Virginia 2009 Megathread

[Eraserhead]

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/3656333311

Yeah, I saw that. Not sure if it means anything though. Only 80-100 interviews, so it's hard to tell whether the story mattered much, or this was just a Deeds sample.

"We'll see".

[Rowan]

Virginia Gov(PPP)

McDonnell 49%
Deeds 42%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_901819.pdf

Very important to note this:

The big question in the race right now of course is the impact that the revelations from McDonnell’s thesis at Regent University will or will not have. Unfortunately we completed 86% of the interviews for this poll on Friday and Saturday so the numbers don’t fully reflect any fall out from that story. However it is worth noting that while McDonnell led 50-41 in the two days of polling before the article, Deeds actually led 50-42 in the 83 interviews conducted on Sunday and Monday.

[Ronnie]

Deeds seems to be narrowing, but I think McDonnell will pull it out in the end.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Deeds seems to be narrowing, but I think McDonnell will pull it out in the end.

Someone finally needs to put the women and homosexuals in their proper place.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Yeah, Deeds is getting closer.  He'll keep this up, and as voters start to pay attention, Deeds will pull ahead, and win on election day.

[War on Want]

Virginia Gov(PPP)

McDonnell 49%
Deeds 42%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_901819.pdf

Very important to note this:

The big question in the race right now of course is the impact that the revelations from McDonnell’s thesis at Regent University will or will not have. Unfortunately we completed 86% of the interviews for this poll on Friday and Saturday so the numbers don’t fully reflect any fall out from that story. However it is worth noting that while McDonnell led 50-41 in the two days of polling before the article, Deeds actually led 50-42 in the 83 interviews conducted on Sunday and Monday.

Wow that is ridiculous.

[Rowan]

I asked what the party ID was of those 83 interviews, but no response. It is possible that it was just a Democratic pool of the total sample.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I asked what the party ID was of those 83 interviews, but no response. It is possible that it was just a Democratic pool of the total sample.

It's possible, although I think they would have mentioned that in the release if it were the case.

[Rowan]

I asked what the party ID was of those 83 interviews, but no response. It is possible that it was just a Democratic pool of the total sample.

It's possible, although I think they would have mentioned that in the release if it were the case.

Or they just wanted to be provocative, and left it out.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I asked what the party ID was of those 83 interviews, but no response. It is possible that it was just a Democratic pool of the total sample.

It's possible, although I think they would have mentioned that in the release if it were the case.

Or they just wanted to be provocative, and left it out.

Also possible

[Sam Spade]

I don't think 83 interviews is enough to read anything, regardless of the quality of the sample.  I'm pretty sure that could be within the MOE of the previous sample results (no, I do not have a calculator here in front of me).

[Rowan]

Yeah, I think Jensen from PPP said it works out to a 10.8% MOE.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'm amused that Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling only has a mediocre 46-40 lead over cash-strapped Jody Wagner. Clue to VA Republicans: do not nominate this guy for governor in four years.

Also, Steve Shannon has managed to piss away the best chance for a Democrat to win the Attorney General office since Mary Sue Terry left office. Good job, Steve. At least the Democrats (might) pick up Cuccinelli's Senate seat.

[Eraserhead]

Virginians seem very sensitive towards political scandals, eh? Anyway, bring on the real post-thesisgate polls.

[Rowan]

Virginia Gov(Rasmussen)

McDonnell 51%
Deeds 42%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/virginia/election_2009_virginia_governor_election


Poll was taken yesterday. So AFTER the thesis brouhaha.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Virginia Gov(Rasmussen)

McDonnell 51%
Deeds 42%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/virginia/election_2009_virginia_governor_election


Poll was taken yesterday. So AFTER the thesis brouhaha.

You forgetting that is RASMUSSEN.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Virginia Gov(Rasmussen)

McDonnell 51%
Deeds 42%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/virginia/election_2009_virginia_governor_election


Poll was taken yesterday. So AFTER the thesis brouhaha.

What are the crosstabs?

[Rowan]

Crosstabs for Ben: All numbers are McDonnell/Deeds

Men: 55/39
Women: 48/44

GOP: 91/3
DEM: 84/12
IND: 62/24

White: 64/30
Black: 9/88

[Kaine for Senate '18]

How large was each group?

[Rowan]

How large was each group?

Rasmussen doesn't release those numbers.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

How large was each group?

Rasmussen doesn't release those numbers.

Big shocker

[YankeeFan007]

How large was each group?

Rasmussen doesn't release those numbers.

Big shocker

Since the Presidential Election I haven't been able to find Rasmussen group numbers.  Anyone who trusts them is making a big mistake.  Some of there polls are far outliers to the right  like the Presidential Approval rating.  They've had Obamas approval rating tiedwith his dissaproval rating for 2 monhs.  All other polls ahve Obama's approval rating 8-24% above the dissaproval rating.  That means that they have at least a 16% difference with all polls.

[Vepres]

How large was each group?

Rasmussen doesn't release those numbers.

Big shocker

Since the Presidential Election I haven't been able to find Rasmussen group numbers.  Anyone who trusts them is making a big mistake.  Some of there polls are far outliers to the right  like the Presidential Approval rating.  They've had Obamas approval rating tiedwith his dissaproval rating for 2 monhs.  All other polls ahve Obama's approval rating 8-24% above the dissaproval rating.  That means that they have at least a 16% difference with all polls.

They're good for elections, bad for approvals.

[Umengus]

How large was each group?

Rasmussen doesn't release those numbers.

Big shocker

Since the Presidential Election I haven't been able to find Rasmussen group numbers.  Anyone who trusts them is making a big mistake.  Some of there polls are far outliers to the right  like the Presidential Approval rating.  They've had Obamas approval rating tiedwith his dissaproval rating for 2 monhs.  All other polls ahve Obama's approval rating 8-24% above the dissaproval rating.  That means that they have at least a 16% difference with all polls.

Rasmussen polls Likely voters, others firms poll adults. It's a reason to explain the difference (at least 3 points, maybe plus). Rass push also the undecideds.

CBS and ipsos polls are joke because the party id of their poll is not conform to the reality (euphemism).

Idem for gallup poll wich was terrible in 2008.

Some polls institutes confirm +- rasmussen: zogby (ok zogby is bad), R2000 (bad also) democracy corps (good reputation), susa (idem), PPP.

Conclusion: Rasmussen is not an outlier and historic is there to confirm this conclusion (sorry it it's not conform with your liberal biais)

[Dan the Roman]

How large was each group?

Rasmussen doesn't release those numbers.

Big shocker

Since the Presidential Election I haven't been able to find Rasmussen group numbers.  Anyone who trusts them is making a big mistake.  Some of there polls are far outliers to the right  like the Presidential Approval rating.  They've had Obamas approval rating tiedwith his dissaproval rating for 2 monhs.  All other polls ahve Obama's approval rating 8-24% above the dissaproval rating.  That means that they have at least a 16% difference with all polls.

They're good for elections, bad for approvals.

The key things with approvals is that by offering five options he ends up with much mushier numbers. When times are good, popular politicians poll below what they would with a straight-dissaprove question, but they also rarely get as low as they do with other firms when they are unpopular. At the same time Obama is at about 10 points below where he is with every other firm, Deval Patrick is in Rasmussen polls about 12-15 points above where he is in other polls.

There is a little bit to do with likely voters, but it also has a lot to do with what question. Same thing for Kos. Kos does not ask approve/disapprove but favorable/unfavorable which tends to lead to very different results. There is far too much conspiracy talk going on.

That said I would not trust any likely voter poll right now except PPP which at least reveals their methodology, and I would not particularly trust their numbers either. The polls are doing the same thing they did two last fall, which is pick up so much static from the political environment that they are measuring depth of support rather than breadth. While I can buy SUSA and Rassmussen's numbers as methodologically credible, I don't think anyone can seriously believe the electorate will look like what they think it is right now in November.