at what would you put Al Franken's current chances of victory?

[Ronnie]

I kind of feel bad for Coleman.  There's nothing he can do about this, and doesn't have enough recount efforts.

[NOVA Green]

If I was a betting man (ha, ha), I'd put Franken's chances around 45%.  Maybe a tad lower.

Coleman has the pocket pair.  Franken with the two over cards.  headed to the flop.

Are Franken's cards suited or connectors? This could change the percentages by at least a few points.

[Sam Spade]

Once my computer starts liking the MN SOS website again, I'll put out a spreadsheet on the audit results (which uses the same basic process as the official hand recount will).

I should note that, from the 10 or so counties I've already done, that nearly all (like 95%-97%) of the undervotes (i.e. blank) are actually undervotes.  We'll see if these numbers continue when I'm through.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The number of undervotes is actually lower than what I would expect for a race with two candidates with high negatives like Coleman and Franken.  I still say the edge is with Coleman, but very very narrowly.

[Sam Spade]

I'm still not done with reviewing the audit given to me here, but apparently the last voter audit, and the one that will be presented to the State Canvassing Board for a recount this afternoon, will have Coleman up by 215 votes.

Franken is making a number of maneuvers, obviously

The first is asking the Canvassing Board to consider including improperly rejected absentee ballots in today's official tally.  Naturally, the Attorney General will tell him that this is the court's job, not the administrative board's job, as the first article states.

Second, a few minutes ago, Franken is saying that the initial count of votes is incomplete and is asking the board to postpone finalizing the count until all precincts are accounted for.  According to the second article, this addresses "incomplete vote counts in at least 49 counties." The Board should rule on this motion this afternoon, which will tell us when the recount will begin.

Links:

http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/34607244.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUnciaec8O7EyUsr

http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/34685909.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiUs

[Sam Spade]

From MN SOS:  Recount begins tomorrow.  Coleman margin at 215 votes.

[Keystone Phil]

From MN SOS:  Recount begins tomorrow.  Coleman margin at 215 votes.

Awesome sign. That's my area code! 

[Verily]

The number of undervotes is actually lower than what I would expect for a race with two candidates with high negatives like Coleman and Franken.  I still say the edge is with Coleman, but very very narrowly.

Because those who would have otherwise undervoted went with Barkley instead.

[Psychic Octopus]

60%

[Sam Spade]

Preliminary points on the audit (which will have to be amended because I'm going based on memory):

Roughly about 200 precincts were audited.  In general, these precincts will skew rural over suburban and urban precincts.  For example, a county with 20 precincts gets two precincts counted, whereas Hennepin gets 13 precincts counted out of 426.

Interestingly, the skew is not that pro-GOP.  128,000 votes were counted.  55,000 went to Coleman, 52,000 went to Franken; 20,000 went to Barkley; 1,000 went to Other.  1,000 were blank.  This equates to roughly a 42.97% C, 40.63% F, 15.63% B, 1.28% O setup.

Overall, Franken gained 16 votes, Coleman gained 25 votes, Barkley gained 14 votes.  This results in the Coleman +9 result that increased his end margin to 215 votes.

However, nearly all of the changes occurred from three precincts - two in St. Louis and 1 in Sherburne.  From the two precincts in St. Louis, Franken gained 17 votes, Coleman gained 13 votes.  In Sherburne (anti-BRTD land), Coleman gained 11 and Franken lost 2.  Other than that, they only gained one vote sum in the rest of counties (they both lost one vote each total in Hennepin and Ramsey).  Barkley generally gained the most from the rural precincts.

Blank votes, as noted before, were more than 95% blank.  I expect challenges here that may increase this number slightly, but I don't expect the rest to change very much from this number.  For example, in Hennepin they counted slightly over 100 blank votes.  In the end, 2 votes turned into actual votes.

More later...

[Sam Spade]

A news item that is informative:

An analysis of the schedule of recounts.  Basically, Hennepin, Ramsey and St. Louis start today.  The anti-BRTD suburbs will be some of the last ones to start counting. 

I will repeat this many times, but, ignoring for a second the Franken attempts to get disqualified absentees counted, whether they succeed or not, Franken pretty much needs to make up most of his gap or go ahead based on these three counties in order to have a legitimate shot (unless more ballots are added, as mentioned above)

http://www.startribune.com/local/34751269.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiUs

[MarkWarner08]

Potentially important legal victory for Franken:

"The Al Franken for Senate campaign is entitled to get access to the names and addresses of voters whose absentee ballots were rejected, a Ramsey County judge has ruled.

Judge Dale Lindman submitted his order after a hearing this morning in which attorneys for Franken and Ramsey County argued on the matter.

Ramsey County must turn over the “existing written information regarding the reason for accepting or rejecting an absentee ballot,” Lindman wrote. But, he said, under the Minnesota Government Data Practices Act, “(Franken) is not entitled to orally query election officials regarding their reasoning” for rejecting the ballots unless that reasoning has been reduced to written form."
http://www.twincities.com/politics/ci_11022326?nclick_check=1

[Sam Spade]

Senate recount numbers by City/County...

http://ww2.startribune.com/news/metro/elections/returns/2008/recount/msenco.html

http://ww2.startribune.com/news/metro/elections/returns/2008/recount/msenci.html

So far, Franken has lost 39 votes and is challenging 45 ballots.  Coleman has lost 30 votes and is challenging 50 ballots.

5% of precincts in.  4% of votes in.

[Ronnie]

This is exciting!

[Хahar 🤔]

This is exciting!

Indeed. Winning is fun!

[Franzl]

27% of precincts, 18% of the total vote recounted:

Coleman only ahead by 174.

[Eraserhead]

I still say they should hold a re-vote.

[emailking]

If you just hold a revote when it's super-close, doesn't that pretty much confirm how many people feel for big elections, that one vote doesn't matter?

[opebo]

This is exciting!

Indeed. Winning is fun!

What reason is there for confidence, Xahar?

[Хahar 🤔]

This is exciting!

Indeed. Winning is fun!

What reason is there for confidence, Xahar?

We have reservations.

[Eraserhead]

If you just hold a revote when it's super-close, doesn't that pretty much confirm how many people feel for big elections, that one vote doesn't matter?

One vote doesn't matter, obviously.

[emailking]

If you just hold a revote when it's super-close, doesn't that pretty much confirm how many people feel for big elections, that one vote doesn't matter?

One vote doesn't matter, obviously.

Is that the right message to send though? I don't think so. Turnout will be depressed significantly if revote becomes the norm for a close election.

[© tweed]

If you just hold a revote when it's super-close, doesn't that pretty much confirm how many people feel for big elections, that one vote doesn't matter?

One vote doesn't matter, obviously.

Is that the right message to send though? I don't think so. Turnout will be depressed significantly if revote becomes the norm for a close election.

so lying is the best message to send?

[Flying Dog]

47.17%

[emailking]

If you just hold a revote when it's super-close, doesn't that pretty much confirm how many people feel for big elections, that one vote doesn't matter?

One vote doesn't matter, obviously.

Is that the right message to send though? I don't think so. Turnout will be depressed significantly if revote becomes the norm for a close election.

so lying is the best message to send?

Nobody's lying. Right now, if you vote, there is a longshot chance your vote can matter on its own. Knowing this motivates many people to vote. If any close election is automatically recounted, your vote has a 0% chance of mattering on its own.