Virginia 2009 Megathread

[Lunar]

That's not necessarily how momentum works.

Terry has the best field organization, so this race is still unpredictable.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Terry has the best field organization

Based off the absentee numbers, Terry's organization isn't helping him one little bit.`

[Lunar]

Assuming his organization is focused on absentees.


Ben, you said you'd cut back on trying to mimic Winfield.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Assuming his organization is focused on absentees.

I doubt that it is; I'm merely saying that absentee numbers seem to show a race with low turnout.  One has to figure that if McAuliffe has such a strong organization, there would be more absentees than this.

Ben, you said you'd cut back on trying to mimic Winfield.

At least I'm working with numbers, something Winfield rarely does.

[Lunar]

Low enough turnout and Creigh might have an outside chance of winning this thing.

  Creigh Deeds winning the primary will be one of the proudest moments in my recent memory.

When's the primary again?

Creigh Deeds will be nominated on June 9.

Anyway,

Well, when multiple people who are rooting for the same guy as you are finding it coming off way too heavy, it's a good sign to cut back.  I'm not the only person to reference you to Winfield lately.  It's not really working with numbers to go "omg that poll shows Terry winning churchgoers it's WRONG!!"


Anyway, where is Deed's momentum coming from?  NoVa undecideds?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Anyway, where is Deed's momentum coming from?  NoVa undecideds?

That would be my guess; voters who were undecided and finally persuaded by the WaPo endorsement.  I've met quite a few NOVA voters who were undecided, but are now supporting Deeds because of the WaPo.

[Lunar]

Well, I'm skeptical of how many people read the WaPo's endorsement page, but Deeds is certainly not sparing any expenses to run ads reminding people of the endorsement in the expensive DC media market.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-Ra-kd7uk

[Holmes]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1r9tv6iM90U

Replace "attorney general" with "governor"

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Deeds is really pumping the endorsement.  Everything I've seen in NOVA mentions it, and his yard signs have Washington Post in letters almost as large as DEEDS.

[Holmes]

North Virginia loves their Washington Post?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

North Virginia loves their Washington Post?

Big time.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Low enough turnout and Creigh might have an outside chance of winning this thing.

  Creigh Deeds winning the primary will be one of the proudest moments in my recent memory.

When's the primary again?

Creigh Deeds will be nominated on June 9.

Anyway,

Well, when multiple people who are rooting for the same guy as you are finding it coming off way too heavy, it's a good sign to cut back.  I'm not the only person to reference you to Winfield lately.  It's not really working with numbers to go "omg that poll shows Terry winning churchgoers it's WRONG!!"


Anyway, where is Deed's momentum coming from?  NoVa undecideds?

Looking at the area code crosstabs from the last two PPP polls, his support increased most significantly in the NoVa 703 area code (11% to 23%) and in the Southside 434 area code (30% to 43%). He increased by smaller margins in the extreme tip of SWVA 276 (15% to 22%), Shenandoah/NoVa exurbs 540 (31% to 35%) and Hampton Roads 757 (19% to 25%). He actually lost support in the Richmond-area 804 (24% to 21%). Some of his support looks to have been leeched from McAuliffe, especially in the 434, but it could also be undecideds moving around.

[Eraserhead]

Deeds is really deedsing his deeds. Deeds needs to deed his deeds in order to Deeds though. Just saying.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Deeds is really deedsing his deeds. Deeds needs to deed his deeds in order to Deeds though. Just saying.

Agreed.

[Eraserhead]

I'm starting the finals predictions thread after the PPP poll comes out.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Deeds' momentum is coming from Anybody But McAuliffe voters.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Deeds' momentum is coming from Anybody But McAuliffe voters.

Possibly.  Moran has stayed steady, though, which leads me to believe it is mostly undecideds who are breaking for Deeds.

[Eraserhead]

I think the Suffolk poll said that undecideds were breaking for McAuliffe and Moran. But that was, well, Suffolk.

[Senator Robert A. Taft]

As a Republican, I want McAuliffe to win.  In the end, though, I think Creigh Deeds will win the nomination.  He seems to have all of the momentum at this point, and that matters a lot.

[Lunar]

As a Republican, I want McAuliffe to win.  In the end, though, I think Creigh Deeds will win the nomination.  He seems to have all of the momentum at this point, and that matters a lot.

"momentum" matters a hell of a lot more when it comes to a presidential primary with a high amount of news volume and a high number of candidates since it determines who the media will cover and treat seriously as well as driving voters away from losers towards their plan B or C choices when confronted with physical losses.  I imagine that this effect would be muted for a low-profile off-year neck-n-neck VA Gov primary.

It matters, but maybe less though that we would think, at least in my opinion

[Rowan]

PPP:

Deeds 40%
McAuliffe 26%
Moran 24%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_6074983.pdf

Ben just creamed his pants.

[Eraserhead]

Well, unless PPP has a PA primary style f ckup, it's over.

[Lunar]

Wow.

PPP would have to be pretty far off for anyone but Deeds to win now.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Damn. Just... damn.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Wow.  This is pretty fantastic, to say the least.  I don't see how Deeds loses at this point.