at what would you put Al Franken's current chances of victory?

[Brittain33]

Is there still a slug of uncounted ballots in Hennepin County coming out "any minute now," or what? Did that get pushed off to the recount phase?

[Torie]

Is there still a slug of uncounted ballots in Hennepin County coming out "any minute now," or what? Did that get pushed off to the recount phase?

I think it is a process of verifying the addition was correct with the existing count, and that digits were not transposed etc. I don't think there are a slug of ballots out there to count in Minnesota. The recount is more to determine if the machines read the ballots correctly, and maybe look at over and under votes and so forth.

[7,052,770]

2) The other side has done what I'm advocating before and will do it again. See: Florida 2000 or Ohio 2004 or Georgia and Florida (if not for Crist) this year.

Don't forget Alabama 2002, which was much shadier than Washington 2004.

[Eraserhead]

They should just call for a re-vote at this point. It would give us something to look forward to.

[Franzl]

can we please stop this...I already imagined that this would lead to a battle over dirty election tricks....

[Хahar 🤔]

They should just call for a re-vote at this point. It would give us something to look forward to.

But Franken might lose that.

[??????????]

2) The other side has done what I'm advocating before and will do it again. See: Florida 2000 or Ohio 2004 or Georgia and Florida (if not for Crist) this year.

Don't forget Alabama 2002, which was much shadier than Washington 2004.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'm really kind of depressed by the turn this thread has taken.

[Sam Spade]

Is there still a slug of uncounted ballots in Hennepin County coming out "any minute now," or what? Did that get pushed off to the recount phase?

I think it is a process of verifying the addition was correct with the existing count, and that digits were not transposed etc. I don't think there are a slug of ballots out there to count in Minnesota. The recount is more to determine if the machines read the ballots correctly, and maybe look at over and under votes and so forth.

Basically, this is correct.  Any changes that have happened before now (even the questionable Iron Range ones) have everything to do with retabulating the numbers and the recanvassing of votes.

When we get to the recount, we'll basically get 1) a more thorough recanvassing; 2) examination of the undervotes (about 25,000) to see if the scanner missed something.

[Lief 🗽]

So did Hennepin never update? Or was there just no change in Hennepin?

[minionofmidas]

So did Hennepin never update? Or was there just no change in Hennepin?

I would assume that they found everything to have been correct.

[Gustaf]

The Republicans would appoint a majority Republican Canvassing Board without blinking an eye if they were in charge of this recount. The fact that Democrats won't do the same out some sort of misplaced sense of "fairness" is one of the most annoying things about the party.

I couldn't agree more. We screw ourselves over time and time again because we want to take the high road and appear to be the good guys.

Rigging an election is totally cool because the other guys would do it if they could.

That's the most retarded thing I've heard in a long time.

1) I'm not advocating that the election be rigged.
2) The other side has done what I'm advocating before and will do it again. See: Florida 2000 or Ohio 2004 or Georgia and Florida (if not for Crist) this year.
3) It doesn't make sense to tie our hands behind our back and not use our advantages to the fullest to win as many seats as possible to enact as much of our policy as possible. The goal of politics is winning. It's not about being fair or nice or making sure everyone feels good.

Good to know that you don't think Florida 2000 was stolen.

[© tweed]

Franken takes the lead on Intrade, 56.5-44.7

[Sarnstrom]

The margin is now down to 200 votes.

[Mr.Phips]

The margin is now down to 200 votes.

Where are you getting this?

[Verily]

Not sure.

MN SoS Results Page

Still shows 206.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Not sure.

MN SoS Results Page

Still shows 206.

Yeah, well they didn't show it. Franken gained 18 and Coleman gained 12.

[Sam Spade]

Neither SOS, nor CNN nor Star Tribune, or anyone else I can find has changed the numbers from 206 votes.  Anyone have a link?

Btw, results must be certified by law by tomorrow.  Then will come the recount.

[Sarnstrom]

Update: It's now 204 votes.

http://www.tcdailyplanet.net/article/2008/11/15/franken-closes-gap-200-votes.html

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

And this 204 seems final, at least so far as the initial count goes.

[Alcon]

And this 204 seems final, at least so far as the initial count goes.

"The hand count audits were only of 3 to 5 precincts in any given county and are done after every election in Minnesota to check the accuracy of the voting machines."

That is obviously going to turn in more GOP results, because every county essentially got equal representation in the count.  Especially in Minnesota, with a township precinct system, that's still significant.  Still not an especially hot result for Franken.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If I was a betting man (ha, ha), I'd put Franken's chances around 45%.  Maybe a tad lower.

[© tweed]

If I was a betting man (ha, ha), I'd put Franken's chances around 45%.  Maybe a tad lower.

Coleman has the pocket pair.  Franken with the two over cards.  headed to the flop.

[Lunar]

This paper makes a compelling argument that Franken is favored:
http://www.dartmouth.edu/~herron/mn.pdf

[© tweed]

Intrade makes Franken basically a 3:2 favorite