Official South Dakota and Montana Democratic Primary Results Discussion Thread

[Torie]

What I find amusing is that perhaps that ARG poll in South Dakota actually got it right(well it was still off by quite a bit, but it was the only one to predict a double digit Clinton win.)

This way both Hillary and ARG can close out the primaries on high note that means and signifies nothing.

Well, they were only off by their usual 14 points.

Given the apparent Pierre typo, and Rapid City being less counted, and the two native American counties out, it is still quite possible that Clinton might erode down to a about 9% lead. It depends on what the Injuns do in part. The exits hinted at maybe a 10% Obama lead, and if that is so, then  Hillary will probably hold her double digit lead. But I would not trust an exit poll out of Pine Ridge myself.

With regards to Pierre (Hughes co.) there doesn't seem to be anything too abnormal considering 63% of the registered voters were republicans and 26% Democrats (2788 voters) it doesn't seem like that low a turnout.

Maybe the GOP governor packed the place with political appointees.

[Хahar 🤔]

John Roberts needs to be shot for this "analysis" on CNN

Watching that electoral college analysis was truly painful.

Can somebody tell me what's going on? My little brother changed the TV from C-SPAN to SpongeBob.

[Alcon]

Clinton +21 in Deer Lodge (Anaconda), which along with neighboring Silver Bow (Butte) is a mining, ethnic Catholic, working-class stronghold (AKA more like Clinton +30 territory)

[Mr. Morden]

John Roberts needs to be shot for this "analysis" on CNN

Watching that electoral college analysis was truly painful.

Can somebody tell me what's going on? My little brother changed the TV from C-SPAN to SpongeBob.

It was an electoral college "analysis" that had Obama possibly winning Georgia, and Clinton possibly swinging Nevada to Obama if she's the VP.

[Meeker]

John Roberts needs to be shot for this "analysis" on CNN

Watching that electoral college analysis was truly painful.

Can somebody tell me what's going on? My little brother changed the TV from C-SPAN to SpongeBob.

Apparently Georgia and Virginia are voting for Obama, but McCain may be able to offset that with a win in Minnesota since they have a Republican Governor. Oh but Charlie Crist has a machine in Florida that will allow McCain to carry that state.

[Alcon]

Missoula fixed to 70-28 Obama

[Dan the Roman]

John Roberts needs to be shot for this "analysis" on CNN

Charlie Crist has a machine? Yea, an electronic dildo. WTF?

Can the Obama campaign off-set a Minnesota loss with a Georgia win?

grahhhhh *bang*

He could always make up for his loss of California by winning South Carolina and Texas, Santos Style.

[12th Doctor]

John Roberts needs to be shot for this "analysis" on CNN

Watching that electoral college analysis was truly painful.

Can somebody tell me what's going on? My little brother changed the TV from C-SPAN to SpongeBob.

Basically:

"Obama is trying to win Georgia, Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, while McCain is trying to offset that with his truly great hopes of winning Minnesota, thanks to Tim Pawlenty, also Michigan is obviously for Obama and Obama has a chance in FL."  Makes me wonder if he has even seen the polls, or knows what an election is.  It was painful.

[Хahar 🤔]

Yuck. Remind me to YouTube it later.

[Alcon]

Obama +3 in early Great Falls returns, an area he'll need to perform OK in to win the Eastern delegate

And I just realized I have no reason to care about that whatsoever.  How freeing

[Torie]

Clinton +21 in Deer Lodge (Anaconda), which along with neighboring Silver Bow (Butte) is a mining, ethnic Catholic, working-class stronghold (AKA more like Clinton +30 territory)

Oddly, the next door neighbors when I was a kid both grew up in Deer Lodge and had kids our age, and the two families have been friends forever, were upper middle class atheistic WASPS. (Granted her parents owned the country store, and his parents owned the local cannery.) And so it goes. The father used to hunt deer with Mike Mansfield (a history professor I think back then) when he was at the U of Montana way back when.

[Хahar 🤔]

Clinton +21 in Deer Lodge (Anaconda), which along with neighboring Silver Bow (Butte) is a mining, ethnic Catholic, working-class stronghold (AKA more like Clinton +30 territory)

Oddly, the next door neighbors when I was a kid both grew up in Deer Lodge and had kids our age, and the two families have been friends forever, were upper middle class atheistic WASPS. (Granted her parents owned the country store, and his parents owned the local cannery.) And so it goes. The father used to hunt deer with Mike Mansfield (a history professor I think back then) when he was at the U of Montana way back when.

When I'm an old person, will I have all these connections?

[NOVA Green]

John Roberts needs to be shot for this "analysis" on CNN

Watching that electoral college analysis was truly painful.

Can somebody tell me what's going on? My little brother changed the TV from C-SPAN to SpongeBob.

Apparently Georgia and Virginia are voting for Obama, but McCain may be able to offset that with a win in Minnesota since they have a Republican Governor. Oh but Charlie Crist has a machine in Florida that will allow McCain to carry that state.

I had forgotten CNN was going to do a general election matchup and was bummed that I missed it because I switched to MSNBC on the commercial break... now that you have all clued me in, I'm glad I missed it.

[Torie]

You might! A guy the neighbor became friends with at the U of Montana, became a famous lawyer  in Orange County California, and President of the State Bar. Alas he was a Democrat, but I liked him anyway. He used to sing songs with my Dad while he played his banjo. My dad was a quite skilled bass banjo player, and played in a Dixieland band. Ah the memories.

[Eraserhead]

I guess Clinton's South Dakota win really makes the case for barnstorming in small states. President Forever style.

[NOVA Green]

I guess Clinton's South Dakota win really makes the case for barnstorming in small states. President Forever style.

Maybe he had those "35 hidden super-delegates" in his pocket after all these past two weeks and decided it would be better to take a shot at the NV/CO/NM strategy instead of going door in a state he is likely to lose 45-55 or worse in November....

[Eraserhead]

Montana is lifting my spirits.

Good stuff.

[Torie]

Montana is lifting my spirits.

Good stuff.

I am not persuaded yet that Obama will carry Montana by double digits.

[Eraserhead]

Montana is lifting my spirits.

Good stuff.

I am not persuaded yet that Obama will carry Montana by double digits.

Why is that?

[Meeker]

Paul has unfortunately failed to reach viability in both South Dakota and New Mexico.

[NOVA Green]

Montana is lifting my spirits.

Good stuff.

I am not persuaded yet that Obama will carry Montana by double digits.

His lead is shrinking since they recalled the Missoula dorm precinct with abnormal results (j/k).

The question is will Missoula (26% in) and Helena (43% in) overcome against Great Falls (0% in ) and Billings (47% in).

Honestly you may be right, especially considering these percentage of precinct numbers in are a little strange.

[Eraserhead]

So I guess the turnout is going to be much higher in Montana than in South Dakota... cool.

[Torie]

Montana is lifting my spirits.

Good stuff.

I am not persuaded yet that Obama will carry Montana by double digits.

Why is that?

Obamaland appears to be "over-counted" so far, and Clintonia "under-counted," and Silver Bow is not in, and Obama is carrying Billings only by about 3%, and only 13% of the votes are in. But I don't have a real handle on it.

[Alcon]

Over in South Dakota, Pennington County (Rapid City) is a nail-biter and mum from ShannonCo, although Todd County came in as over 60% Obama.

[Alcon]

Gallatin County (Bozeman) is 75-24 Obama in early returns

Missoula is almost all-in

Obama leads 59-39