Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[J. J.]

And the Dow is off by less than 100 points for the week.

[Lunar]

[ucscgaldamez]

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-Gallup

[Eraserhead]

Thursday night was very big for Obama.

[ucscgaldamez]

Waiting to see Hotline/FD tracking numbers. Obama erased McCain's advantage in the Battleground poll. He also went up in the Research 2000 poll. These polls seem to point to the same direction. We'll have to wait to see the poll numbers next week, if Obama holds up the lead, then that would be good news as he would be back on top, especially after the McCain/Palin surge that had me a bit worried. I honestly thought that there was no way that Obama would be back on top in September. The RNC was a success for McCain; Palin has energized the base and was supposed to increase women's support for McCain. It seems to have stopped. That's great news. This is Septemeber, a crucial month for determining the next president. Bush was ahead of Kerry in about 31/35 polls done in September.

[Verily]

The Battleground poll is slow to react because it's an eight-day tracker.

[ucscgaldamez]

Right.

[Sam Spade]

The Battleground poll is slow to react because it's an eight-day tracker.

Actually, it isn't.  It's 9/11, 9/14, 9/17 and 9/18.  I really can't explain the date significance.

[Aizen]

Is this the point where Obama takes off and McCain never catches up?

[Lief 🗽]

And the Dow is off by less than 100 points for the week.

That's great for the investor/millionaire class. But most Americans didn't need a bad day on Wall Street to tell them that they're struggling to get by.

[Iosif]

And the Dow is off by less than 100 points for the week.

That's great for the investor/millionaire class. But most Americans didn't need a bad day on Wall Street to tell them that they're struggling to get by.

The shot in the polls suggest otherwise.

[minionofmidas]

Wow. Is this election over? (No, I'm seriously asking. Isn't the recent pattern basically one of no movement between a few days from now and two weeks before the election, when it will once again look like everything's in flux - but the results then show the answer to that as "not really"?)

[Brittain33]

Wow. Is this election over?

We haven't seen the "Whitey" tape yet...

[minionofmidas]

Wow. Is this election over?

We haven't seen the "Whitey" tape yet...

[Rowan]

Last three nights estimated Gallup results(most recent first):

Obama +3.0%
Obama +3.4%
Obama +8.6%

Thus Obama's best night will fall off the tracker, so McCain should gain a point or 2 tomorrow.

[Lief 🗽]

And the Dow is off by less than 100 points for the week.

That's great for the investor/millionaire class. But most Americans didn't need a bad day on Wall Street to tell them that they're struggling to get by.

The shot in the polls suggest otherwise.

The catastrophe on wall street forced the media to change the topic of the election to the economy; when we're talking about the economy, rather than pointless distractions, Obama should get a boost. McCain's convention bounce was bound to evaporate faster when the news story changed to a new one, and then, to top it all off, Palin's favorables have collapsed.

[Sam Spade]

Last three nights estimated Gallup results(most recent first):

Obama +3.0%
Obama +3.4%
Obama +8.6%

Thus Obama's best night will fall off the tracker, so McCain should gain a point or 2 tomorrow.

That doesn't fit with this remark:

Obama enjoyed one of his widest advantages over McCain of recent weeks in Thursday night's interviewing. It will be important to see whether the stock market's reaction today to aggressive government intervention in the crisis has an impact of the direction of the presidential race over the next few days.

So, how are you coming to this conclusion.  Once again, do you have access to internals?

[Rowan]

Last three nights estimated Gallup results(most recent first):

Obama +3.0%
Obama +3.4%
Obama +8.6%

Thus Obama's best night will fall off the tracker, so McCain should gain a point or 2 tomorrow.

That doesn't fit with this remark:

Obama enjoyed one of his widest advantages over McCain of recent weeks in Thursday night's interviewing. It will be important to see whether the stock market's reaction today to aggressive government intervention in the crisis has an impact of the direction of the presidential race over the next few days.

So, how are you coming to this conclusion.  Once again, do you have access to internals?

I don't know why that is written into their write-up. I have spoken to 2 other people who's nightly results are similar to mine(off by a point because of rounding), Gallup can write whatever they want in their write-up but the numbers don't lie at this point.

Wait till tomorrow, if McCain gets closer, my numbers will prove to be close to accurate.

[Sam Spade]

Last three nights estimated Gallup results(most recent first):

Obama +3.0%
Obama +3.4%
Obama +8.6%

Thus Obama's best night will fall off the tracker, so McCain should gain a point or 2 tomorrow.

That doesn't fit with this remark:

Obama enjoyed one of his widest advantages over McCain of recent weeks in Thursday night's interviewing. It will be important to see whether the stock market's reaction today to aggressive government intervention in the crisis has an impact of the direction of the presidential race over the next few days.

So, how are you coming to this conclusion.  Once again, do you have access to internals?

I don't know why that is written into their write-up. I have spoken to 2 other people who's nightly results are similar to mine(off by a point because of rounding), Gallup can write whatever they want in their write-up but the numbers don't lie at this point.

Wait till tomorrow, if McCain gets closer, my numbers will prove to be close to accurate.

Well, it would seem like the reverse of your numbers would better fit their actual talk, but you're right, we'll see...

[Kaine for Senate '18]

September 19,2008
Obama 49% (+1)
McCain 44%(nc)

[Nym90]

Wow. Is this election over?

We haven't seen the "Whitey" tape yet...

Kind of like how Allen had this evidence that was supposed to sink Webb, right?

Maybe AuH20 will pop back up with the whitey tape.

[J. J.]

Last three nights estimated Gallup results(most recent first):

Obama +3.0%
Obama +3.4%
Obama +8.6%

Thus Obama's best night will fall off the tracker, so McCain should gain a point or 2 tomorrow.

It might have been a bad sample.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think both Gallup and Ras. are showing that the bounce has subsided.

I think there were two bounces which overlapped. The Palin bounce and the Convention bounce. I think both have gone largely.

Palin's bounce was more than likely a shift to McCain/Palin of indepdent women - who have since realised who/what Palin is and they've fallen back. No suprise McCain's numbers slip, as her unfavourables rise.

It's certainly not over, but Palin was a risky choice, and just how risky I think is being shown now.

[Ronnie]

I think both Gallup and Ras. are showing that the bounce has subsided.

I think there were two bounces which overlapped. The Palin bounce and the Convention bounce. I think both have gone largely.

Palin's bounce was more than likely a shift to McCain/Palin of indepdent women - who have since realised who/what Palin is and they've fallen back. No suprise McCain's numbers slip, as her unfavourables rise.

It's certainly not over, but Palin was a risky choice, and just how risky I think is being shown now.

We won't see how "risky" she was until after the debates.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I don't disagree.

I don't mean risky in a necessarily "negative" way - since there does seem to be a correlation between the perception of Palin and McCain's numbers. I think McCain has been overwhelmed - firstly by Obama, then by Palin and now by circumstances.

I saw the Huckabee on adviser on AC360 and she basically made the point that Obama's got the right message on the economy, and McCain doesnt. While making a VERY weak argument tying Washington lobbyists and Obama to the financial crisis (while trying to maintain that 'fundamentals of the economy are strong' line) - when all evidence shows that its McCain's attempt to pull the 'everything old is new again' re-hash of Reaganite economic populism.... of course forgetting that it's the gutting of financial regulations that helped create this situation.