Alcon's all-purpose EARLY VOTING & REGISTRATION thread

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

As I posted in a separate thread, WBAA radio, in its 12 PM news break today (10/29) reported that more than 20,000 early votes had been cast so far in Tippecanoe County. 

This county went 59% Bush in 2004, but out of only 52,000 total votes cast.  This county is notable for being the home of Purdue University in West Lafayette, and major Subaru and Caterpillar plants in Lafayette.

[ucscgaldamez]

Is this good news for whom?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Is this good news for whom?

For Democracy .

I would think very good news for Obama's chances in Indiana.  If he's going to steal this state, it's going to be through dedicated, motivated supporters, and those sorts of voters are likely to take advantage of early voting.

Of course, there could be a lot of dedicated, motivated McCain supporters.  I still feel Obama has a decent (>25%) chance of winning Indiana.

[ucscgaldamez]

You voted for McCain or Obama?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

You voted for McCain or Obama?

I voted for Obama, though it was more a vote against McCain and to stop the foreign policy madness of the neoconservatives.  I'm not particularly happy with Obama, but if McCain wins, at least I can sleep knowing that I'm not responsible for what the neocons are doing to the world.  My 2004 vote for Bush hangs heavily around my neck.  At the time I thought there really were WMDs, that we'd be out of Iraq in a year or two, that democracies would flower in Afghanistan and Iraq...

All seems so silly now.

[Alcon]

Poll shows Obama +2 among early NV voters

http://www.lvrj.com/news/33433079.html

With the party breakdown of those who've actually voted, I'm kinda skeptical of that.

[Lunar]

Poll shows Obama +2 among early NV voters

http://www.lvrj.com/news/33433079.html

With the party breakdown of those who've actually voted, I'm kinda skeptical of that.

I'm kinda more than kinda skeptical of that.

[Sam Spade]

Going to post a daily Texas early voting tracker table when I get down to it.

The trends that mentioned earlier are still pretty apparent in the numbers, just as an opening remark.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Dems get a bump in Florida in last night's results.

Party 
Dem 45.4%
Rep 39.0%
No/Oth 15.6%

Ballot 
Absentee 45.4%
In-person 54.6%

The early vote numbers are up to almost 2.6 million at this point.

[Speed of Sound]

Sorry, I really can't crunch this to get a feel for the trend.....are the numbers so far a good thing for Obama or McCain?

[TheresNoMoney]

Poll shows Obama +2 among early NV voters

http://www.lvrj.com/news/33433079.html

With the party breakdown of those who've actually voted, I'm kinda skeptical of that.

I'm kinda more than kinda skeptical of that.

If you look at the actual vote breakdown thus far, he's probably up by a lot more than that.

[J. J.]

Here is the current NC early voter profile:

    2008     2004
Party
      
Dem
   54.0%    48.6%
Rep
   28.6%    37.4%
None
   17.4%    14.1%
Age
      
18-29
   12.3%    
30-44
   20.7%    
45-64
   41.7%    
65+
   25.3%    
Race
      
White
   68.4%    
Black
   27.6%    
Other
   3.9%    
Sex
      
Men
   42.8%    42.9%
Women
   56.3%    56.6%
Unk
   0.2%    0.4%
Ballot
      
Absentee
   8.9%    13.1%
One-Stop
   91.1%    86.9%
   

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

One thing that strikes me is that the numbers for young voters are not hugely great.  Black turnout is higher than the demographic would indicate.

[CultureKing]

Here is the current NC early voter profile:

    2008     2004
Party
      
Dem
   54.0%    48.6%
Rep
   28.6%    37.4%
None
   17.4%    14.1%
Age
      
18-29
   12.3%    
30-44
   20.7%    
45-64
   41.7%    
65+
   25.3%    
Race
      
White
   68.4%    
Black
   27.6%    
Other
   3.9%    
Sex
      
Men
   42.8%    42.9%
Women
   56.3%    56.6%
Unk
   0.2%    0.4%
Ballot
      
Absentee
   8.9%    13.1%
One-Stop
   91.1%    86.9%
   

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

One thing that strikes me is that the numbers for young voters are not hugely great.  Black turnout is higher than the demographic would indicate.

Young voters are more likely to procrastinate in voting.

[Lunar]

Also, early voting locations aren't always nearly as accessible, as I roughly understand it, as actual voting locations.  So Obama has some shuttles in Florida to cart voters from their colleges to early voting locations, but the non-shuttle-goers will just wait until election day...

[Torie]

You know, who but the sans culotte would wait in line for 2 hours to vote early? Time is money, unless your time is not money.  Please, it's insane!

[Verily]

Dems get a bump in Florida in last night's results.

Party 
Dem 45.4%
Rep 39.0%
No/Oth 15.6%

Ballot 
Absentee 45.4%
In-person 54.6%

The early vote numbers are up to almost 2.6 million at this point.

It's not a bump for Obama, precisely, as it is the end of the inflow of absentee ballots. Absentees were forming the majority of early votes in Florida for a while, and they split very strongly Republican in Florida for whatever reason. (Absentee votes are generally Republican almost everywhere, but in Florida it reaches a surprising intensity.) But, since all of the absentee ballots were mailed out a while ago, most have now been returned, and the share of absentee ballots as a percentage of the overall early vote will continue to decline (and, with it, Democratic ID among early ballots will continue to rise).

[Sam Spade]

Texas Early Voting Tracker (2 days left)

Harris
October 28: 29.04% of RV (563,446)
Total Early (2004) 22.55% of RV (436,896)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 40.91%

Dallas
October 28: 32.54% of RV (393,142)
Total Early (2004) 28.16% of RV (346,729)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 50.42%

Tarrant
October 28: 36.88% of RV (353,829)
Total Early (2004) 33.27% of RV (305,666)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 54.57%

Bexar
October 28: 34.07% of RV (317,198)
Total Early (2004) 30.25% of RV (274,786)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 57.81%

Travis
October 28: 37.64% of RV (229,324)
Total Early (2004) 37.17% of RV (217,428)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 61.75%

Collin (55,116 - 14.92% since 2004)
October 28: 39.77% of RV (168,855)
Total Early (2004) 36.25% of RV (116,632)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 47.27%

El Paso (+17,687 - 4.76% since 2004)
October 28: 22.44% of RV (87,218)
Total Early (2004) 25.93% of RV (96,420)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 56.86%

Denton (+36,825 - 11.45% since 2004)
October 28: 36.15% of RV (129,616)
Total Early (2004) 36.25% of RV (116,632)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 55.27%

Hidalgo (+35,395 RV - 13.12% since 2004)
October 28: 21.37% of RV (65,228)
Total Early (2004) 22.90% of RV (61,970)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 54.51%

Fort Bend (+44,638 RV - 17.55% since 2004)
October 28: 40.45% of RV (120,936)
Total Early (2004) 33.01% of RV (83,965)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 51.46%

Montgomery (+27,829 RV - 13.00% since 2004)
October 28: 33.75% of RV (81,639)
Total Early (2004) 32.71% of RV (70,023)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 52.26%

Williamson (+31,633 RV - 15.79% since 2004)
October 28: 36.12% of RV (83,790)
Total Early (2004) 38.50% of RV (77,142)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 60.17%

Nueces (-2,769 RV - (1.37%) since 2004)
October 28: 25.74% of RV (51,214)
Total Early (2004) 26.29% of RV (53,031)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 50.72%

Galveston (+3,131 RV - 1.68% since 2004)
October 28: 31.76% of RV (60,041)
Total Early (2004) 34.81% of RV (64,714)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 61.06%

Cameron (not tracked in 2004)
October 28: 17.61% of RV (30,683)

[Torie]

That post blinds me. What does it mean. Does Obama have Texas wrapped up?

[Tender Branson]

Fort Bend has almost more votes cast early now than in the whole 2000 General Election.

[Ronnie]

That post blinds me. What does it mean. Does Obama have Texas wrapped up?

What makes you think that?  Election day didn't happen yet, and there are plenty more people to vote.

[Verily]

That post blinds me. What does it mean. Does Obama have Texas wrapped up?

Actually, it means early voting in Texas is not all that remarkable. Which should be no huge surprise anyway; Texas has a strong early voting tradition, unlike many of the states voting early this year, and it's not a competitive state, so Obama has nothing invested in driving up early voting turnout.

Hispanic turnout is at or slightly below what it was in 2004. Early voting in the cities (except El Paso and Brownsville) will be up somewhat on 2004 but not anywhere close to by the three-to-five times we're seeing in a lot of the other early voting states.

[Josh/Devilman88]

2008 General Election Absentee Stats as of 10/29/2008 10:00pm
TOTALS:
ONESTOP 1,690,195                Total Absentee Ballots Cast: 1,847,564
CIVILIAN 148,704                    Total Registered Voters: 6,224,230
MILITARY 5,848                        Turnout: 30%
OVERSEAS 2,817

[Alcon]

Obama's youth turnout machine is predictably a little spluttery, but this is impressive:

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Source: Orlando Sentinel

[Verily]

Does any state keep track of the vote by age group? I thought the Southern states only kept track of race to comply with the VRA, and otherwise all we might get were partisan breakdowns.

[Alcon]

Does any state keep track of the vote by age group? I thought the Southern states only kept track of race to comply with the VRA, and otherwise all we might get were partisan breakdowns.

Indiana and North Carolina do, I think, and youth vote is laggy.  It definitely is in Nevada.  It always is.