwin 

Currently Safe Democrat
Democrat: 6 Republican: 0 
HI III D  Inouye 
MD III D  Mikulski 
NY I D  Gillibrand 
NY III D  Schumer 
OR III D  Wyden 
VT III D  Leahy 

Toss-up/Tilt Republican
Democrat: 2 Republican: 3 
IL III D Open Burris 
IN III D Open Bayh 
KY III R Open Bunning 
MO III R Open Bond 
OH III R Open Voinovich →

Lean Republican
Democrat: 2 Republican: 1 
AR III D  Lincoln 
DE II D Open Kaufman 
NH III R Open Gregg 

Republican Favored
Democrat: 0 Republican: 2 
LA III R  Vitter 
NC III R  Burr 

Currently Safe Republican
Democrat: 1 Republican: 11 
AK III R  Murkowski 
AL III R  Shelby 
AZ III R  McCain 
GA III R  Isakson 
IA III R  Grassley 
ID III R  Crapo 
KS III R Open Brownback 
ND III D Open Dorgan 
OK III R  Coburn 
SC III R  DeMint 
SD III R  Thune 
UT III R Open Bennett

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Lean Republican
Democrat: 2 Republican: 1 
AR III D  Lincoln  
DE II D Open Kaufman 
NH III R Open Gregg 

Arkansas is "Lean Republican"?!...obviously a serious understatement, else this guy smokes crack on a daily basis

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Illinois not tilt GOP.

[tmthforu94]

Illinois not tilt GOP.

Agreed. No way should Indiana and Illinois be in the same category.

[JoeyJoeJoe]

From the original rankings:

Currently Safe (9 R, 13 D)

    * Bennett (R-UT)
    * Coburn (R-OK)
    * Crapo (R-ID)
    * DeMint (R-SC)
    * Isakson (R-GA)
    * McCain (R-AZ)
    * Murkowski (R-AK)
    * Shelby (R-AL)
    * Thune (R-SD)
    * Bayh (D-IN)
    * Boxer (D-CA)
    * Burris (D-IL)
    * Dodd (D-CT)
    * Inouye (D-HI)
    * Kaufman (D-DE)
    * Leahy (D-VT)
    * Lincoln (D-AR)   
    * Mikulski (D-MD)
    * Murray (D-WA)
    * Schumer (D-NY)
    * Wyden (D-OR)
    * NY Open (Clinton, D)

Heh.

[Niemeyerite]

From the original rankings:

Currently Safe (9 R, 13 D)

    * Bennett (R-UT)
    * Coburn (R-OK)
    * Crapo (R-ID)
    * DeMint (R-SC)
    * Isakson (R-GA)
    * McCain (R-AZ)
    * Murkowski (R-AK)
    * Shelby (R-AL)
    * Thune (R-SD)
    * Bayh (D-IN)
    * Boxer (D-CA)
    * Burris (D-IL)
    * Dodd (D-CT)
    * Inouye (D-HI)
    * Kaufman (D-DE)
    * Leahy (D-VT)
    * Lincoln (D-AR)   
    * Mikulski (D-MD)
    * Murray (D-WA)
    * Schumer (D-NY)
    * Wyden (D-OR)
    * NY Open (Clinton, D)

Heh.

sure?

[Nym90]

Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 19 Republican: 18

Pure Toss-up
Democrat: 3 Republican: 1
CO    III    D       Bennet    
FL    III    R    Open    Lemieux    
NV    III    D       Reid    
WI    III    D       Feingold    

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
CA    III    D       Boxer    
WA    III    D       Murray    

Lean Democrat
Democrat: 0 Republican: 0

Democrat Favored
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
CT    III    D    Open    Dodd    
WV    I    D    Open    Goodwin    

Currently Safe Democrat
Democrat: 6 Republican: 0
HI    III    D       Inouye    
MD    III    D       Mikulski    
NY    I    D       Gillibrand    
NY    III    D       Schumer    
OR    III    D       Wyden    
VT    III    D       Leahy    

Toss-up/Tilt Republican
Democrat: 2 Republican: 3
IL    III    D    Open    Burris    
KY    III    R    Open    Bunning    
MO    III    R    Open    Bond    
OH    III    R    Open    Voinovich    
PA    III    D    Open    Specter    →

Lean Republican
Democrat: 1 Republican: 1
DE    II    D    Open    Kaufman    
NH    III    R    Open    Gregg    

Republican Favored
Democrat: 2 Republican: 2
AR    III    D       Lincoln    →
IN    III    D    Open    Bayh    →
LA    III    R       Vitter    
NC    III    R       Burr    

Currently Safe Republican
Democrat: 1 Republican: 11
AK    III    R    Open    Murkowski    
AL    III    R       Shelby    
AZ    III    R       McCain    
GA    III    R       Isakson    
IA    III    R       Grassley    
ID    III    R       Crapo    
KS    III    R    Open    Brownback    
ND    III    D    Open    Dorgan    
OK    III    R       Coburn    
SC    III    R       DeMint    
SD    III    R       Thune    
UT    III    R    Open    Bennett

[Torie]

Stu is such a fraidy cat. He needs to put me on his staff or something. But hey, Alaska is still safe! 

[Nym90]

Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 19 Republican: 18

Pure Toss-up
Democrat: 3 Republican: 1
CO    III    D       Bennet    
FL    III    R    Open    Lemieux    
NV    III    D       Reid    
WI    III    D       Feingold    

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
CA    III    D       Boxer    
WA    III    D       Murray
   
Lean Democrat
Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
DE    II    D    Open    Kaufman    ←

Democrat Favored
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
CT    III    D    Open    Dodd    
WV    I    D    Open    Goodwin
   
Currently Safe Democrat
Democrat: 6 Republican: 0
HI    III    D       Inouye    
MD    III    D       Mikulski    
NY    I    D       Gillibrand    
NY    III    D       Schumer    
OR    III    D       Wyden    
VT    III    D       Leahy    

Toss-up/Tilt Republican
Democrat: 2 Republican: 3
IL    III    D    Open    Burris    
KY    III    R    Open    Bunning    
MO    III    R    Open    Bond    
OH    III    R    Open    Voinovich    
PA    III    D    Open    Specter    

Lean Republican
Democrat: 0 Republican: 1
NH    III    R    Open    Gregg    

Republican Favored
Democrat: 2 Republican: 2
AR    III    D       Lincoln    
IN    III    D    Open    Bayh    
LA    III    R       Vitter    
NC    III    R       Burr    

Currently Safe Republican
Democrat: 1 Republican: 11
AK    III    R    Open    Murkowski    
AL    III    R       Shelby    
AZ    III    R       McCain    
GA    III    R       Isakson    
IA    III    R       Grassley    
ID    III    R       Crapo    
KS    III    R    Open    Brownback    
ND    III    D    Open    Dorgan    
OK    III    R       Coburn    
SC    III    R       DeMint    
SD    III    R       Thune    
UT    III    R    Open    Bennett    

[Nym90]

Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 19 Republican: 18

Pure Toss-up
Democrat: 3 Republican: 1
CO    III    D       Bennet    
FL    III    R    Open    Lemieux    
NV    III    D       Reid    
WI    III    D       Feingold    

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
CA    III    D       Boxer    
WA    III    D       Murray
   
Lean Democrat
Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
DE    II    D    Open    Kaufman    ←

Democrat Favored
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
CT    III    D    Open    Dodd    
WV    I    D    Open    Goodwin
   
Currently Safe Democrat
Democrat: 6 Republican: 0
HI    III    D       Inouye    
MD    III    D       Mikulski    
NY    I    D       Gillibrand    
NY    III    D       Schumer    
OR    III    D       Wyden    
VT    III    D       Leahy    

Toss-up/Tilt Republican
Democrat: 2 Republican: 3
IL    III    D    Open    Burris    
KY    III    R    Open    Bunning    
MO    III    R    Open    Bond    
OH    III    R    Open    Voinovich    
PA    III    D    Open    Specter    

Lean Republican
Democrat: 0 Republican: 1
NH    III    R    Open    Gregg    

Republican Favored
Democrat: 2 Republican: 2
AR    III    D       Lincoln    
IN    III    D    Open    Bayh    
LA    III    R       Vitter    
NC    III    R       Burr    

Currently Safe Republican
Democrat: 1 Republican: 11
AK    III    R    Open    Murkowski    
AL    III    R       Shelby    
AZ    III    R       McCain    
GA    III    R       Isakson    
IA    III    R       Grassley    
ID    III    R       Crapo    
KS    III    R    Open    Brownback    
ND    III    D    Open    Dorgan    
OK    III    R       Coburn    
SC    III    R       DeMint    
SD    III    R       Thune    
UT    III    R    Open    Bennett