Official Indiana Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Tender Branson]

Election Night Reporting

[ChrisFromNJ]

I'm rooting for a big Hillary win tonight. The Lake and Allen County numbers will be very intriguing to see when the polls close; if Obama is not breaking even in Allen and winning Lake by a good margin, he will have a long night.

[Alcon]

I'm rooting for a big Hillary win tonight. The Lake and Allen County numbers will be very intriguing to see when the polls close; if Obama is not breaking even in Allen and winning Lake by a good margin, he will have a long night.

Lake County is in another time zone so I doubt we'll be able to use them as an early indicator.

[Verily]

I'm rooting for a big Hillary win tonight. The Lake and Allen County numbers will be very intriguing to see when the polls close; if Obama is not breaking even in Allen and winning Lake by a good margin, he will have a long night.

Lake County is in another time zone so I doubt we'll be able to use them as an early indicator.

I thought they just closed early. Isn't that how Indiana is always one of the first three states called in Presidential elections?

[Alcon]

I thought they just closed early. Isn't that how Indiana is always one of the first three states called in Presidential elections?

Polls is Indiana close at 6 PM ET for the most part.  They then start counting those counties that are in Eastern Time.  Then, at 7 PM ET, the CT counties close and there's generalyl enough information from the ET countise that networks can generally call the race immediately.  Kentucky is the same way.

While Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia all also close at 7 PM ET, they just then start counting, so they don't have the "head start" that Indiana and Kentucky have.

In 2004, the first four states to be called -- Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky and Vermont -- all happened at the same time, right at the 7 PM ET close.

[Eraserhead]

I'm hearing a lot more about NC than IN today. What's the word?

[Tender Branson]

I'm hearing a lot more about NC than IN today. What's the word?

"Polls close at 6 p.m., and Marion County Clerk Beth White said turnout already is looking less like a primary than a general election. Based on reports from precincts, she said turnout may surpass the November 2006 election, when one-third of Marion County voters showed up, but might not be as large as the 2004 election, when nearly 54 percent of registered voters took part in the contest pitting President George W. Bush against John Kerry.

Four years ago, less than one in five Marion County registered voters showed up for the primary.

Democratic ballots are popular even in southern Marion County precincts, normally Republican strongholds, White said. The turnout has prompted some nervous poll workers to call an Election Board hotline with worries about Democratic ballots running short, though none have run out yet.

White said she was "cautiously optimistic" that election staff printed enough Democratic ballots to satisfy the anticipated demand. So far, none have run out, she said.

One thing was clear by noon: Election results will take a while tonight. White said she would be surprised to have them available before 8:30 or 9 p.m."

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080506/NEWS0502/805060396

[Mr. Morden]

I thought they just closed early. Isn't that how Indiana is always one of the first three states called in Presidential elections?

Polls is Indiana close at 6 PM ET for the most part.  They then start counting those counties that are in Eastern Time.  Then, at 7 PM ET, the CT counties close and there's generalyl enough information from the ET countise that networks can generally call the race immediately.  Kentucky is the same way.

While Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia all also close at 7 PM ET, they just then start counting, so they don't have the "head start" that Indiana and Kentucky have.

In 2004, the first four states to be called -- Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky and Vermont -- all happened at the same time, right at the 7 PM ET close.

There is also the fact that, up until 2000, if I'm not mistaken, the networks were willing to call states in which the bulk of the polls had closed, even while there were some counties in another timezone where voting was still going on.  That's how Florida was called for Gore (and then later retracted) while the panhandle was still voting.  That caused such a huge controversy that the networks agreed to start holding back any calls until all polling places in a state were closed.

[Gustaf]

When will we get official exit polls from Indiana? Any chance of that happening before 7 PM EST?

[agcatter]

Chris, why Allen County.  Isn't it one of the larger Republican leaning counties?

[Mr. Morden]

When will we get official exit polls from Indiana? Any chance of that happening before 7 PM EST?

No, they won't release the full exit poll until after polls have closed in the entire state.

[Alcon]

Jeremiah Wright:

Not important 49%
Important 48%

(Obama: Uh-oh?)

[Alcon]

More crap:

Recession has affected you - Clinton 53-46
Recession has not affected you - Obama 54-46

Realistically, the Clinton lead is somewhere between Clinton +5 and Obama +1 in early Indiana exits.  Depends on how pissed the WASPs are.

[Mr. Morden]

Alcon, what is your source for these numbers?  The cable TV networks, or are you getting it from somewhere on the web?

[Sam Spade]

Well, if 2/3rds say that the economy is a big issue and 40% say that it has affected them a great deal. (as opposed to somewhat - I presume degradations in affectation), if these numbers say, split 60-40 affected, it would be Clinton 52-Obama 48.  If they split 40-60 not affected, it would be opposite.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

More crap:

Recession has affected you - Clinton 53-46
Recession has not affected you - Obama 54-46

Realistically, the Clinton lead is somewhere between Clinton +5 and Obama +1 in early Indiana exits.  Depends on how pissed the WASPs are.

That looks pretty good for Obama. 

[Flying Dog]

If the exits show 52-48 Clinton then It'll likely be 56-44 or 55-45. Depending on how much Indiana voters lie.

[Alcon]

Alcon, what is your source for these numbers?  The cable TV networks, or are you getting it from somewhere on the web?

CNN

Well, if 2/3rds say that the economy is a big issue and 40% say that it has affected them a great deal. (as opposed to somewhat - I presume degradations in affectation), if these numbers say, split 60-40 affected, it would be Clinton 52-Obama 48.  If they split 40-60 not affected, it would be opposite.

No, if there's a 60-40 split, it would be 50.2-49.2 Clinton...unless I'm doing my math wrong.

(0.6*0.53)+(0.4*0.46)=0.502 = 50.2% Clinton
(0.6*0.46)+(0.4*0.54)=0.492 = 49.2% Obama

In Indiana, Clinton voters would vote 48-33 Obama in the General.

[Franzl]

More crap:

Recession has affected you - Clinton 53-46
Recession has not affected you - Obama 54-46

Realistically, the Clinton lead is somewhere between Clinton +5 and Obama +1 in early Indiana exits.  Depends on how pissed the WASPs are.

That looks pretty good for Obama. 

but if the exit poll is off like most of them were, it could easily be double digits for Clinton

[Verily]

More crap:

Recession has affected you - Clinton 53-46
Recession has not affected you - Obama 54-46

Realistically, the Clinton lead is somewhere between Clinton +5 and Obama +1 in early Indiana exits.  Depends on how pissed the WASPs are.

That looks pretty good for Obama. 

but if the exit poll is off like most of them were, it could easily be double digits for Clinton

The exit polls are not generally off, it's the unweighted early numbers that are. These are not the unweighted numbers, they're near-useless breakdowns from weighted numbers. When Drudge leaks an exit poll, that's when you can use that line.

[Sam Spade]

Your math is right Alcon, sorry.

[Alcon]

Blacks: 92-8 Obama

[Verily]

Blacks: 92-8 Obama

Surprise, surprise.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's the exact breakdown on the top issue for Indiana:

http://thepage.time.com/preliminary-exit-polls-from-cnn-2/

Top issue for Indiana voters:

Economy– 65%
Iraq– 19%
Health care– 13%

[Alcon]

Indiana is closed.  Most of it, at least.  Don't expect much in the next hour, if the SoS is being truthful.