Virginia 2009 Megathread

[Dan the Roman]

So PPP, SUSA, and now WAPO have shown a Republican party ID advantage among likely voters, and you still don't believe it? Come on dude.

I don't believe GOP +7.  I'd be willing to buy GOP +2, but nothing more.

There is no doubt but that the Democrats nominated their strongest candidate, and he probably would be trailing by two points if the national Democrats weren't going absolutely nuts.  Deeds is paying for the nutty actions of the Obamanations.

Ditto, see Terry, Mary Sue or Beyer, Don for the likely result.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Obama has a 57% approval according to the WaPo poll, so I'm not too concerned.

[Ronnie]

Obama has a 57% approval according to the WaPo poll, so I'm not too concerned.

Stop cherrypicking.  First, this poll is way out there when compared to other polls measuring his approval rating in VA, and second, it hardly matters when it comes to the actual race.  The other Washington Post poll has McDonnell leading by around 15 points.

[Rowan]

Obama has a 57% approval according to the WaPo poll, so I'm not too concerned.

Check the approval ratings of Kaine and Webb in the poll too, they are also outliers compared to other polling.

[East Coast Republican]

I could care less who wins the Virginia Governor's race save for the help it would bring to the Republican Party. 

Outside of that, meh.  Honestly, the best guy should win this race.  I won't lie by saying that I'm not pleased that McDonnell has opened up a 15% lead over Deeds.  I think it's time for Deeds for Governor '09 to admit that the oversampling of Republicans is for real.  Even Washington Post (they do horrible polls in my opinion) believes this sample to be the real deal.

[cinyc]

Obama has a 57% approval according to the WaPo poll, so I'm not too concerned.

Among adults, as best I can tell.  Not among likely or even registered voters, which matters more a few months out from the election.

Unless I missed it (or it's in the missing question 14), the WaPo doesn't appear to have asked the who did you vote for in '08 question.  Other polls have shown that the majority of likely voters were McCain supporters.   Deeds simply isn't getting Obama voters to say they are going to go the polls, thus far.   A few visits by Obama might change that - but come at a price as his popularity plummets.

[DownWithTheLeft]

New Washington Post (Aug. 11-14) poll out today:

Registered Voters:

McDonnell: 47%
Deeds: 40%

Likely Voters:

McDonnell: 54%
Deeds: 39%

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_081609.html

Still, I'm not concerned.  This poll has a 34-27 advantage for the GOP, which I find extremely unlikely, likeiwse with a 41-37-20 Conservative-Moderate-Liberal advantage.  On election day, the results will be quite different.

So being at most 5 points on party accounts for a 15 point different?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A little down-ballot news:



No, that's not Kenny Rogers, it's Delegate Phil Hamilton (R-Newport News), who is digging himself deeper and deeper into a hole regarding an ethical problem. Basically, he appropriated money to Old Dominion University then got a job that was funded by his appropriation. Then he lied about not having any contact with ODU about getting the job beforehand. Oops. Republican House Speaker Bill Howell has requested an ethics investigation, and five of the six statewide candidates (Cuccinelli is the only holdout) have called on Hamilton to resign. And Hamilton is facing his first Democratic opponent since 1995, a well-funded lawyer named Robin Abbott. The district has voted for every Democrat running statewide since 2005. Sucks to be him.

[Vepres]

Obama has a 57% approval according to the WaPo poll, so I'm not too concerned.

High black turnout won't happen, high youth turnout isn't likely, Deeds doesn't have Obama's coattails to help him.

[War on Want]

Deeds should start getting more support after Labor Day. He has the funding and the image to at least make this a relativley close race. It isn't like he is a shit candidate, even though his campaign has been done poorly. We'll see how this goes, I just find it so odd that he is doing this badly. This race should be much closer.

[Lunar]

I love Deed's new radio ad:


MALE VO: That’s why I’m voting for Creigh Deeds.

FEMALE VO: That underdog guy?

MALE VO: Mmm-hmm … the state senator who partnered with Mark Warner to reform our budget and protect our schools.

FEMALE VO: Yeah I saw on his website he wants tax cuts for any business that creates just one new job. And I love his idea for auditing ALL government spending.

MALE VO: Common sense leader... Pro-business...

FEMALE VO: Creigh Deeds: a little more Mark Warner and a LOT less George Bush.

MALE VO: Sounds like a Governor on OUR side.

[War on Want]

I love Deed's new radio ad:


MALE VO: That’s why I’m voting for Creigh Deeds.

FEMALE VO: That underdog guy?

MALE VO: Mmm-hmm … the state senator who partnered with Mark Warner to reform our budget and protect our schools.

FEMALE VO: Yeah I saw on his website he wants tax cuts for any business that creates just one new job. And I love his idea for auditing ALL government spending.

MALE VO: Common sense leader... Pro-business...

FEMALE VO: Creigh Deeds: a little more Mark Warner and a LOT less George Bush.

MALE VO: Sounds like a Governor on OUR side.

They need to make this a tv ad.

[Ronnie]

I love Deed's new radio ad:


MALE VO: That’s why I’m voting for Creigh Deeds.

FEMALE VO: That underdog guy?

MALE VO: Mmm-hmm … the state senator who partnered with Mark Warner to reform our budget and protect our schools.

FEMALE VO: Yeah I saw on his website he wants tax cuts for any business that creates just one new job. And I love his idea for auditing ALL government spending.

MALE VO: Common sense leader... Pro-business...

FEMALE VO: Creigh Deeds: a little more Mark Warner and a LOT less George Bush.

MALE VO: Sounds like a Governor on OUR side.

You can listen to it here:

http://vodpod.com/watch/2111236-another-deeds-radio-ad-grass-stains

[Tender Branson]

PPP is in the field in VA right now and says that Deeds is polling a bit better so far compared with their poll last month, but is still down by a considerable margin.

FYI: Their last poll was Deeds-14.

[Ronnie]

I predict their next poll, then, has Deeds-9.

[Nhoj]

I predict their next poll, then, has Deeds-9.

Yeah thats about what im thinking too.

[Psychic Octopus]

Deeds is starting not to sound bad...


Is Mark Warner revered as a god in Virginia?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Deeds is starting not to sound bad...


Is Mark Warner revered as a god in Virginia?

He is by far the most popular politician in Virginia. Pretty much everyone outside of the Republican base (you know, the 35% or so that voted Gilmore) likes him.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Is Mark Warner revered as a god in Virginia?

He's extremely popular, although not as popular as he is on the Forum, of course.

[pogo stick]

My prediction

McDonnell (R) : 53%
Deeds (D) : 47%

[Rowan]

My prediction

McDonnell (R) : 53%
Deeds (D) : 47%

No one cares.

[Eraserhead]

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/3656333311

[Rowan]

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/3656333311

Yeah, I saw that. Not sure if it means anything though. Only 80-100 interviews, so it's hard to tell whether the story mattered much, or this was just a Deeds sample.

[War on Want]

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/3656333311

Great news.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/3656333311