InTrade Presidential odds

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Biden is easily the third most likely person to be the next President. It's the electoral college tie + hung House scenario.

The Democrats do only need 26 of their 27 state delegations to get an outright majority in the House.

[© tweed]

Biden is easily the third most likely person to be the next President. It's the electoral college tie + hung House scenario.

I think McCain dying from now - 1/20 is more likely than that.

[Dan the Roman]

Sorry, need to check the constitution more.

[Brittain33]

Biden is easily the third most likely person to be the next President. It's the electoral college tie + hung House scenario.

The Democrats do only need 26 of their 27 state delegations to get an outright majority in the House.

This group includes Tennessee, West Virginia, South Dakota, North Dakota, North Carolina, Arkansas, Mississippi... while some of those delegations are likely to support Obama, I wouldn't want to place bets that no more than one of Lincoln Davis, Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, Heath Shuler, Gene Taylor, and Travis Childers decides not to vote against the large majority of his state and possibly his district.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Barack Obama is now back up to 57 on Intrade—a significant rebound, but still well off from his highs.

[On a personal note, I sold off McCain a while ago when he was above 50 and I've been increasingly buying shares of Obama over the last few days (average price, 53.6).]


And just for fun, the rest of my Intrade portfolio:

+21 x 2008.Pres.OBAMA (bought @ 53.6)
+1 x NC.GOV08.REP (bought @ 50)
+7 x CO.SENATE08.REP (bought @ 27)
–30 x NH.SENATE08.DEM (bought @ 71.9)
+10 x NH.SENATE08.REP (bought @ 30.2)
–2 x NJ.SENATE08.DEM (bought @ 84)
+2 x NJ.SENATE08.REP (bought @ 16)
–5 x NC.SENATE08.DEM (bought @ 50)
–5 x NEVADA.DEM (bought @ 53)
+4 x OREGON.REP (bought @ 17.5)
+1 x VIRGINIA.REP (bought @ 47.0)
Cash, $7.95

[© tweed]

Biden is easily the third most likely person to be the next President. It's the electoral college tie + hung House scenario.

The Democrats do only need 26 of their 27 state delegations to get an outright majority in the House.

This group includes Tennessee, West Virginia, South Dakota, North Dakota, North Carolina, Arkansas, Mississippi... while some of those delegations are likely to support Obama, I wouldn't want to place bets that no more than one of Lincoln Davis, Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, Heath Shuler, Gene Taylor, and Travis Childers decides not to vote against the large majority of his state and possibly his district.

don't forget the Dems are likely to net around ten seats in the upcoming House elections.  I haven't analyzed how that impacts the state delegations, but it isn't going to hurt.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The only likely flip I see is New Mexico. Maybe Nevada.

[Brittain33]

don't forget the Dems are likely to net around ten seats in the upcoming House elections.  I haven't analyzed how that impacts the state delegations, but it isn't going to hurt.

Larry Kissell would be a vote for Obama and solidify the NC delegation against a Shuler defection.

Ohio could be a tie, Republican-led, or Democrat-led depending on OH-15 and OH-1, as I assume OH-16 goes Democratic.

N.H. could flip back to a tie, with the Republican rep. representing a district that voted for McCain.

Arizona goes from a tie to Democratic.

Alaska likely flips to Democratic with a conflicted rep.

Kansas could go from split to Republican.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

States by Democratic odds
All states that are 11-89%.

Maine 89
Washington 88
Oregon 85
Iowa 85
Wisconsin 80
Michigan 80
New Mexico 80
Minnesota 78
Pennsylvania 75
Colorado 70 CRITICAL FOR OBAMA TYING THE ELECTORAL VOTE
New Hampshire 60 CRITICAL FOR OBAMA GETTING A MAJORITY OF THE ELECTORAL VOTE
Virginia 54
Nevada 53
Ohio 52
Florida 46
North Carolina 40
Indiana 39
Missouri 35
Montana 20
West Virginia 20