LA-06-SurveyUSA: Cazayoux favored in special election

[Kevinstat]

Jenkins back in the lead by 1.05% (yeah I know you beat me HardRCafe)

U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District
439 (85.7%) of 512 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
41,527 47.15% "Don" Cazayoux  -  
42,449 48.20% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  -  
383 .43% Peter J. Aranyosi  -  
3,386 3.84% Ashley Casey  -  
328 .37% Randall T. Hayes  -  

[Alcon]

508/512

Cazayou +3,030.

'Tis over unless there was a reporting error.

[Alcon]

Remaining precincts, not that it matters, are in Ward 1, Precinct 9x.  All of them went Kerry by over 4-to-1 margins.

[Kevinstat]

Wow, what a turnaround!  Probably a bunch of heavily black precincts came in (not a knock, just an explanation).

[MarkWarner08]

508/512

Cazayou +3,030.

'Tis over unless there was a reporting error.

Too close for comfort. Looks like Michael Jackson almost cost Cazayoux the election.

Voters may have been repelled by the inane and absurd ads produced for the NRCC.
Most went like this:

Don Cazayoux and a cashew... What do they have in common? They're both nuts.
Don Cazayoux plans to raise taxes until every middle class Louisiana family sells their last gumbo pot. He's also joined forces with crypto-Muslim Barack Obama's pastor in an effort to raise public awarenesses of the evilness of apple pie.

If you vote for Cazayoux, the price of oil will go to $10 a gallon, Obama will sell Louisiana to Iceland for two slabs of seal meat, and Nancy Pelosi will force you Brett Favre wannabe son to march in a transvestite pride parade. And don't forget LIBERAL Cazayouz = higher TAXES.

Instead vote for that racist guy who loves fetuses.

Paid for by the Committee to save Tom Cole from another expletive laden John Boehner tirade.

[Alcon]

...Michael Jackson?

[Storebought]

...Michael Jackson?

A black politician (state representative) from Baton Rouge. Locally, no one would ever confuse him with the King of Pop.

[Kevinstat]

Not that it matters now in projecting who will win (that's crystal clear now), but since I created the spreadsheet and was planning to post it...

In East Baton Rouge, with 4 (1.27%) of 314 precincts remaining:

33,244 (51.37%) "Don" Cazayoux
28.296 (43.72%) Louis "Woody" Jenkins
2,702 (4.17%) Ashley Casey
248 (0.38%) Randall T. Hayes
231 (0.36%) Peter J. Aranyosi

[MarkWarner08]

...Michael Jackson?

A black politician (state representative) from Baton Rouge. Locally, no one would ever confuse him with the King of Pop.

He ran TV ads before the runoff urging blacks to stay home. http://www.bayoubuzz.com/News/Louisiana/Politics/Elections/Louisiana_Sixth_Congressional_District_Election_Late_Moves__6347.asp

[Kushahontas]

omg this is ending up more competitive than the race in LA-01!!!!!!!11!!!one!

[Kevinstat]

Cayazoux carried every parish or portion thereof in the district except for Livington, Ascension and (narrowly) East Feliciana.

[Kevinstat]

You don't think Gilda Reed is going to win that last precinct by 23,670 votes?  What ails you? 

[Kushahontas]

hahahahaha

[Kevinstat]

Jenkins must have carried the last precinct (carried heavily by Kerry in 2004 according to Alcon) to come in, as Cazayoux's lead is down to 2,817 now.  At this rate Cazayoux's final margin would go down to 2,178 (based on Alcon's 3,030 margin for Cazayoux with four precincts remaining).

[Alcon]

Jenkins must have carried the last precinct (carried heavily by Kerry in 2004 according to Alcon) to come in, as Cazayoux's lead is down to 2,817 now.  At this rate Cazayoux's final margin would go down to 2,178 (based on Alcon's 3,030 margin for Cazayoux with four precincts remaining).

They must have deleted the black precinct range and added some white precincts.  So, I have no idea what just came in and what's left.  Could be black, could be white, could be mixed.

[HardRCafé]

49,702    49.20%   "Don" Cazayoux
46,741   46.27%   Louis "Woody" Jenkins

[Verily]

The above are the full results.

[Nutmeg]

No runoff?

[Verily]

No runoff?

Apparently not. Louisiana has begun to abolish them.

[Wiz in Wis]

No runoff?

Apparently not. Louisiana has begun to abolish them.

Not in a Special Election, already had a primary...

Also w00t!!!

[Nutmeg]

No runoff?

Apparently not. Louisiana has begun to abolish them.

Not in a Special Election, already had a primary...

It's weird that they have primary runoffs but not general election runoffs.

[The Dowager Mod]

Jenkins is a sleazy character.

[Brandon H]

...Michael Jackson?

A black politician (state representative) from Baton Rouge. Locally, no one would ever confuse him with the King of Pop.

Keep in mind our State Treasurer running against Mary Landrieu for Senate is John Kennedy.

No runoff?

Apparently not. Louisiana has begun to abolish them.

Not in a Special Election, already had a primary...

It's weird that they have primary runoffs but not general election runoffs.

Starting with this election, for Congressional elections only, Louisiana now has a party primary, then a run-off if no one gets 50% in the primary, then a general election which one can win with less than 50%.

Now given Cazayoux won without getting over 50%, we can now speculate whether Casey, Aranyosi, and Hayes played a role in the outcome.

[Sam Spade]

I'm shocked Jenkins came this close actually.

[7,052,770]

1 down, 1 to go.