Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Ronnie]

Bleh

[Nutmeg]

Was Friday's sample taken before or after the debate?

[Rowan]

Was Friday's sample taken before or after the debate?

Mostly before.

[King]

I can't wait until the Monday or Tuesday results for the weekend.

[Wiz in Wis]

Bleh

Plenty of time left... Plenty.

[Eraserhead]

Gallup and Rasmussen agree... and all is right with the world again.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Saturday - September 27, 2008:

Obama - 49% (+1)
McCain - 44% (-1)

Good to see.

[Lief 🗽]

McCain is finished.

[Brittain33]

Multiple Kossacks are saying a Gallup guy was on tv reporting that today's poll will show Obama +8. It's unclear if it's the tracking poll or the regular Gallup poll, but would they release a regular poll on a Sunday?

[Sam Spade]

Multiple Kossacks are saying a Gallup guy was on tv reporting that today's poll will show Obama +8. It's unclear if it's the tracking poll or the regular Gallup poll, but would they release a regular poll on a Sunday?

I heard the same thing myself.

I don't think that USA Today/Gallup can put out a poll this quick - they would at least have to finish the interviews sometime this afternoon, most likely.  So it has to be the tracking poll.

Considering that the sample which drops off today is actually pro-McCain (it had to be at least McCain by a couple to get the Thursday result), my guess is that Rasmussen and Gallup had a similar sample today - Obama +6 to 8 or so.  If things continue as they should, Rasmussen will probably bump up to where Gallup is tomorrow.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 42 (-2)

[ChrisFromNJ]

Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 42 (-2)

[Rowan]

If it's this next week I will be worried, but since we are still five weeks to go, I will keep some optimism.

[Sam Spade]

Multiple Kossacks are saying a Gallup guy was on tv reporting that today's poll will show Obama +8. It's unclear if it's the tracking poll or the regular Gallup poll, but would they release a regular poll on a Sunday?

btw, the Gallup guy was Frank Newport.  He is the guy at Gallup.

[Lief 🗽]

Gallup:   50 - 42
Diaego:  47 - 42
R2k/DK: 50 - 43
Rass:     50 - 44
Average: 49.25 - 42.75

Obama +6.5

[Ronnie]

McCain is finished.

I semi-agree, but there is time until the election (even though I can't see any possible way he will make up 8 points of ground.)

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 42 (-2)

Frank Newport's take:

These results, from Sept. 25-27, span the time period since John McCain made the announcement that he was temporarily suspending his campaign and returning to Washington to work for a bipartisan solution to the financial crisis, and since Congressional leaders first announced progress towards the resolution of a financial bailout bill. The results also include one complete day (Saturday) after the first presidential debate on Friday night. McCain had reached a point where he was tied with Obama earlier in the week, but Obama has gained steadily in each of the last three days' reports. Overall, Obama has gained four percentage points over the last three days, while McCain has lost four points, for an eight-point swing in the "gap" or margin.

The full impact of the debate and its aftermath will not be reflected in the tracking data until Tuesday's report, which will be based on interviewing conducted Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Still, Gallup's one-day read on the standing of the two candidates on Saturday suggests that Obama held the lead over McCain among registered voters that night, just as he had for the two previous nights.

Obama reached an eight-point lead or higher twice before, once after his highly publicized foreign tour to Afghanistan, Iraq, and Europe in July, and once after the Democratic National Convention. In both of these instances, Obama's relatively large lead was short-lived; McCain came charging back to tie the race in both cases. Thus history would suggest the potential for future shifts in voter preferences and for McCain to bounce back once again.

Additionally, major news events relating to the campaign will be forthcoming over the next several weeks -- including the final resolution of Congress' efforts to pass a financial bailout bill and three more debates (two presidential, and one vice presidential), all of which could have the potential for future shifts in voter preferences. Obama has held at least a moderate edge over McCain for the vast majority of the days of Gallup Poll Daily tracking since June, and overall has led by an average of about three points in the over 100,000 interviews conducted by Gallup during this time period.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 42 (-2)

[Aizen]

Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 42 (-2)

Ah, how beautiful. There are few things more pleasing to my ears than the sound of thousands of Republicans crying out in agony.

[Torie]

I suspect it is close to a done deal now. Sad. Obama passed the gravitas test, and is a very skillful trimmer. 

[JohnCA246]

Lot of time left. Im thankful I'm in my shoes and not the GOP's, but there is time.  Three more debates to, and I expect the GOP to go REALLY negative if things dont improve. 

[Tender Branson]

Gallup:   50 - 42
Diaego:  47 - 42
R2k/DK: 50 - 43
Rass:     50 - 44
Average: 49.25 - 42.75

Obama +6.5

It's Obama+7 if we include R2000's sample from yesterday, which showed Obama up 51-42.

Tomorrow's Rasmussen polls should be funny.

[Ty440]

I suspect it is close to a done deal now. Sad. Obama passed the gravitas test, and is a very skillful trimmer. 

We still have over a month!  A month!  Just in the course of a month, Democrats were down in the dumps, anticipating a President McCain, but this whole financial crisis has turned things around.  There may be more surprises ahead.  In fact, given what we've seen so far, it's almost certain that there will be another "game-changing" moment.  But who will be the beneficiary is unknown.

Amen. I feel good about Florida, I feel Good about Ohio. I do believe Mac will hold on to Virginia, I just don't see Obama greatly improving on the white vote from Kerry there, Bush only got 10% of the African-American vote in Virginia in 2004 so that's a wash.

Remember only 72 hours ago Gallup had it it tied, Remember that huge Obama bounce when he was in Germany. In less than 5 days it was gone.

When Obama starts constantly polling above 53% in PA and MI and CO  ..then Ill start worrying

[Eraserhead]

I'm not sure that we should be expecting major movement towards Obama in all of the swing states just yet. I bet he is really just absolutely smashing McCain in New York, California, Maryland, etc. now.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

This whole economic mess is causing Obama to jump out to a lead. Once it settles down, I suspect the race will tighten again. It's still very fluid with high undecideds. It's far from over, but it's not looking good for McCain. But a few weeks ago it was looking quite the opposite. This has been one strange election season, and I'm sure we have some more surprises ahead.