2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

Election Calendar:

18th January - Hesse
23rd May - Presidential election (lol)
7th June - European Elections, local elections in, like, half the country
30th August - Saarland, Thuringia, Saxony (nice timing by state CDU governments...)
27th September - federal elections, Brandenburg

[Tender Branson]

Should we also include the 2009 Austrian state elections here like in the 2008 edition or should I create a seperate topic ?

There will be elections in Salzburg, Vorarlberg, Upper Austria and Carinthia (also local elections) as well as European Parliament Elections.

[minionofmidas]

I'd say separate topic. It's a separate country.

[Tender Branson]

2 new Hesse polls:

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF/FAZ

CDU: 41 (+4)
SPD: 26 (-11)
Greens: 12 (+4)
FDP: 12 (+3)
The Left: 5 (nc)
Others: 4 (nc)

Infratest-dimap for HR

CDU - 41
SPD - 23
Greens - 14
FDP - 13
The Left - 6
Others - 3

Majority for CDU/FDP.

[Franzl]

haha....great numbers.

[Tender Branson]

Based on Old Europe's new name:





But isn't Roland Koch the real Hessian Barack Obama ?

[minionofmidas]

But isn't Roland Koch the real Hessian Barack Obama ?

No, he's the Hessian Tom DeLay. And that's being mean to a certain Texan gentleman.

[Tender Branson]

Interestingly, Secretary of State Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD) is now more popular than Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) (74% approve of the job Steinmeier is doing and 65% approve of the job Merkel is doing), but according to 2 polls the SPD doesn't benefit and Merkel would defeat Steinmeier by a wide margin in a direct vote for Chancellor:

Forsa

Merkel - 51%
Steinmeier - 23%

CDU - 38%
SPD - 23%

Infratest dimap

Merkel - 52%
Steinmeier - 35%

CDU - 37%
SPD - 23%

[Franzl]

Can we please hold the federal election now?

[2952-0-0]

I'd say separate topic. It's a separate country.

Addie wished this was not the case.

[Tender Branson]

New Forsa poll for Hesse:

CDU: 42%
SPD: 23%
FDP: 13%
Greens: 12%
The Left: 6%
Others: 4%

Strong majority for CDU-FDP ...

[Franzl]

Bye Bye Schäfer-(whatever)!

[big bad fab]

Interestingly, Secretary of State Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD) is now more popular than Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) (74% approve of the job Steinmeier is doing and 65% approve of the job Merkel is doing), but according to 2 polls the SPD doesn't benefit and Merkel would defeat Steinmeier by a wide margin in a direct vote for Chancellor:

Forsa

Merkel - 51%
Steinmeier - 23%

CDU - 38%
SPD - 23%

Infratest dimap

Merkel - 52%
Steinmeier - 35%

CDU - 37%
SPD - 23%

Foreign policy is more and more, in many European countries, something completely disconnected from other political subjects and voters aren't interested in it.

So, they can appreciate (or not) a foreign secretary or minister, whatever his/her political stand.

[minionofmidas]

SPD posters seem to be making the same mistake as in 2002... no matter how disgusted the median member of Hesse's eligible voter population is with Roland Koch ("physically revolted" seems about right), that's not enough to get him to the polls and vote for somebody else.

They'll need a positive reason too. Last year's campaign provided them. It also created the (false) impression that the SPD had somehow united behind the relatively left-wing program. Ironically, the SPD is far more united now then it was a year ago, but try convincing the average voter of that...
Meh. At least this will make for a strong Green result (again, as in 2002.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

SPD posters seem to be making the same mistake as in 2002... no matter how disgusted the median member of Hesse's eligible voter population is with Roland Koch ("physically revolted" seems about right), that's not enough to get him to the polls and vote for somebody else.

They'll need a positive reason too. Last year's campaign provided them. It also created the (false) impression that the SPD had somehow united behind the relatively left-wing program. Ironically, the SPD is far more united now then it was a year ago, but try convincing the average voter of that...
Meh. At least this will make for a strong Green result (again, as in 2002.)

Heh. Sounds like the 1987 election here...

[Frodo]

I like the numbers for the CDP. 

How are they polling on the federal level? 

[Psychic Octopus]

German Elections are weird.

[Franzl]

German Elections are weird.

indeed

curious though what exactly you mean.

[Tender Branson]

I like the numbers for the CDP. 

How are they polling on the federal level? 

Here's a summary of the latest federal election polls:

CDU/CSU: 36-38%
SPD: 24-26%
FDP: 11-13%
The Left: 11-13%
Greens: 10-11%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm

But that can rapidely change. At the end of the 2005 campaign the polls showed something similar, just to see that CDU/CSU won the election by 1%. Don't know though if the polls were that wrong or the CDU/CSU so bad and SPD so strong ...

[minionofmidas]

But that can rapidely change. At the end of the 2005 campaign the polls showed something similar, just to see that CDU/CSU won the election by 1%. Don't know though if the polls were that wrong or the CDU/CSU so bad and SPD so strong ...

The polling models are dead sh!tty. Rapid poll swings in Germany* occur due to two factors - swings within the basic political camps (such as the huge last minute swing from the CDU to the FDP in 2005. Or the big swings among what one might have believed to be core Green voters to the SPD in Hesse and Hamburg early this year). And swings between one of the camps - usually their main party - and the "They're All Crap, I won't Vote!" camp. And though the CDU isn't immune to that phenomenon (at least not while in office) it is far more common among SPD leaners. Which is why a centrist course can be electoral poison for the SPD. All of this is common knowledge, and *should be* factorable into a polling model (though of course the confidence interval would have to be huge). It is not.

*Or maybe make that West Germany. East Germany tics differently, and Bavaria tics differently *again* (though in that case there's an intermediate zone in southern Württemberg and parts of Franconia. Although arguably there's an intermediate zone between East and West Germany too - namely West (and parts of East) Berlin.

[minionofmidas]

Lists for the Hesse state election this year (apparently this is in ballot order):

CDU
SPD
FDP
Greens
Left
REP
FW
NPD
Pirate Party (an anti copyright laws party First ran last year, when they got 0.3%. )
BüSo (LaRouchiacs)

Fewer parties than usual. Happens with early elections - tiny parties find it harder to fill out the necessary paperwork, find the handful of signatures needed, etc.

Direct candidates: CDU (same as last time except in V), SPD (same as last time everywhere), FDP, Greens, Left, REP have candidates everywhere. No NPD candidate in V. BüSo candidates in III and V. An independent (never heard of him) in IV.
New Green and Left candidates in my constituency... which is a good thing since the Left candidate here last time was not somebody I'd ever vote for, not even as a protest...

[Tender Branson]

Pirate Party (an anti copyright laws party First ran last year, when they got 0.3%. )

I've heard they are polling at 7-21% right now in Sweden ...

[Hash]

What constituency be "V"?

[minionofmidas]

What constituency be "V"?

Frankfurt 5. Bornheim, North End, East End. Much the smallest in area. And much the greenest in election results.

[Hash]

What constituency be "V"?

Frankfurt 5. Bornheim, North End, East End. Much the smallest in area. And much the greenest in election results.

Why is there no CDU candidate?