Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Kaine for Senate '18]

http://Thursday, October 2nd.

Obama: 48 (NC)
McCain 43 (-1)

[ChrisFromNJ]

Friday, October 3rd

Obama: 49 (+1)
Mccain: 42 (-1)

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Friday, October 3rd

Obama: 49 (+1)
Mccain: 42 (-1)

so the polls are in agreement again

[Democratic Hawk]

Women Who Are Politically Independent: Up For Grabs? (3 October, 2008)

Independent women who are Catholic, middle-aged, middle-income split in their votes

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110938/Women-Who-Politically-Independent-Grabs.aspx

Preferences for the General Election Among Independent Female Voters

Aggregate registered voters, Sep. 1-29, 2008. Gallup Poll Daily tracking

Married: Obama 40%; McCain 48%
Not married: Obama 50%; McCain 34%

Have children under 18: Obama 48%; McCain 40%
No children under 18: Obama 43%; McCain 42%

Attend church weekly: Obama 35%; McCain 50%
Almost weekly/Monthly: Obama 47%; McCain 41%
Seldom/Never: Obama 52%; McCain 33%

18 to 34: Obama 57%; McCain 30%
35 to 54: Obama 45%; McCain 43%
55+: Obama 38%; McCain 44%

College: Obama 54%; McCain 37%
No college: Obama 41%; McCain 43%

Protestant: Obama 40%; McCain 44%
Catholic: Obama 43%; Obama 43%
No religion: Obama 66%; McCain 24%

<$2,000 per month: Obama 46%; McCain 36%
$2,000 to <$5,000: Obama 45%; McCain 43%
$5,000 to <$7,500: Obama 50%; McCain 44%
$7,5000 or more: Obama 49%; McCain 42%

Dave

[Brittain33]

Saturday, October 4th

Obama: 50 (+1)
Mccain: 42 (nc)

[Tender Branson]

Good, no Palin-mentum so far.

I had the fear once this fundie is seen by 70 Mio. people on TV, the Mccain numbers would increase, but not so this time ...

[J. J.]

Good, no Palin-mentum so far.

I had the fear once this fundie is seen by 70 Mio. people on TV, the Mccain numbers would increase, but not so this time ...

You have only one day of polling and the 'bots closed slightly.

[Alcon]

Good, no Palin-mentum so far.

I had the fear once this fundie is seen by 70 Mio. people on TV, the Mccain numbers would increase, but not so this time ...

You have only one day of polling and the 'bots closed slightly.

By 0.07 points...

[Rowan]

The last "Palin bounce" took 4-5 days to show up, lets wait a little.

[© tweed]

The last "Palin bounce" took 4-5 days to show up, lets wait a little.

why would she get a bounce if nearly every poll suggests people think she lost?

[Rowan]

The last "Palin bounce" took 4-5 days to show up, lets wait a little.

why would she get a bounce if nearly every poll suggests people think she lost?

Expectations.

[© tweed]

"well, I think Sarah lost, but I was expecting her to lose even worse so I'm gonna vote for McCain now!"

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

We won't see it till Tuesday if there is a Palin bounce.

[Torie]

We won't see it till Tuesday if there is a Palin bounce.

Ras said his daily numbers after the debate were the same as those before, FWIW.

[riceowl]

"well, I think Sarah lost, but I was expecting her to lose even worse so I'm gonna vote for McCain now!"

kinda sorta...but it's more "still gonna vote for McCain now."  I don't think the debate will affect her ticket's numbers

[Eraserhead]

People are expecting a Palin debate bounce? lolz

[CultureKing]

People are expecting a Palin debate bounce? lolz

That's what I was thinking, there won't be a Palin debate bounce.

[Gustaf]

People are expecting a Palin debate bounce? lolz

Don't be mean to people losing their last hope, man.

[minionofmidas]

Sarah Palin - the last, best hope of earth?

[Eraserhead]

People are expecting a Palin debate bounce? lolz

Don't be mean to people losing their last hope, man.

sorry

[Firefly]

Sunday, October 5th

Obama: 50 (nc)
Mccain: 43 (+1)

[Rowan]

MOMENTUM!

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday, October 5th

Obama: 50 (nc)
Mccain: 43 (+1)

This is the ninth consecutive Gallup Poll Daily report showing Obama leading by a significant margin, tying Obama's record frontrunner streak of nine days around the time of the Democratic National Convention in late August and early September.

Today's result includes two full days of interviewing after the Oct. 2 vice presidential debate between Gov. Sarah Palin and Sen. Joe Biden, as well as after the news on Friday, Oct. 3, that Congress had passed a revised economic rescue plan to help alleviate the Wall Street financial crisis.

The race has been slightly closer on both of these two individual days (Oct. 3-4) than the previous two days. Obama held particularly large leads over McCain from Oct. 1-2, possibly resulting from Americans' focus on the Wall Street financial crisis and congressional rescue plan dominating the news at that time. Since then, support for Obama has remained about the same, at the 49% to 50% level, while support for McCain has increased slightly, with an associated decline in the percentage of undecided voters.

Monday's report will be the first based entirely on interviews conducted after the vice presidential faceoff and, as such, will be an important indicator of whether Palin's debate performance and, or any possible easing of public anxiety over the rescue package since Friday, may have benefited the Republican ticket.

[Rowan]

So the last two nights McCain has cut into the lead? Nice. Maybe by Tuesday we'll be down 4?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So the last two nights McCain has cut into the lead? Nice. Maybe by Tuesday we'll be down 4?

If I had a dime for every time someone on this forum committed the trend line fallacy...