Rothenberg Senate Rankings

[Nym90]

Here are our latest Senate ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (0 R, 3 D)

    * Reid (D-NV)
    * ND Open (Dorgan, D)
    * DE Open (Kaufman, D)

Toss-Up (4 R, 5 D)

    * KY Open (Bunning, R)
    * MO Open (Bond, R)
    * NH Open (Gregg, R)
    * OH Open (Voinovich, R)
    * IL Open (Burris, D)
    * MA Open (Kirk, D) *
    * Bennet (D-CO)
    * Lincoln (D-AR)
    * Specter (D-PA)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 0 D)

    * Burr (R-NC)
    * Vitter (R-LA)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R,1 D)

    * Grassley (R-IA)
    * FL Open (LeMieux, R)
    * CT Open (Dodd, D)

Currently Safe (10 R, 10 D)

    * Bennett (R-UT)
    * Coburn (R-OK)
    * Crapo (R-ID)
    * DeMint (R-SC)
    * Isakson (R-GA)
    * McCain (R-AZ)
    * Murkowski (R-AK)
    * Shelby (R-AL)
    * Thune (R-SD)
    * KS Open (Brownback, R)
    * Bayh (D-IN)
    * Boxer (D-CA)
    * Feingold (D-WI)
    * Gillibrand (D-NY)
    * Inouye (D-HI)
    * Leahy (D-VT)
    * Mikulski (D-MD)
    * Murray (D-WA)
    * Schumer (D-NY)
    * Wyden (D-OR)

[Vepres]

Why is KY a toss-up? Given how it voted a year ago and the currently hostile environment for Democrats, I would personally put it in narrow advantage for incumbent party. Is there a top tier Democrat running or something?

[SvenssonRS]

Why is KY a toss-up? Given how it voted a year ago and the currently hostile environment for Democrats, I would personally put it in narrow advantage for incumbent party. Is there a top tier Democrat running or something?

If Conway wins the primary, then yes, there's a top tier candidate running and there might actually be a question of who will win. However, if Mongiardo manages to pull himself back ahead, then...safe Republican no matter which of that party's two candidates gets the nomination. I'd put it at Likely Republican, myself, but I'm not the one making the predictions here.

[Badger]

Why is KY a toss-up? Given how it voted a year ago and the currently hostile environment for Democrats, I would personally put it in narrow advantage for incumbent party. Is there a top tier Democrat running or something?

If Conway wins the primary, then yes, there's a top tier candidate running and there might actually be a question of who will win. However, if Mongiardo manages to pull himself back ahead, then...safe Republican no matter which of that party's two candidates gets the nomination. I'd put it at Likely Republican, myself, but I'm not the one making the predictions here.

I'd put it as follows:

Conway v. Paul: Toss up

Mongiardo v. Paul: Lean R

Conway v. Greyson: Lean R

Mongiardo v. Grayson: Likely R

Overall considering the odds of the primary results: Lean R

[Nym90]

Here are our latest Senate ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (0 R, 4 D)

    * Reid (D-NV)
    * MA Open (Kirk, D) *
    * ND Open (Dorgan, D)
    * DE Open (Kaufman, D)

Toss-Up (4 R, 4 D)

    * KY Open (Bunning, R)
    * MO Open (Bond, R)
    * NH Open (Gregg, R)
    * OH Open (Voinovich, R)
    * IL Open (Burris, D)
    * Bennet (D-CO)
    * Lincoln (D-AR)
    * Specter (D-PA)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 0 D)

    * Burr (R-NC)
    * Vitter (R-LA)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R,1 D)

    * Grassley (R-IA)
    * FL Open (LeMieux, R)
    * CT Open (Dodd, D)

Currently Safe (10 R, 10 D)

    * Bennett (R-UT)
    * Coburn (R-OK)
    * Crapo (R-ID)
    * DeMint (R-SC)
    * Isakson (R-GA)
    * McCain (R-AZ)
    * Murkowski (R-AK)
    * Shelby (R-AL)
    * Thune (R-SD)
    * KS Open (Brownback, R)
    * Bayh (D-IN)
    * Boxer (D-CA)
    * Feingold (D-WI)
    * Gillibrand (D-NY)
    * Inouye (D-HI)
    * Leahy (D-VT)
    * Mikulski (D-MD)
    * Murray (D-WA)
    * Schumer (D-NY)
    * Wyden (D-OR)

[HAnnA MArin County]

I apologize if this has already been posted elsewhere on here, but if not, here are the CQPolitics.com Senate ratings.

TOSSUPS/NO CLEAR FAVORITES
*Arkansas - Blanche Lincoln (D)
*Colorado - Michael Bennet (D)
*Illinois - OPEN SEAT - Roland Burris (D)
*Kentucky - OPEN SEAT - Jim Bunning (R)
*Missouri - OPEN SEAT - Kit Bond (R)
*Nevada - Harry Reid (D)
*New Hampshire - OPEN SEAT - Judd Gregg (R)
*Ohio - OPEN SEAT - George Voinovich (R)

LEANS DEMOCRATIC
*Pennsylvania - Arlen Specter (D)

LEANS REPUBLICAN
*Delaware - OPEN SEAT - Ted Kaufman (D)
*Louisiana - David Vitter (R)
*North Carolina - Richard Burr (R)

DEMOCRAT FAVORED
*California - Barbara Boxer (D)
*Connecticut - OPEN SEAT - Chris Dodd (D)
*New York - Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

REPUBLICAN FAVORED
*Florida - OPEN SEAT - Mel Martinez/George LeMieux (R)
*North Dakota - OPEN SEAT - Byron Dorgan (D)

SAFE SEATS
*Alabama - Richard Shelby (R)
*Alaska - Lisa Murkowski (R)
*Arizona - John McCain (R)
*Georgia - Johnny Isakson (R)
*Hawaii - Daniel Inouye (D)
*Idaho - Mike Crapo (R)
*Indiana - Evan Bayh (D)
*Iowa - Chuck Grassley (R)
*Kansas - OPEN SEAT - Sam Brownback (R)
*Maryland - Barbara Mikulski (D)
*New York - Chuck Schumer (D)
*Oklahoma - Tom Coburn (R)
*Oregon - Ron Wyden (D)
*South Carolina - Jim DeMint (R)
*South Dakota - John Thune (R)
*Utah - Bob Bennett (R)
*Vermont - Patrick Leahy (D)
*Washington - Patty Murray (D)
*Wisconsin - Russ Feingold (D)

[Psychic Octopus]

I think Delaware is more of tossup then Arkansas and Nevada. And Pennsylvania should be tossup.

[J. J.]

I think Delaware is more of tossup then Arkansas and Nevada. And Pennsylvania should be tossup.

I'm quite surprised at DE as well.

[Lief 🗽]

Delaware is lean Republican until Beau Biden announces he's actually running.

[Torie]

Delaware is lean Republican until Beau Biden announces he's actually running.

Except that Delaware is another relatively rich and high income state (it used to be the richest in the nation), and health care might take Beau down, even if he runs. Granted Delaware probably has fewer swing voters than the heavily white state of Mass, which has relatively few minorities percentage wise.

[Nym90]

Here are our latest Senate ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (0 R, 4 D)

    * Lincoln (D-AR) *
    * Reid (D-NV)
    * ND Open (Dorgan, D)
    * DE Open (Kaufman, D)

Toss-Up (4 R, 3 D)

    * KY Open (Bunning, R)
    * MO Open (Bond, R)
    * NH Open (Gregg, R)
    * OH Open (Voinovich, R)
    * IL Open (Burris, D)
    * Bennet (D-CO)
    * Specter (D-PA)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R, 0 D)

    * Burr (R-NC)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R,1 D)

    * Vitter (R-LA) *
    * FL Open (LeMieux, R)
    * CT Open (Dodd, D)

Currently Safe (11 R, 10 D)

    * Bennett (R-UT)
    * Coburn (R-OK)
    * Crapo (R-ID)
    * DeMint (R-SC)
    * Grassley (R-IA) *
    * Isakson (R-GA)
    * McCain (R-AZ)
    * Murkowski (R-AK)
    * Shelby (R-AL)
    * Thune (R-SD)
    * KS Open (Brownback, R)
    * Bayh (D-IN)
    * Boxer (D-CA)
    * Feingold (D-WI)
    * Gillibrand (D-NY)
    * Inouye (D-HI)
    * Leahy (D-VT)
    * Mikulski (D-MD)
    * Murray (D-WA)
    * Schumer (D-NY)
    * Wyden (D-OR)

[zorkpolitics]

The Republicans will win all the Lean Takeover and Toss-Ups for a net gain of 7 to 48 seats.

As the campaign develops they may also win some of the following:
NY (if Pataki runs), WI (if Thompson runs), IN (if Pence runs), CA,

So the Republicans have a path to taking over the Senate, although its a low probability at this point.

[HappyWarrior]

The previous poster first of all is dead wrong, I say we lose net three by gaining MO and either OH and NH, while losing the lean takeovers(unless Beau runs) as well as PA.  Also why is KY still a toss up?

[SamInTheSouth]

The previous poster first of all is dead wrong, I say we lose net three by gaining MO and either OH and NH, while losing the lean takeovers(unless Beau runs) as well as PA.  Also why is KY still a toss up?

With the way things have been going you guys will be lucky to pick up anything in the Senate you don't already hold.

[live free or die]

How can Bayh, Boxer, Feingold, and Gillibrand be considered "safe"?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Dems in the reddest states that voted for the stimulus have the most to lose right now that's why the redder state Dems like Evan Bayh will have a tough race.

It's time to move IN to lean Democratic.

[J. J.]

The Dems in the reddest states that voted for the stimulus have the most to lose right now that's why the redder state Dems like Evan Bayh will have a tough race.

It's time to move IN to lean Democratic.

Pence just announced he won't run.  Good news for Bayh.  I'd still put it as D lean.

[Nym90]

Here are our latest Senate ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans



Lean Takeover (0 R, 4 D)

Lincoln (D-AR)
Reid (D-NV)
ND Open (Dorgan, D)
DE Open (Kaufman, D)

Toss-Up (4 R, 3 D)

KY Open (Bunning, R)
MO Open (Bond, R)
NH Open (Gregg, R)
OH Open (Voinovich, R)
IL Open (Burris, D)
Bennet (D-CO)
Specter (D-PA)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R, 1 D)

Burr (R-NC)
Bayh (D-IN) *

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R,1 D)

Vitter (R-LA)
FL Open (LeMieux, R)
CT Open (Dodd, D)

Currently Safe (11 R, 10 D)

Bennett (R-UT)
Coburn (R-OK)
Crapo (R-ID)
DeMint (R-SC)
Grassley (R-IA)
Isakson (R-GA)
McCain (R-AZ)
Murkowski (R-AK)
Shelby (R-AL)
Thune (R-SD)
KS Open (Brownback, R)
Boxer (D-CA)
Feingold (D-WI)
Gillibrand (D-NY)
Inouye (D-HI)
Leahy (D-VT)
Mikulski (D-MD)
Murray (D-WA)
Schumer (D-NY)
Wyden (D-OR)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Intrade has the latest election standings as of now

http://electoralmap.net/2010/

[nclib]

Intrade has the latest election standings as of now

http://electoralmap.net/2010/

Neat. I arranged it by party and rank:

State      Incumbent   WinProbability   Pickup
            
ND   (D)   Byron Dorgan(retiring)   10   +R
DE   (D)   Ted Kaufman(retiring)   20   +R
AR   (D)   Blanche Lincoln   23.5   +R
NV   (D)   Harry Reid   31.95   +R
PA   (D)   Arlen Specter   33   +R
CO   (D)   Michael Bennet   34.5   +R
IL   (D)   Roland Burris(retiring)   50   --
CA   (D)   Barbara Boxer   59.5   --
IN   (D)   Evan Bayh   62.5   --
WA   (D)   Patty Murray   64.75   --
WI   (D)   Russ Feingold   65   --
NY   (D)   Kirsten Gillibrand   70   --
CT   (D)   Chris Dodd(retiring)   74.75   --
HI   (D)   Daniel Inouye   80   --
NY   (D)   Chuck Schumer   86.25   --
OR   (D)   Ron Wyden   86.5   --
MD   (D)   Barbara Mikulski   88.12   --
VT   (D)   Patrick Leahy   88.12   --
MO   (R)   Kit Bond(retiring)   60.5   --
NH   (R)   Judd Gregg(retiring)   65   --
OH   (R)   George Voinovich(retiring)   66   --
KY   (R)   Jim Bunning(retiring)   77.5   --
FL   (R)   George LeMieux(retiring)   78.75   --
LA   (R)   David Vitter   80   --
NC   (R)   Richard Burr   80   --
SD   (R)   John Thune   85   --
UT   (R)   Bob Bennett   85   --
OK   (R)   Tom Coburn   87.5   --
IA   (R)   Chuck Grassley   88.5   --
KS   (R)   Sam Brownback   89.95   --
AZ   (R)   John McCain   90   --
ID   (R)   Mike Crapo   90   --
SC   (R)   Jim DeMint   90   --
AL   (R)   Richard Shelby   90.08   --
GA   (R)   Johnny Isakson   90.08   --
AK   (R)   Lisa Murkowski   92.53   --

[Nym90]

Here are our latest Senate ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans



Lean Takeover (0 R, 4 D)

Lincoln (D-AR)
Reid (D-NV)
ND Open (Dorgan, D)
DE Open (Kaufman, D)

Toss-Up (4 R, 4 D)

KY Open (Bunning, R)
MO Open (Bond, R)
NH Open (Gregg, R)
OH Open (Voinovich, R)
IL Open (Burris, D)
IN Open (Bayh, D) *
Bennet (D-CO)
Specter (D-PA)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R, 0 D)

Burr (R-NC)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R,1 D)

Vitter (R-LA)
FL Open (LeMieux, R)
CT Open (Dodd, D)

Currently Safe (11 R, 10 D)

Bennett (R-UT)
Coburn (R-OK)
Crapo (R-ID)
DeMint (R-SC)
Grassley (R-IA)
Isakson (R-GA)
McCain (R-AZ)
Murkowski (R-AK)
Shelby (R-AL)
Thune (R-SD)
KS Open (Brownback, R)
Boxer (D-CA)
Feingold (D-WI)
Gillibrand (D-NY)
Inouye (D-HI)
Leahy (D-VT)
Mikulski (D-MD)
Murray (D-WA)
Schumer (D-NY)
Wyden (D-OR)

[Torie]

Boxer (D-CA), Feingold (D-WI), and Murray (D-WA) are still safe eh, despite polls suggesting potentially tough races at the moment? What is up with that Stu?

By the way, I respect Stu. I don't mean to put him down. I just wonder what his reasoning is.

[Nym90]

Here are our latest Senate ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (0 R, 4 D)

    * Lincoln (D-AR)
    * Reid (D-NV)
    * ND Open (Dorgan, D)
    * DE Open (Kaufman, D)

Toss-Up (4 R, 4 D)

    * KY Open (Bunning, R)
    * MO Open (Bond, R)
    * NH Open (Gregg, R)
    * OH Open (Voinovich, R)
    * IL Open (Burris, D)
    * IN Open (Bayh, D)
    * Bennet (D-CO)
    * Specter (D-PA)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R, 0 D)

    * Burr (R-NC)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R,1 D)

    * Vitter (R-LA)
    * FL Open (LeMieux, R)
    * Boxer (D-CA) *
    * CT Open (Dodd, D)

Currently Safe (11 R, 8 D)

    * Bennett (R-UT)
    * Coburn (R-OK)
    * Crapo (R-ID)
    * DeMint (R-SC)
    * Grassley (R-IA)
    * Isakson (R-GA)
    * McCain (R-AZ)
    * Murkowski (R-AK)
    * Shelby (R-AL)
    * Thune (R-SD)
    * KS Open (Brownback, R)
    * Feingold (D-WI)
    * Gillibrand (D-NY)
    * Inouye (D-HI)
    * Leahy (D-VT)
    * Mikulski (D-MD)
    * Murray (D-WA)
    * Schumer (D-NY)
    * Wyden (D-OR)

[Nym90]

Oh and Torie, to answer your question....

Plus 10 in the Senate? Republicans Certainly Not There Yet

By Stuart Rothenberg

Having seen victories by Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama, the 1994 Republican and 2006 Democratic Congressional sweeps, and Sen. Scott Brown’s (R) recent Massachusetts victory, I’m not inclined to rule out unexpected outcomes — especially nine months before an event.

But the recent explosion of talk of Republicans gaining 10 seats in the Senate is simply premature. Right now, the GOP has an opportunity to net as many as eight Senate seats. That’s a huge number, especially considering that Democrats have 18 seats up this fall, but it is well short of control.

The new political landscape has resulted in an improved environment for the GOP, including the very real possibility that the party can retain all four of its most vulnerable open seats, in Missouri, Ohio, Kentucky and New Hampshire.

For the moment, let’s assume the GOP avoids losing any of its own seats.

Republicans have the advantage in four Democratic-held Senate seats — North Dakota, Delaware, Arkansas and Nevada. In addition, they are no worse than even money in four others — Indiana, Illinois, Colorado and Pennsylvania.

So, any chance of gaining 10 seats would require Republican candidates to win at least two of the following four states: Connecticut, California, Wisconsin and Washington.

Early polling in Connecticut shows state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal ahead of both former Rep. Rob Simmons and businesswoman Linda McMahon, the two Republicans most likely to be the eventual nominee.

Simmons is a quirky ex-legislator who built a moderate record while representing eastern Connecticut in the House. McMahon is a wealthy, self-funding first-time candidate whose claim to fame and wealth, professional wrestling, is widely seen as crude and violent.

Sen. Chris Dodd’s (D) exit from the race hurt Simmons, whose main argument has been substance and electability. He is now an underdog for the GOP nomination. McMahon’s wealth (she has promised to spend tens of millions of dollars), outsider persona, poise and relatively conservative positioning makes her stronger than Simmons in a primary and potentially more of a threat to Blumenthal.

Still, both Republicans start far behind Blumenthal, in the polls and in handicapping. A four-term statewide officeholder, Blumenthal is a smart Democrat in a Democratic state. He’ll raise plenty of cash and begins with a clear advantage in the race.

In California, voters aren’t particularly enthusiastic about Sen. Barbara Boxer (D). She’s a polarizing political figure and running at or below 50 percent in ballot tests against either Assemblyman Chuck DeVore or businesswoman Carly Fiorina, two of the leading Republicans in the race.

Still, DeVore doesn’t have the breadth of appeal or money to defeat Boxer, while Fiorina has plenty of baggage.

Boxer’s prospects would take a hit, of course, if California Republicans were to nominate former Rep. Tom Campbell, a moderate who would have considerable statewide appeal — if he could accumulate the resources for an expensive statewide race. But Campbell’s past fundraising isn’t encouraging.

For now, Boxer’s weakness does not yet translate into a serious Republican opportunity.

In Wisconsin, some polling has shown Sen. Russ Feingold (D) having trouble in a race against former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R). The only problem is that Thompson isn’t now running for the Senate, though he is considering it. And Feingold, who voted against the Troubled Asset Relief Program, is a savvy politician who has developed a reputation for independence.

The main Republican contender currently is Terrence Wall, a prosperous real estate developer who put $300,000 into his campaign but hasn’t paid state taxes in nine of the past 10 years. Democrats apparently have other tax ammunition to use against Wall.

When I interviewed Wall recently, he refused to give his date of birth. He only offered the year of his birth (and his age), apparently because he is concerned about identity theft. Wall, in other words, has a long way to go before he is a serious threat to Feingold, even in a bad year for Democrats.

Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) is another smart politician, and while Republican insiders hope to recruit someone who can test the Senator, they don’t have a formidable challenger yet. Until they do, there isn’t any reason to see Washington as a GOP takeover opportunity.

Obviously, Sen. Evan Bayh’s (D-Ind.) sudden announcement Monday that he will not seek re-election improves GOP prospects in that state and therefore nationally.

While some polling showed the Democrat at risk, a recent Research 2000 poll for the liberal Web site the Daily Kos showed him leading former Sen. Dan Coats by 20 points. Bayh’s political savvy, strong connection to Hoosier voters and $13 million bank account would have made him a formidable foe for any Republican challenger, so his exit automatically improves GOP prospects, especially given the overall landscape of the election cycle.

Bayh’s retirement puts an eighth Democratic seat at considerable risk, forcing the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to be even more on the defensive than it was. But in another sense, it doesn’t change things fundamentally. For even after Bayh’s retirement, a Republican gain of 10 seats is more hype than reality.

[Torie]

I think Campbell is leading in the polls in the GOP primary, and suspect he is the favorite to get the nomination. He is a well known figure. Stu is wrong about that in my opinion, but right that the odds of the GOP gaining 10 seats are highly remote.