InTrade Presidential odds

[DownWithTheLeft]

Zinni?  Who the hell is that?

[MarkWarner08]

Buy Biden; sell Edwards.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Zinni?  Who the hell is that?

     According to this, he's a retired marine general. The story is from 2004, but I think this is the guy. I have no clue why Obama would want to pick him, but I guess they have to speculate about someone.

[Mr. Morden]

Zinni?  Who the hell is that?

Retired general and former special envoy to the Middle East.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zinni

Yes, Zinni's name has been mentioned in the past as a possible Obama running mate....but not so much of late.

[Mr. Morden]

Bayh passes Kaine; Lee Hamilton now in 6th place in the Dem. VP odds?:

Bayh 33.0
Kaine 22.7
Sebelius 15.3
Biden 9.5
Clinton 5.9
Lee Hamilton 5.0
Nunn 4.0
Reed 4.0
Zinni 4.0
Rendell 3.5

Pawlenty drops way behind Romney; Cantor moves all the way up to 3rd place:

Romney 35.0
Pawlenty 15.2
Cantor 15.0
Palin 12.0
Crist 10.0
Ridge 5.0
Giuliani 4.6
Huckabee 4.4
Jindal 4.1
Portman 4.0

[Mr. Morden]

Bayh's lead grows; Clark and Chet Edwards surge:

Bayh 39.9
Kaine 20.0
Sebelius 14.1
Biden 10.5
Clark 9.9
Clinton 5.9
Chet Edwards 5.0
Gephardt 5.0
Hamilton 5.0
Schweitzer 4.5

Pawlenty, Ridge, and Giuliani gain on the GOP side:

Romney 35.0
Pawlenty 24.0
Cantor 13.8
Palin 12.0
Crist 10.0
Ridge 10.0
Giuliani 8.0
Jindal 5.0
Huckabee 4.3
Portman 4.0

[Mr. Morden]

And just now, weirdly, Clark surges further and Sebelius crashes:

Bayh 41.9
Kaine 20.0
Clark 14.9
Biden 10.5
Clinton 5.9
Sebelius 5.1

[Mr. Morden]

Bayh drops hard, but still leads; Clark drops; Clinton, Gephardt, and Hagel gain:

Bayh 27.5
Kaine 16.2
Sebelius 15.0
Biden 11.0
Clinton 8.8
Gephardt 8.6
Hagel 6.0
Clark 5.1
Schweitzer 4.0
Rendell 3.5

Romney, Pawlenty, and Crist drop; Ridge gains:

Romney 30.0
Pawlenty 20.0
Ridge 15.0
Palin 14.0
Cantor 11.0
Crist 6.0
Jindal 5.2
Giuliani 5.0
Huckabee 4.0
Portman 4.0

[Jacobtm]

Whoever is betting in this market is just begging to lose money, there is nothing to base your judgement on but contradictory rumors and the same type of "conventional thinking" that's gotten us nowhere as far as predictions go this cycle.

[Beet]

Whoever is betting in this market is just begging to lose money, there is nothing to base your judgement on but contradictory rumors and the same type of "conventional thinking" that's gotten us nowhere as far as predictions go this cycle.

About half the people will lose money and the other half will make 90% of what was lost. But yeah, it's really no better than gambling.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Whoever is betting in this market is just begging to lose money, there is nothing to base your judgement on but contradictory rumors and the same type of "conventional thinking" that's gotten us nowhere as far as predictions go this cycle.

About half the people will lose money and the other half will make 90% of what was lost. But yeah, it's really no better than gambling.

It IS gambling. So what?

[elcorazon]

Whoever is betting in this market is just begging to lose money, there is nothing to base your judgement on but contradictory rumors and the same type of "conventional thinking" that's gotten us nowhere as far as predictions go this cycle.

About half the people will lose money and the other half will make 90% of what was lost. But yeah, it's really no better than gambling.

It IS gambling. So what?

the stock market is also gambling.  And brokers and others who profit from other's investments are no different from casinos or bookies, imo.  not that there's anything wrong with that.

I do hate the lottery though.

[Jacobtm]

Whoever is betting in this market is just begging to lose money, there is nothing to base your judgement on but contradictory rumors and the same type of "conventional thinking" that's gotten us nowhere as far as predictions go this cycle.

About half the people will lose money and the other half will make 90% of what was lost. But yeah, it's really no better than gambling.

That's only in the case of a one-or-the-other type race. The majority of the people betting in the Vice Presidential market will lose money, only the small % that had the random luck to pick the right option will make tons of money.

[Mr. Morden]

Whoever is betting in this market is just begging to lose money, there is nothing to base your judgement on but contradictory rumors and the same type of "conventional thinking" that's gotten us nowhere as far as predictions go this cycle.

About half the people will lose money and the other half will make 90% of what was lost. But yeah, it's really no better than gambling.

That's only in the case of a one-or-the-other type race. The majority of the people betting in the Vice Presidential market will lose money, only the small % that had the random luck to pick the right option will make tons of money.

You do understand how Intrade works?  That on every single contract, there's someone betting on a particular candidate being the VP nominee, and another person betting *against* that same candidate being the nominee?

[Verily]

Whoever is betting in this market is just begging to lose money, there is nothing to base your judgement on but contradictory rumors and the same type of "conventional thinking" that's gotten us nowhere as far as predictions go this cycle.

About half the people will lose money and the other half will make 90% of what was lost. But yeah, it's really no better than gambling.

That's only in the case of a one-or-the-other type race. The majority of the people betting in the Vice Presidential market will lose money, only the small % that had the random luck to pick the right option will make tons of money.

You do understand how Intrade works?  That on every single contract, there's someone betting on a particular candidate being the VP nominee, and another person betting *against* that same candidate being the nominee?

He is right in another way, though. There may (and, in fact, probably is) a disproportionately small number of people making money. A small group of people will be correct most of the time because they know and understand what's going on (and are therefore likely to be trading more often). Most people will be wrong most of the time because they don't understand what's going on.

An equal number of trades will come out good and bad, but it is likely that far fewer people will gain than lose.

[Jacobtm]

Whoever is betting in this market is just begging to lose money, there is nothing to base your judgement on but contradictory rumors and the same type of "conventional thinking" that's gotten us nowhere as far as predictions go this cycle.

About half the people will lose money and the other half will make 90% of what was lost. But yeah, it's really no better than gambling.

That's only in the case of a one-or-the-other type race. The majority of the people betting in the Vice Presidential market will lose money, only the small % that had the random luck to pick the right option will make tons of money.

You do understand how Intrade works?  That on every single contract, there's someone betting on a particular candidate being the VP nominee, and another person betting *against* that same candidate being the nominee?

Yes, and the people doing the betting against are likely the ones making the money. There are probably a few people out there betting against nearly all the VP candidates in large amounts, so as to hedge their bets, while there are lots of people making purchasing a small amount of their favorite candidate.

That's why Intrade provides such heavy margins for those who are detached, there are people who foolishly bet money on the people who they wish would win, or would like to see win, people who have just a small amount of money on intrade and dedicate a small amount of time to it. Those are the people who're taken be the few savvy people who have thousands and thousands of dollars on Intrade.

[Mr. Morden]

Gephardt drops off the map, and little else happens on the Dem. side:

Bayh 28.0
Kaine 16.0
Sebelius 14.5
Biden 11.5
Clinton 6.1
Schweitzer 5.5
Clark 5.0
Hagel 5.0
Rendell 3.5
Zinni 3.5

Ridge and Cantor drop; Crist and Lieberman gain on the GOP side:

Romney 30.0
Pawlenty 21.0
Palin 12.5
Ridge 10.0
Crist 9.7
Lieberman 7.6
Cantor 7.2
Jindal 5.2
Giuliani 5.0

[Mr. Morden]

Bayh-mentum and Gep-mentum:

Bayh 35.0
Kaine 19.0
Sebelius 12.1
Gephardt 12.0
Biden 11.9
Clinton 6.5
Schweitzer 5.5
Hagel 5.2
Clark 5.0
Richardson 4.0

Ridge-mentum:

Romney 30.0
Pawlenty 22.0
Ridge 17.5
Palin 12.0
Lieberman 7.6
Cantor 7.2
Crist 5.2
Jindal 5.2
Giuliani 5.0

[Mr. Morden]

Clark rebounds and Gephardt drops:

Bayh 32.0
Kaine 18.0
Sebelius 16.3
Clark 15.0
Biden 12.4
Hagel 8.2
Clinton 6.4
Gephardt 5.0
Reed 4.9
Schweitzer 4.5

Romney and Crist gain:

Romney 35.0
Pawlenty 24.4
Ridge 20.0
Palin 15.0
Crist 10.8
Lieberman 10.8
Cantor 7.2
Jindal 7.0
Giuliani 5.0
Portman 4.5

[Mr. Morden]

Biden surges into 2nd place while Kaine drops to 4th; Gephardt rebounds:

Bayh 31.0
Biden 17.1
Clark 13.5
Kaine 11.2
Sebelius 11.1
Gephardt 9.9
Clinton 6.8
Schweitzer 5.8
Hagel 5.1

Romney drops into a tie with Pawlenty for the top spot; Palin drops:

Pawlenty 25.0
Romney 25.0
Ridge 19.0
Lieberman 11.0
Crist 10.8
Palin 10.0
Cantor 7.2
Jindal 7.0
Giuliani 5.0
Portman 4.5

[Mr. Morden]

Joe-mentum continues as Biden narrows the gap with Bayh; Kaine moves up into a tie for 3rd with Clark; Kerry shoots up out of nowhere to 9.5:

Bayh 28.0
Biden 24.8
Clark 15.0
Kaine 15.0
Sebelius 10.0
Kerry 9.5
Gephardt 8.9
Clinton 8.0
Hagel 5.1
Gore 4.9

Romney regains extremely narrow edge over Pawlenty; Ridge drops hard, back down to 4th place:

Romney 25.2
Pawlenty 25.0
Palin 12.8
Ridge 10.0
Crist 9.9
Lieberman 9.3
Jindal 7.3
Cantor 7.2
Giuliani 5.0
Portman 4.5

[Mr. Morden]

And now, Biden surges into first place in the Dem. VP market:

Biden 28.0
Bayh 25.0

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Only people with a bid are shown.
If the last is not in between the bid and ask, the closer of those is listed.

Democratic VP
Biden 27.9
Bayh 25.0
Clark 14.9
Kaine 14.3
Kerry 9.0
Gephardt 8.9
H. Clinton 8.0
Reed 7.1
Daschle 6.5
Sebelius 5.2
Hagel 5.1
Richardson 5.0
Gore 4.9
Schweitzer 4.5
C. Kennedy 4.0
Rendell 3.6
Nunn 3.3
Napolitano 3.0
Dodd 2.5
McCaskill 2.4
Edwards 2.1
Cohen 2.0
Graham 2.0
Obama 2.0
Zinni 2.0
Bloomberg 1.5
Strickland 1.0
Kerrey 1.0
Webb 1.0
C. Edwards 0.9
Powell 0.4

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bayh now in 3rd place.

Democratic VP odds
Biden 27.1
Kaine 27.0
Bayh 20.1
Clark 9.0
Sebelius 8.5
Richardson 7.5
Daschle 6.5
Hagel 5.1
Reed 5.1
Gore 5.0
Kerrey 5.0
B. Nelson 4.9
Nunn 4.8
C. Kennedy 4.0
Gephardt 4.0

[Mr. Morden]

Joe-mentum:

Biden 42.1
Bayh 15.0
Kaine 13.7
Sebelius 13.0
Clark 8.7
Richardson 8.7
Clinton 8.1
Daschle 6.5
Reed 5.2