LA-06-SurveyUSA: Cazayoux favored in special election

[TheresNoMoney]

Awesome!

[Meeker]

CQ:

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Umm... do they realize they lost? In an R +6.5 Southern District? That they've held since 1974?

[Adlai Stevenson]

Gilda Reed lost 22%-75%!  Is LA-1 the most Republican District in the country?

I'm pleased that Cazayoux won obviously but surprised how close the margin was - just like Travers Childers in MS-1, he came so close but fell just short of getting 50%.  I hope that Cazayoux can hold this seat in November but as someone mentioned that Mary Landrieu has always lost here it might well be tough for him - will Jenkins be the GOP candidate again?

[Meeker]

will Jenkins be the GOP candidate again?

Maybe. Filing isn't until July 11th, so others have time to jump in. They're probably going to be somewhat inclined to not renominate him again if there's another viable contender I think.

[Mr.Phips]

Gilda Reed lost 22%-75%!  Is LA-1 the most Republican District in the country?

I'm pleased that Cazayoux won obviously but surprised how close the margin was - just like Travers Childers in MS-1, he came so close but fell just short of getting 50%.  I hope that Cazayoux can hold this seat in November but as someone mentioned that Mary Landrieu has always lost here it might well be tough for him - will Jenkins be the GOP candidate again?

Cazayoux will likely hold this seat for a long time.  Louisiana is one of the states that never ousts incumbents. 

[HardRCafé]

Cazayoux will likely hold this seat for a long time.  Louisiana is one of the states that never ousts incumbents. 

Because they switch parties if they are about to lose.

[minionofmidas]

Don Cazayoux and a cashew... What do they have in common? They're both nuts.

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Iceland got ripped off!

[minionofmidas]

Louisiana has moved to more normal, less sane primary rules, yes. But they're still doing things their own way - the primary runoff is just four weeks before the general election, the last primary in the country.

And I wouldn't bet the house on Cazayoux holding this district4ever. Way too many LA-1 type suburban ultrapartisan Republican types for comfort.

[Brittain33]

Gilda Reed lost 22%-75%!  Is LA-1 the most Republican District in the country?

Ha! I hate to find myself in the position of upsetting people on my team, but I got in a fight with a Kossack who considered it a "slap in the face" the DCCC wasn't funding Reed the way they funded Childers after he started putting up big vote totals, and when I responded that the district was just not winnable, both that guy and Gilda Reed personally responded to tell me I didn't know what I was talking about. Awkward.

Did you know LA-1 has more registered Democrats than Republicans? Wow, it's totally ripe for takeover. I blame Rahm!!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I read that Cazayoux supports pulling out of Iraq. For that I'm happy and willing to tolerate him.

[Democratic Hawk]

Awesome!

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Chalk up yet another pyrrhic victory for the Club for Growth.

[minionofmidas]

Chalk up yet another pyrrhic victory for the Club for Growth.

Eh. Scalise was their candidate as well.

[Sam Spade]

Chalk up yet another pyrrhic victory for the Club for Growth.

Eh. Scalise was their candidate as well.

A brain-dead idiot with an (R) next to his name could win that seat. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

Chalk up yet another pyrrhic victory for the Club for Growth.

Eh. Scalise was their candidate as well.

A brain-dead idiot with an (R) next to his name could win that seat. 

I thought he just did? 

[Keystone Phil]

Chalk up yet another pyrrhic victory for the Club for Growth.

I was waiting for that one!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I've never got why the Club for Growth is more concerned with beating Republicans than beating Democrats. Granted they ran anti-Cazayoux ads but they sure as hell wouldn't have if their guy didn't win. I suppose backing their guys may make sense in districts like LA-01 and MD-01 but what's the point of trying to take down Lincoln Chafee?

[Keystone Phil]

but what's the point of trying to take down Lincoln Chafee?

What's the difference between taking down Chafee and taking down a registered Democrat? Seriously. There were plenty of people that truly believed we were losing that seat anyway so why not lose with the guy that was closer to what we believe? Chafee had an approval rating of over 60% in November 2006. When you lose by about six points with those ratings, it doesn't matter if you had a primary opponent "draining" you earlier in the year. No one with an "R" next to their name was going to win that seat.

Chafee is a spineless, whiney prick. I was at Barnes and Noble Friday night and picked up his new book. The first paragraph was his typical complaints about being a "moderate" and being pushed around by the extremists. Amazing how Linc had no problem taking all the help he could get from those extremists (their cash) two years ago. I'm glad we are without him.

And now this will become a war between me and bullmoose, htmldon, etc. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What's the difference between taking down Chafee and taking down a registered Democrat? Seriously. There were plenty of people that truly believed we were losing that seat anyway so why not lose with the guy that was closer to what we believe?

Because it's a waste of money?

[Keystone Phil]

What's the difference between taking down Chafee and taking down a registered Democrat? Seriously. There were plenty of people that truly believed we were losing that seat anyway so why not lose with the guy that was closer to what we believe?

Because it's a waste of money?

I guess it could go to better races but I don't like giving a free ride to people like Chafee.

[Sam Spade]

Chalk up yet another pyrrhic victory for the Club for Growth.

Eh. Scalise was their candidate as well.

A brain-dead idiot with an (R) next to his name could win that seat. 

I thought he just did? 

I don't know very much about Scalise, so I can't comment.

[HardRCafé]

Because it's a waste of money?

The waste of money was the NRSC giving money to Chafee instead of Talent, Burns, and Allen.

[CollectiveInterest]

if the Dems win 60% of the seats now held by Republicans that are less competitive than LA-06, how many seats will flip in November?

[Meeker]

if the Dems win 60% of the seats now held by Republicans that are less competitive than LA-06, how many seats will flip in November?

A bunch

[Verily]

I think that would be some ridiculous number, like 50. Not going to happen.