Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The key numbers I'm interested in are Latinos and women.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

McCain has obviously been able to knock Obama off his perch - McCain is leading now.

It's certainly not irreversible.

Obama needs to get on message - namely "The Republicans have so little faith in the presidential candidate... they've made their VP the image of their ticket"

"The Republicans are more interested in feigning offence and creating rankor, rather than trying to create solutions to the REAL problems you face"

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think both Gallup and Ras. are showing that the bounce has subsided.

I think there were two bounces which overlapped. The Palin bounce and the Convention bounce. I think both have gone largely.

Palin's bounce was more than likely a shift to McCain/Palin of indepdent women - who have since realised who/what Palin is and they've fallen back. No suprise McCain's numbers slip, as her unfavourables rise.

It's certainly not over, but Palin was a risky choice, and just how risky I think is being shown now.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I don't disagree.

I don't mean risky in a necessarily "negative" way - since there does seem to be a correlation between the perception of Palin and McCain's numbers. I think McCain has been overwhelmed - firstly by Obama, then by Palin and now by circumstances.

I saw the Huckabee on adviser on AC360 and she basically made the point that Obama's got the right message on the economy, and McCain doesnt. While making a VERY weak argument tying Washington lobbyists and Obama to the financial crisis (while trying to maintain that 'fundamentals of the economy are strong' line) - when all evidence shows that its McCain's attempt to pull the 'everything old is new again' re-hash of Reaganite economic populism.... of course forgetting that it's the gutting of financial regulations that helped create this situation.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Problem is once he's elected and he destroys the economy and allows Russia to run over Eastern Europe (it would be the perfect time to do it), people will be still praising him.

What is with Republicans this year... was there some weird space-time continum issue that sent them back to 1980.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

i know its been said, but i just want to reiterate how BS it is that gallup is doing 3 different numbers.  i cant believe they are being allowed to get away with it.  sure, turnout is hard to predict, but that is their job.

I actually think its fair since this election, probably more that any other in a long time has such a capacity for an unpredictable turnout.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm resigned to the inevitability of Gallup being way too good for McCain later today. He will be President-elect this time next week, on that I'm absolutely 100% certain

Dave

While I'm sure many would love to see that happen, I think it is premature to start crowning someone the winner.  Polling, especially in 2008, is as reliable as a used car from the classifieds.  

Dave.... seriously, breathe.

I'm worried by the degree to which McCain is closing, and will be beyond horrfied if McCain/Palin actually manages to have won... but there is a lot of unpredictable elements, we simply don't know.