InTrade Presidential odds

[Mr. Morden]

Biden passes 50% and Bayh drops to 4th:

Biden 53.0
Kaine 14.5
Sebelius 13.0
Bayh 12.1

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Democratic VP odds

Biden 49.8
Kaine 13.1
Sebelius 13.0
Bayh 12.7
H. Clinton 8.1
Clark 8.0
Richardson 6.9
Daschle 6.5
Reed 5.2
Bill Nelson 5.0
Gephardt 4.0
C. Kennedy 4.0
Kerry 3.5
Gore 3.0
Napolitano 3.0
Schweitzer 2.5
Dodd 2.5
McCaskill 2.4
Rendell 2.0
Hagel 2.0
Cohen 2.0
Graham 2.0
Nunn 2.0
Zinni 2.0
Obama 2.0
Bloomberg 1.5
Brown 1.5
Kerrey 1.0
Webb 1.0
C. Edwards 0.5
Powell 0.4

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Biden says he's not the one, drops almost 20 points
Gainers are Kaine, Bayh, Daschle
Democratic VP odds

Biden 30.1
Kaine 15.5
Bayh 15.0
Sebelius 13.0
Daschle 9.9
H. Clinton 8.1
Clark 8.0
Richardson 6.9
Reed 5.2
Bill Nelson 5.0
Gephardt 4.0
C. Kennedy 4.0
Kerry 3.5
Gore 3.0
Napolitano 3.0
Schweitzer 2.5
Dodd 2.5
McCaskill 2.4
Rendell 2.0
Hagel 2.0
Cohen 2.0
Graham 2.0
Nunn 2.0
Zinni 2.0
Obama 2.0
Bloomberg 1.5
Brown 1.5
Kerrey 1.0
Webb 1.0
C. Edwards 0.5
Powell 0.4

[Mr. Morden]

Here's what Biden said:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/08/19/1276323.aspx

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Of course, this should be taken with a pinch of salt.  Other reporting suggests that Obama hasn't informed his choice yet (in order to avoid it leaking out early).  And even if he has, the person isn't going to come out and admit it.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden rebounds, Bayh moves back up to 2nd place, and Clinton surges ahead of Kaine for 3rd place in Dem. VP odds:

Biden 40.0
Bayh 23.3
Clinton 12.0
Kaine 11.1
Sebelius 9.1
Clark 8.4
Richardson 8.4
Reed 5.0

Pawlenty passes Romney; Palin drops as Meg Whitman rises:

Pawlenty 32.8
Romney 31.4
Ridge 13.1
Portman 10.0
Crist 6.8
Meg Whitman 6.5
Lieberman 6.0
Palin 6.0
Huckabee 4.0
Jindal 3.1

[Mr. Morden]

More Joe-mentum:

Biden 49.0
Bayh 16.1
Kaine 14.9
Clark 13.2
Clinton 13.0
Sebelius 8.9
Reed 7.0
Gephardt 5.0
Lugar 5.0
Nunn 5.0

Romney now above 50%, as a rumor circulates that he's "the guy":

Romney 54.0
Pawlenty 25.9
Lieberman 10.0
Portman 10.0
Palin 9.8
Ridge 9.1
Cantor 8.6
Giuliani 7.0
Crist 6.7
Whitman 6.5

[Mr. Morden]

Biden is now all the way up to 60:

Biden 60.0
Bayh 25.0
Kaine 15.0
Sebelius 15.0

Romney has dropped a little from last night:

Romney 46.9
Pawlenty 25.0
Ridge 9.5
Cantor 8.6

[Mr. Morden]

AP story comes out saying that Chet Edwards was vetted, and suddenly he's up to 3rd place:

Biden 50.0
Bayh 20.9
Chet Edwards 19.9
Clinton 14.1
Kaine 10.1
Sebelius 10.1

[cp]

I'm surprised Clinton is still getting 14.1

[Mr. Morden]

Update:

Biden 49.8
Bayh 35.0
Clinton 10.0
C. Edwards 10.0
Gore 8.7
Clark 8.0
Kaine 7.6
Reed 7.0
Sebelius 6.0
Bill Nelson 5.0

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Biden is the probable pick. Word is that it's not Kaine or Bayh

Everyone at 2% or higher last, with a bid:

Biden 72.0
H. Clinton 14.0
Sebelius 8.0
C. Edwards 7.0
Clark 6.1
Corzine 5.0
Bill Nelson 5.0
Bayh 4.0
Schweitzer 4.0
Reed 3.3
Richardson 3.3
Dodd 3.3
Webb 2.3
Daschle 2.0
Rendell 2.0
Brown 2.0

[Mr. Morden]

Romney surges into enormous lead in GOP VP odds; Whitman now all the way up to 3rd place; Hutchison shows a pulse:

Romney 61.5
Pawlenty 22.0
M. Whitman 10.0
Crist 7.0
Giuliani 7.0
Portman 6.7
Ridge 6.1
Hutchison 4.9
Fiorina 4.2
Huckabee 4.2

[Mr. Morden]

Romney drops a little and Pawlenty gains; Cantor surges into a tie for 3rd place:

Romney 55.5
Pawlenty 28.3
Cantor 10.0
Whitman 10.0
Palin 9.5
Ridge 9.1
Crist 7.9
Lieberman 7.9
Jindal 6.0

[DownWithTheLeft]

Corzine 5.0

ROTFL and I thought Biden was a gift!

[Mr. Morden]

Someone actually bought a share of Mel Martinez to be the GOP VP nominee at a price of 4.9, even though he's constitutionally ineligible.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Romney drops a little and Pawlenty gains; Cantor surges into a tie for 3rd place:

Romney 55.5
Pawlenty 28.3
Cantor 10.0
Whitman 10.0
Palin 9.5
Ridge 9.1
Crist 7.9
Lieberman 7.9
Jindal 6.0

Palin is sharking her way up

[Mr. Morden]

Romney-Pawlenty gap grows as T-Paw drops; Lieberman's joe-mentum is sneaking up on Pawlenty; Hutchison moves up to 5th place; a second Whitman enters the top 10:

Romney 60.4
Pawlenty 16.3
Lieberman 14.9
Ridge 13.9
Hutchison 9.3
Cantor 5.8
Palin 5.8
Huckabee 5.2
M. Whitman 5.0
C. Todd-Whitman 4.9

[DownWithTheLeft]

I don't know which is more humorous, Jon Corzine at 5.0 for the Dems or Christy Whitman at 4.9 for the GOP

[TomC]

I don't know which is more humorous, Jon Corzine at 5.0 for the Dems or Christy Whitman at 4.9 for the GOP

Well, since we know who the Dem nom is, I'd say Corzine.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I don't know which is more humorous, Jon Corzine at 5.0 for the Dems or Christy Whitman at 4.9 for the GOP

Well, since we know who the Dem nom is, I'd say Corzine.

I was referencing shortly before the announcement, when people basically already knew it was Biden

[Mr. Morden]

Dem. presidential nomination odds (remember, it's not official yet....we could still discover that Obama was at a poker game with Mark Foley and Osama bin Laden some time within the next few hours)

Obama 98.3
Clinton 2.0
Gore 1.0

Dem. VP nomination odds

Biden 98.7
Gephardt 1.2
Caroline Kennedy 1.1
Napolitano 1.1
Gore 1.0
Blanche Lincoln 1.0
Sebelius 0.9

GOP presidential nomination odds

McCain 98.0
Giuliani 1.1
Paul 1.0
Rice 0.6
Romney 0.4
Huckabee 0.3
Gingrich 0.2

[SPQR]

Come on Giuliani,yes you can!1.1!

[Mr. Morden]

Massive Kay-mentum:

Romney 40.0
Hutchison 22.0
Pawlenty 21.0
Ridge 13.1
Huckabee 10.0
M. Whitman 8.5
Lieberman 7.0
Cantor 5.7
Palin 5.0
C. Todd-Whitman 4.9

[Mr. Morden]

The Hutchison balloon deflates, but she's still tied for 3rd; Brownback jumps into the top 10:

Romney 58.0
Pawlenty 29.5
Hutchison 9.0
Lieberman 9.0
M. Whitman 6.5
Brownback 5.0
C. Todd-Whitman 4.9
Palin 4.5
Cantor 4.0
Huckabee 3.1

[DownWithTheLeft]

Why does "It's My Party Too" lead Palin and Cantor?  Not realistic IMO