2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

The vicinity of the Fulda area can't have hurt... nor can the fact that the local party was called CDU throughout the GDR... nor the fact that Althaus is from there.
Still, doesn't seem immediately obvious.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The vicinity of the Fulda area can't have hurt... nor can the fact that the local party was called CDU throughout the GDR... nor the fact that Althaus is from there.
Still, doesn't seem immediately obvious.

I go with a cheap "East Berlin of the Right" explanation then and will be oblivious to sane counter-arguments

[Middle-aged Europe]

Without weighting

GRÜNE, SPD (53 of 76 each)
DIE LINKE (51)
PIRATEN (44)
FDP (41)
NPD (37)
DVU (35)
CDU/CSU (33)

(WTF?)


With weighting

GRÜNE (63)
DIE LINKE, SPD (61 each)
PIRATEN (54)
FDP (51)
NPD, DVU, CDU/CSU (39 each)

[Hash]

Green 51
FDP 46
SPD 46
Pirate 46
Linke 42
NPD 38
CDU/CSU 37
REP 31

[ag]

I would be a pretty loyal FDP guy. I only really badly disagree w/ them on referenda: I am vehemently against those - and on Turkey (I want it in EU badly). The rest is minor. An absolutely unsurprizing ranking overall:

FDP
CDU/CSU
SPD
Gruene
Linke
NDP

[Tender Branson]

New federal poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen:

CDU/CSU: 37%
SPD: 23%
FDP: 15%
Greens: 11%
Left: 10%
Others: 4%

CDU/CSU-FDP: 52%
SPD-Greens-Left: 44%

New Infratest dimap poll for the Schleswig-Holstein state elections (on the same day the federal elections take place):

CDU: 33% (-7 compared with 2005 state elections)
SPD: 24% (-15)
FDP: 16% (+9)
Greens: 14% (+8)
Left: 7% (+6)
SSW: 3% (-1)
Others: 3% (nc)

CDU-FDP: 49% (+2)
SPD-Greens-Left-SSW: 48% (-2)

Also, Infratest dimap on how Schleswig-Holsteiners would vote in the federal elections:

CDU: 36% (nc compared with 2005 state elections)
SPD: 27% (-11)
FDP: 15% (+5)
Greens: 12% (+4)
Left: 7% (+2)
Others: 3% (nc)

CDU-FDP: 51% (+5)
SPD-Greens-Left: 46% (-5)

[minionofmidas]

http://www.cicero.de/97.php?ress_id=13&item=4154

Excellent interview with an intelligent Christian Democrat (in an intellectual but not usually intelligent Conservative magazine). A must read if you speak German. I might even do an English translation if there's demand.

[Franzl]

my wahl-o-mat results:

1.) FDP
2.) CDU/CSU
3.) SPD
4.) REP
5.) Die Violetten
6.) Grüne
7.) Left
8.) NPD

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[minionofmidas]

Sort of hard to tell that Völklingen was won by the Left...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sort of hard to tell that Völklingen was won by the Left...

Yeah, the trouble is that pink and reddish purple start to look a lot like each other when they get very light. It's clear enough in the context of the other maps though.

[minionofmidas]

See the tiny municipality just east of Saarlouis, Ensdorf? (Smallest place with the darkest shade on the Left Party map. Quite light blue on the winner map.) That's where the (main entrance to, anyhow) last deepshaft coalmine on the Saar is located. Due for closure in 2012 unless more subsidies are coughed up.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

See the tiny municipality just east of Saarlouis, Ensdorf? (Smallest place with the darkest shade on the Left Party map. Quite light blue on the winner map.) That's where the (main entrance to, anyhow) last deepshaft coalmine on the Saar is located. Due for closure in 2012 unless more subsidies are coughed up.

Interesting - I didn't think there were any left. Is most of the workforce local or moved in from other (closed) pits?

[minionofmidas]

See the tiny municipality just east of Saarlouis, Ensdorf? (Smallest place with the darkest shade on the Left Party map. Quite light blue on the winner map.) That's where the (main entrance to, anyhow) last deepshaft coalmine on the Saar is located. Due for closure in 2012 unless more subsidies are coughed up.

Interesting - I didn't think there were any left. Is most of the workforce local or moved in from other (closed) pits?

Dude, how am I supposed to know that? Workforce moved in from the closed Saar pits would count as "local" in my book anyhow.

What I can tell you (because it's on Wikipedia) is that they employ almost 4000 people, though I don't know how many of them are miners. The figure probably includes quite a few white collar people.
And that one of its shafts - the Nordschaft - is the deepest in Europe at 1750m (5700 feet). Which sounds pretty incredible.

There's some complex stuff about official amalgamation of the Ensdorf and Warmdt/Luisenthal mines (Luisenthal is a neighborhood in Völklingen) in 2004, a year before operations in Luisenthal actually ceased, and closure of part of the Ensdorf mine in 2008.

There are still four mines in the Ruhr area, after two closed in 2008. One is scheduled to close in 2010, one in 2012. The other two are safe until at least 2018 - there is no political decision as such to close them after that (there is one on the Saar, but it is *political* and might theoretically be repealed. And would be if the Left Party could decide on its own), but it'd presumably require some new subsidies.
And - I was surprised to learn - one in the Tecklenburg Country (Northernmost part of the Münsterland, where they vote more Social Democratic again. Actually, people there don't identify as Münsterlanders). Also safe til 2018.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Dude, how am I supposed to know that? Workforce moved in from the closed Saar pits would count as "local" in my book anyhow.

It was worth a try

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Quite a lot, unless it's a huge pit.

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Heh. A shaft that deep makes me think of where my Taid's dad worke. The other stuff is interesting as well

[Хahar 🤔]

Social Equality: 57
Animal Welfare: 53
Communist: 51
Marxist-Leninist: 51
Left: 49
Pirate: 45
Green: 44
Pensioner: 44
Violet: 44
Retirees: 41
Free Voters: 40
Ecological Democratic: 39
Bible-Abiding Christians: 38
Free Democratic: 38
Family: 37
Middle: 35
National Democratic: 35
Social Democratic: 34
Bavaria: 33
LaRouche: 31
People's Union: 31
Christian Democratic: 30
Center: 27
Republican: 27

[minionofmidas]

Social Equality: 57

Ah, the German Section of the Trotskyite International.

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I was always unsure how to best translate that name. Your translation looks to be better than anything I ever thought of.

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Who? What's the full German name?

[Tender Branson]

The latest from Jürgen "Macaca" Rüttgers:

NRW premier Rüttgers apologises after insulting Romanians



The state premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, Jürgen Rüttgers, has come under heavy criticism and been forced to apologise for saying that Romanian workers are undisciplined and do not know what they are doing.

The Christian Democratic Union head of the populous western German state was talking about Nokia’s move of a factory away from Duisburg to Romania when he said, “In contrast to the workers here in the Ruhr area, those in Romania do not show up at seven in the morning for the first shift and stay until the end. Instead they come and go when they want, and don’t know what they are doing.”

His speech – at an election rally in Duisburg – was filmed and posted on Youtube by members of the rival Social Democratic Party. The Dortmund-based newspaper Westfälische Rundschau reported at the weekend that he repeated the quote two days later at a rally in Münster.

He also sketched out a remarkable strategy to attract the attention of potential Chinese investors to the region, saying, “And if we have to, then we will meet up with some Chinese at something at the town hall, and if they then don’t want to finally invest in Duisburg, then they will also be throttled – until they find Duisburg beautiful.”

The state secretary general of the Social Democratic Party, Michael Groschek said although Rüttgers liked to compare himself with previous minister presidents, his latest speeches showed, “once again, that this is just a pose.”

Head of the local Greens, Daniela Schneckenburger said, “That is really from the lowest drawer of populism.”

The Berlin-based German-Romanian Association also criticised Rüttgers, saying it was troubling that he was serving prejudices in such a populist manner, and that European solidarity should be expected from a state premier.

Rüttgers attracted fierce criticism during the 2000 state election for his slogan Kinder statt Inder – or "Children rather than Indians" – at a time when the government of the time was trying to attract well-qualified foreigners to immigrate to fill empty jobs in the high-tech sector.

He apologised on Friday for the Romanian remarks, saying, “I was standing in front of North Rhine-Westphalian workers, whose fabulous efforts are globally acknowledged and who have lost their workplaces due to bad decisions taken at company headquarters. I did not want to insult anyone, and if that happened, I am sorry.”

http://www.thelocal.de/politics/20090905-21719.html

[minionofmidas]

The Romanian mechanic of a company I sometimes sub for does indeed not always know what he's doing. But he isn't lazy.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Bible-Abiding Christians: 38

I was always unsure how to best translate that name. Your translation looks to be better than anything I ever thought of.

That's also the translation used by the English Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_of_Bible-abiding_Christians

Middle: 35

Who? What's the full German name?

Probably the "Allianz der Mitte" (ADM). Could be translated as "Alliance of the Center", I guess. Not to be confused with the "Zentrum" party. ADM is on the ballot in Baden-Württemberg only.

[minionofmidas]

Direct candidates.

CDU/CSU, SPD and FDP have direct candidates everywhere. Left misses two constituencies, Greens three (I was surprised to learn the Greens have always left at least one constituency uncontested so far), NPD six. What's more all these constituencies are in North Rhine Westphalia.
The party with the next most candidates is the MLPD - 46 direct candidates, three more than the LaRouchites.

List:
Left: Gelsenkirchen, Herne - Bochum II (wtf? Those are very strong areas for the party.)
Greens: Steinfurt III, Warendorf, Siegen-Wittgenstein
NPD: Kleve, Warendorf (which has no "other" candidate either, and thus the lowest total of all constituencies - just four), Herford - Minden-Lübbecke II, Minden-Lübbecke I, Lippe I,  and, well, I must have overlooked one checking all the constituencies in the state.

[Tender Branson]

The latest news from Thüringen is that Birgit Diezel (CDU), who became acting PM after Gov. Dieter Althaus (CDU) resigned, has refused to become Gov. in the event of a Grand-Coalition.

She is now backing State Social Minister Christine Lieberknecht (CDU) to become Governor, even though some in the CDU-Thüringen parliamentary group favor the retired former governor Bernhard Vogel (76) to make a comeback.

 

Left: Lieberknecht, Middle: Diezel, Right: Vogel

[minionofmidas]

In a sense, not news. Lieberknecht's name was the one name touted by all and sundry as a potential leader of a Grand Coalition. I was a little surprised no one's namedropping Schipanski, btw.

[minionofmidas]

Brandenburg votes on the same day as the federal election, but there are no recent polls whatsoever.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Weird things are happening in Thuringia: Althaus is back!

Apparently, he noticed that according to the Thuringian constitution he isn't allowed to leave office until a successor is elected by the state parliament. So his unconstitutional resignation was sort of retroactively withdrawn. He's back in office (officially he was never gone).