Rothenberg Senate Rankings

[justfollowingtheelections]

Well he will be 77 in 2010 and he was seriously considering retiring.  But then again he's on Twitter, so who knows?

btw is he dyslexic or something?  I was reading his twitter page and he doesn't make any sense at all:
http://twitter.com/ChuckGrassley

Is he worse than  Rep. Peter Hoekstra (R-Mich.) who tweeted this: “Daescle(sp?)/Geitner/Rangel all avoided/cheated on taxes!Daescle latest!They don’t mind raising taxes because they don’t pay them.”

*actual quote

Yeah much worse... all this Hoekstra guy did was misspell a few names. 

But Grassley is now hip hop so I guess it dont matta:
C U at UNI Men BB 730pm Sat
Most of my meetings on health care reform are biparty.
Concentrate on what Obama said abt parental invovment in kids education. I'm going to help him. Wout spending one penny that will do good
Watch!!! Shortly I and colleagues will b marching into House for Pres speech. On TV
First day back in DC. Spend hrs going thru all communication handed me on my 24 county tour. doubt if I've evr collected so much in 28yrs

:lol:

[justfollowingtheelections]

The above are all Grassley quotes.  I don't know anything about Twitter so I thought that maybe this is what everyone does there, but then I saw MacCaskill's site and she sounds like a normal person:   http://twitter.com/clairecmc

The Republicans have truly lost their mind...

[Lunar]

Politico often uses Claire's twitters as part of their own newsfeeds, given their quality and interest-factor.  The Politico bloggers even self-imposed a boycott on her tweets so that they wouldn't constantly create posts about her updates.

[Holmes]

I love these twitters, they're like the cutest thing ever.

[Nym90]

Here are our latest Senate ratings. In the face of poor polling numbers and media stories, we've moved Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd (D) from Currently Safe to Clear Advantage. Republicans don't yet have a candidate against him, but Dodd can't be considered safe.

Lean Takeover (0 R, 0 D)

Toss-Up (5 R, 0 D)

    * Bunning (R-KY)
    * FL Open (Martinez, R)
    * MO Open (Bond, R)
    * NH Open (Gregg, R)
    * OH Open (Voinovich, R)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 2 D)

    * Burr (R-NC)
    * Specter (R-PA)
    * Vitter (R-LA)
    * Bennet (D-CO)
    * Reid (D-NV)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R, 3 D)

    * Grassley (R-IA)
    * Dodd (D-CT)
    * Dorgan (D-ND)
    * Feingold (D-WI)

Currently Safe (10 R, 12 D)

    * Bennett (R-UT)
    * Coburn (R-OK)
    * Crapo (R-ID)
    * DeMint (R-SC)
    * Isakson (R-GA)
    * McCain (R-AZ)
    * Murkowski (R-AK)
    * Shelby (R-AL)
    * Thune (R-SD)
    * KS Open (Brownback, R)
    * Bayh (D-IN)
    * Boxer (D-CA)
    * Burris (D-IL)
    * Gillibrand (D-NY)
    * Inouye (D-HI)
    * Kaufman (D-DE)
    * Leahy (D-VT)
    * Lincoln (D-AR)
    * Mikulski (D-MD)
    * Murray (D-WA)
    * Schumer (D-NY)
    * Wyden (D-OR)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Here are our latest Senate ratings. In the face of poor polling numbers and media stories, we've moved Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd (D) from Currently Safe to Clear Advantage. Republicans don't yet have a candidate against him, but Dodd can't be considered safe.

Lean Takeover (0 R, 0 D)

Toss-Up (5 R, 0 D)

    * Bunning (R-KY)
    * FL Open (Martinez, R)
    * MO Open (Bond, R)
    * NH Open (Gregg, R)
    * OH Open (Voinovich, R)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 2 D)

    * Burr (R-NC)
    * Specter (R-PA)
    * Vitter (R-LA)
    * Bennet (D-CO)
    * Reid (D-NV)

Excellent news

[Lunar]

I think New Hampshire should be lean takeover and Ohio should be a narrow advantage (it's not 2006 and it's a midterm election), but ok. Florida could be a tossup if Iorio enters...

[Nym90]

Lean Takeover (2 R, 0 D)

    * Bunning (R-KY) #
    * Specter (R-PA) #

Toss-Up (3 R, 1 D)

    * MO Open (Bond, R)
    * NH Open (Gregg, R)
    * OH Open (Voinovich, R)
    * Dodd (D-CT) *

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 1 D)

    * FL Open (Martinez, R) *
    * Burr (R-NC)
    * Reid (D-NV)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R, 3 D)

    * Vitter (R-LA) *
    * Bennet (D-CO) #
    * Burris (D-IL) *
    * Lincoln (D-AR) *

Currently Safe (11 R, 12 D)

    * Bennett (R-UT)
    * Coburn (R-OK)
    * Crapo (R-ID)
    * DeMint (R-SC)
    * Grassley (R-IA) *
    * Isakson (R-GA)
    * McCain (R-AZ)
    * Murkowski (R-AK)
    * Shelby (R-AL)
    * Thune (R-SD)
    * KS Open (Brownback, R)
    * DE Open (Kaufman, D)
    * Bayh (D-IN)
    * Boxer (D-CA)
    * Dorgan (D-ND) #
    * Feingold (D-WI) #
    * Gillibrand (D-NY)
    * Inouye (D-HI)
    * Leahy (D-VT)
    * Mikulski (D-MD)
    * Murray (D-WA)
    * Schumer (D-NY)
    * Wyden (D-OR)

[Landslide Lyndon]

PA Lean Takeover but NH just Toss Up?

At least in New Hampshire the Democrats have a more than credible candidate who is currently against nobody.
And how someone as cautious as Rothenberg has already written off Specter? I'm not saying that things are looking good for him, but the primaray is one year away. Who knows what happens until then?

[Badger]

I think PA is about right. No, before anyone asks, I don't consider everything Nate
Silver says to be divinely inspired, but his recent review of the race (placing odds of a party switch at about 5 to 3) was actually on the mark.

In NH Hodes has a clear run to the nomination, the GOP there has no bench, and given the clear recent trend in the Granite State's (indeed, all of New England's) voting, this seat's currently at least a "lean takeover".

MO a toss-up? Only if Steelman wins the primary AND Obama's around a 45% approval rating in the state come election day. At present time however that seems a generous ranking.

Finally, I'm not sure KY should be so highly ranked. Not because I think Bunning stands a prayer of re-election, but I just don't quite believe he'll wind up as the Republican nominee. Considering the horrible state of his fundraising and his continual capacity for gaffes (to increase steadily as the KY media focuses more on the race in the next year), I would put better than even odds he'll either go down in the primary or some sane friends and family will read the writting on the wall and convince him to retire (but more likely the former considering his trademark stubbornness and dementia).

[Brittain33]

Finally, I'm not sure KY should be so highly ranked. Not because I think Bunning stands a prayer of re-election, but I just don't quite believe he'll wind up as the Republican nominee.

Well, let's look at it this way. If Bunning is the nominee, it is Safe Democratic Takeover. The Democrats have multiple top-tier nominees running for the seat, while all of the potential Republicans (short of Grayson, who won't primary Bunning) are second-tier. You could do a weighted average of performance with Bunning or without Bunning as the nominee and possible get Lean Takeover. I don't know if that's how Rothenburg calculated it, though. Burris is an interesting counterexample for a similar phenomenon.

[Verily]

Nevada is definitely more than Narrow Advantage at this point. Reid is reasonably popular in his state, and the Republicans have nobody but jokes lining up to take him on. And Nevada is nowhere near as Republican these days as it has been in the past. It's wishful thinking to put Reid at anything but Clear Advantage.

Otherwise I mostly agree with the ratings.

[Lunar]

And one of the most prominent GOP fundraisers in the state has endorsed Reid...and I don't see anyone lining up, just the top three candidates running away.  If Heller runs, I'd give the GOP a higher chance, but he doesn't represent the area of the state (Vegas burbs) where the GOP most needs to make inroads...

[Nym90]

2010 Senate Ratings

Here are our latest Senate ratings, reflecting Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter's switch from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party.

#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (1 R, 0 D)

    * Bunning (R-KY)

Toss-Up (3 R, 1 D)

    * MO Open (Bond, R)
    * NH Open (Gregg, R)
    * OH Open (Voinovich, R)
    * Dodd (D-CT)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 1 D)

    * FL Open (Martinez, R)
    * Burr (R-NC)
    * Reid (D-NV)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R, 4 D)

    * Vitter (R-LA)
    * Bennet (D-CO)
    * Burris (D-IL)
    * Lincoln (D-AR)
    * Specter (D-PA) #

Currently Safe (11 R, 12 D)

    * Bennett (R-UT)
    * Coburn (R-OK)
    * Crapo (R-ID)
    * DeMint (R-SC)
    * Grassley (R-IA)
    * Isakson (R-GA)
    * McCain (R-AZ)
    * Murkowski (R-AK)
    * Shelby (R-AL)
    * Thune (R-SD)
    * KS Open (Brownback, R)
    * DE Open (Kaufman, D)
    * Bayh (D-IN)
    * Boxer (D-CA)
    * Dorgan (D-ND)
    * Feingold (D-WI)
    * Gillibrand (D-NY)
    * Inouye (D-HI)
    * Leahy (D-VT)
    * Mikulski (D-MD)
    * Murray (D-WA)
    * Schumer (D-NY)
    * Wyden (D-OR)

[Brittain33]

    * Specter (D-PA)

Wow.

[© tweed]

    * Specter (D-PA)

Wow.

looks weird, don't it

[Nym90]

Here are our latest Senate ratings, reflecting Attorney General Lisa Madigan's (D) decision not to run for the U.S. Senate in Illinois and Cong. Mark Kirk's (R) decision to run.

#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (1 R, 0 D)

    * Bunning (R-KY)

Toss-Up (3 R, 1 D)

    * MO Open (Bond, R)
    * NH Open (Gregg, R)
    * OH Open (Voinovich, R)
    * Dodd (D-CT)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 2 D)

    * FL Open (Martinez, R)
    * Burr (R-NC)
    * Burris (D-IL) *
    * Reid (D-NV)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R, 3 D)

    * Vitter (R-LA)
    * Bennet (D-CO)
    * Lincoln (D-AR)
    * Specter (D-PA)

Currently Safe (11 R, 12 D)

    * Bennett (R-UT)
    * Coburn (R-OK)
    * Crapo (R-ID)
    * DeMint (R-SC)
    * Grassley (R-IA)
    * Isakson (R-GA)
    * McCain (R-AZ)
    * Murkowski (R-AK)
    * Shelby (R-AL)
    * Thune (R-SD)
    * KS Open (Brownback, R)
    * DE Open (Kaufman, D)
    * Bayh (D-IN)
    * Boxer (D-CA)
    * Dorgan (D-ND)
    * Feingold (D-WI)
    * Gillibrand (D-NY)
    * Inouye (D-HI)
    * Leahy (D-VT)
    * Mikulski (D-MD)
    * Murray (D-WA)
    * Schumer (D-NY)
    * Wyden (D-OR)

[DownWithTheLeft]

Delaware safe? LOLZ

[Holmes]

Yeah, no kidding. I can see why the Democratic-leaning electorate of Delaware would vote for a 70 year old Republican with a history of health problems and would only serve for 4 years and only wants to run Senate because he thinks the House is too difficult, over the popular vice-president's young son, whose last name recognition cancels out Castle's.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Castle only raised $125k for the second quarter. Does not augur well for the Castle for Senate crowd.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2009/07/what-will-delaware-rep-castle.html

[Ronnie]

It's premature to say that Kentucky is lean takeover.  The primary hasn't even begun!

[Brittain33]

It's premature to say that Kentucky is lean takeover.  The primary hasn't even begun!

I believe Rothenburg goes according to declared candidates only, which explains Kentucky and Delaware.

[Ronnie]

It's premature to say that Kentucky is lean takeover.  The primary hasn't even begun!

I believe Rothenburg goes according to declared candidates only, which explains Kentucky and Delaware.

Well that's dumb.

[Nym90]

Here are our latest Senate ratings.

#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans

Toss-Up (4 R, 2 D)

    * KY Open (Bunning, R) *
    * MO Open (Bond, R)
    * NH Open (Gregg, R)
    * OH Open (Voinovich, R)
    * IL Open (Burris, D) *
    * Dodd (D-CT)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 2 D)

    * Burr (R-NC)
    * Vitter (R-LA) #
    * Reid (D-NV)
    * Specter (D-PA) *

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R, 2 D)

    * FL Open (Martinez, R) *
    * Bennet (D-CO)
    * Lincoln (D-AR)

Currently Safe (11 R, 12 D)

    * Bennett (R-UT)
    * Coburn (R-OK)
    * Crapo (R-ID)
    * DeMint (R-SC)
    * Grassley (R-IA)
    * Isakson (R-GA)
    * McCain (R-AZ)
    * Murkowski (R-AK)
    * Shelby (R-AL)
    * Thune (R-SD)
    * KS Open (Brownback, R)
    * DE Open (Kaufman, D)
    * Bayh (D-IN)
    * Boxer (D-CA)
    * Dorgan (D-ND)
    * Feingold (D-WI)
    * Gillibrand (D-NY)
    * Inouye (D-HI)
    * Leahy (D-VT)
    * Mikulski (D-MD)
    * Murray (D-WA)
    * Schumer (D-NY)
    * Wyden (D-OR)

[TeePee4Prez]

Yeah, no kidding. I can see why the Democratic-leaning electorate of Delaware would vote for a 70 year old Republican with a history of health problems and would only serve for 4 years and only wants to run Senate because he thinks the House is too difficult, over the popular vice-president's young son, whose last name recognition cancels out Castle's.

Agreed.  Castle is not outweighing Biden in ANY case.