Virginia 2009 Megathread

[HappyWarrior]

I maintain that McAuliffeMoran would be doing much better right now.

[Stampever]

I maintain that McAuliffeMoran would be doing much better right now.

I'm inclined to agree (that McAuliffe was a bad candidate).

[Vepres]

Deeds is just digging himself further and further in.

Well, I hope he loses too. Hopefully Virginia Dems learn a lesson and next time don't nominate another blue dog idiot just because he got a newspaper endorsement.

This reminds me of Republicans saying McCain lost because he wasn't conservative enough

[Lief 🗽]

Deeds is just digging himself further and further in.

Well, I hope he loses too. Hopefully Virginia Dems learn a lesson and next time don't nominate another blue dog idiot just because he got a newspaper endorsement.

This reminds me of Republicans saying McCain lost because he wasn't conservative enough

Completely different. The reason Deeds is going to be blown away in a few weeks is because Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are not going to turn out. If you recalculate all these polls with the 2008 turnouts, then the race is within the margin of error. Being a DINO is not going to encourage Democrats in NoVA or blacks throughout the state to turnout in an off-year election. Of course, being a terrible candidate who can't articulate his positions and spends the entire campaign attacking the opposition while flailing around trying to defend himself will also contibute to Deed's humiliating loss.

[Stampever]

I know it's a radical idea, but let's just suppose for a second that McDonnell isn't McCain and Deeds isn't Obama.  OMG!  It's a totally different election!

[ajc0918]

VA: 2009 Gov Hypothetical (PPP 10/16-19)

Public Policy Polling (D)
10/16-19/09; 666 likely voters, 3.8% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

Virginia

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 41 / 52 (chart)
Gov. Kaine: 46 / 39 (chart)
Sen. Warner: 53 / 31 (chart)
Sen. Webb: 42 / 40 (chart)

If Tim Kaine was allowed to run for reelection would you vote for Democrat Tim Kaine or
Republican Bob McDonnell?
51% McDonnell, 43% Kaine

Do you think that Virginia Governors should be allowed to run for reelection?
57% Yes, 35% No

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/va_2009_gov_hypothetical_ppp_1.php

[tmthforu94]

You have to keep in mind, though, that Kaine hasn't been doing much campaigning in the past year, while McDonnell has been.

[Stampever]

You have to keep in mind, though, that Kaine hasn't been doing much campaigning in the past year, while McDonnell has been.

From my understanding, according to the newspapers Kaine hasn't been doing much of anything (as governor) in the past year.  He is constantly running around the country doing DNC work.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

My final overview for the House of Delegates:

http://swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5786

Brief version: not good for the Democrats.

[Vepres]

My final overview for the House of Delegates:

http://swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5786

Brief version: not good for the Democrats.

Interesting read.

[MODU]

Best of luck, Ben.  I did my absentee ballot a while ago because I wasn't sure if I would be on travel on election day.  I've long argued that Deeds was the Democrat's best chance at winning the election.  But as history has shown, Virginia rarely votes for a governor that shares the same party as the President.  Add in to the past 8 years of Democrat rule and a state government that is having problems meeting their financial obligations, the odds were stacked against him.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Best of luck, Ben.  I did my absentee ballot a while ago because I wasn't sure if I would be on travel on election day.  I've long argued that Deeds was the Democrat's best chance at winning the election.  But as history has shown, Virginia rarely votes for a governor that shares the same party as the President.  Add in to the past 8 years of Democrat rule and a state government that is having problems meeting their financial obligations, the odds were stacked against him.

If you don't mind my asking, how did you vote? I'm particularly interested in the House of Delegates, assuming you're in a competitive district.

[Tender Branson]

PPP is polling Virginia again this weekend and so far they say it looks like last week (R+12).

[Lunar]

[Oakvale]

I'm almost looking forward to McDonnell's victory so the embarassing clusterf**k that is the Deeds campaign will fade from memory.

*shudder*

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The very last round of pre-election campaign finance reports is due today, covering October 1-21. As always, I'll post the statewide candidate totals this evening.

[Tender Branson]

New Washington Post poll to be released later today.

[East Coast Republican]

New Washington Post poll to be released later today.

Yeah ok yet nobody in the entire Atlas world has posted it.  I saw the new Washington Post poll and I can understand why it hasn't been posted here.

Don't expect me to post the poll numbers though.  I won't do anybody favors!!! 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The money keeps flowing...

Creigh Deeds - $2.8m on hand, $3.1m raised, $4.9m spent, $938k on hand
Bob McDonnell - $4.5m on hand, $4.0m raised, $6.7m spent, $1.8m on hand

Bill Bolling - $1.2m on hand, $496k raised, $1.2m spent, $524k on hand
Jody Wagner - $880k on hand, $464k raised, $1.1m spent, $237k on hand

Ken Cuccinelli - $935k on hand, $532k raised, $1.3m spent, $154k on hand
Steve Shannon - $1.4m on hand, $532k raised, $985k spent, $955k on hand

I don't know what Shannon intends to do with that million bucks in the last two weeks of the campaign.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

New Washington Post poll to be released later today.

Yeah ok yet nobody in the entire Atlas world has posted it.  I saw the new Washington Post poll and I can understand why it hasn't been posted here.

Don't expect me to post the poll numbers though.  I won't do anybody favors!!! 

Well, I have to work for a living, so I don't have time to post here all day.

That said, it's here. 55-44 McDonnell. Only good news for Deeds is he's up 56-43 in NoVa, which means the House of Delegates races might not be so much of a bloodbath.

In other news, I got not one, not two, but three mailers from my local Democratic House of Delegates candidate. I would think the fact that I voted in the Democratic primary would suggest that I'm going to vote for him, but who knows.

[East Coast Republican]

Yeah you work for a living ok dude.  Not that I don't believe that but I singled out EVERYBODY on Atlas.

It's interesting that out of everyone here, not one person posted it-especially some of the very active members.  I wonder who the very active members are and why it took them so long to post another poll.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Yeah you work for a living ok dude.  Not that I don't believe that but I singled out EVERYBODY on Atlas.

It's interesting that out of everyone here, not one person posted it-especially some of the very active members.  I wonder who the very active members are and why it took them so long to post another poll.

Go away troll.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Yeah, I'd say this race is looking very bad.  If Deeds does poll 56% in NOVA, though, then he still has a shot, and I'm holding on to that.

Go away troll.

It's much easier to have him on ignore, like I do.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Also, the poll was posted just after 5 PM, so you gave people all of 1 1/2 hours to post it. I don't know about you, but I don't spend my days furiously reloading washingtonpost.com waiting for an update.

[East Coast Republican]

Yeah that's true.  You spend your days furiously reloading Atlas instead.

I'm sorry but that excuse isn't going to fly.  Tender Branson or persons xyz are always over here right away if the result is favorable to Democrats.