LA-06-SurveyUSA: Cazayoux favored in special election

[Tender Branson]

Don Cazayoux (D): 50%
Woody Jenkins (R): 41%
   
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Despite enduring two weeks of constant attacks on the air from Republicans and independent conservative groups, Cazayoux had a net favorability rating of plus-15 (43 percent favorable, 28 percent unfavorable and 28 percent neutral or unfamiliar), according to the poll.

Jenkins, who came into the race with much higher name identification but who was known as a controversial figure, had a minus-13 favorability rating (36 percent favorable, 49 percent unfavorable and 14 percent neutral or unfamiliar).

http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1857

[Verily]

Meh. We get the slightly less unpleasant choice. Although maybe Cazayoux will surprise me, I am skeptical.

[memphis]

Sweet. Growing the majority.

[Tender Branson]

Crosstabs are now online:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0782f030-b12d-441d-814f-37ebb287477b

[Lief 🗽]

Meh. We get the slightly less unpleasant choice. Although maybe Cazayoux will surprise me, I am skeptical.

A horrible Democrat is better than a horrible Republican.

[Alcon]

I haven't followed the race much.  Why are Cazayoux and Jenkins jerks?

I like how likely voters are 8% undecided, and people who have already cast their ballot are...18% undecided.  Right.

Indies sure hate Jenkins.

[Meeker]

Jenkins has 49% Unfavorable ratings. This race is over

[Adlai Stevenson]

Jenkins has 49% Unfavorable ratings. This race is over

It does look like that - although this is only one poll.  According to SUSA:

Jindal: 64%-20% Favourable

Landrieu: 40%-44% Unfavourable

Kennedy: 47%-17% Favourable


I hope they do a Senate poll soon.

[Mr.Phips]

Jenkins has 49% Unfavorable ratings. This race is over

It does look like that - although this is only one poll.  According to SUSA:

Jindal: 64%-20% Favourable

Landrieu: 40%-44% Unfavourable

Kennedy: 47%-17% Favourable


I hope they do a Senate poll soon.

Its interesting, but there seems to be some permanent dislike for Landrieu in LA-06.  She has lost it in both of her winning Senate races. 

[Brandon H]

I haven't followed the race much.  Why are Cazayoux and Jenkins jerks?

I like how likely voters are 8% undecided, and people who have already cast their ballot are...18% undecided.  Right.

Indies sure hate Jenkins.

Because they are both conservatives and this forum is overwhelmingly liberal.

Also keep in mind there are 5 people on the ballot, so the 8% could also include support for Randall Hayes, Ashley Casey, and Peter Aranyosi.

[Alcon]

Because they are both conservatives and this forum is overwhelmingly liberal.

Hey, man, I'm sure that could be a part of it, but this is LA-6.  Bush got 59%.  Jenkins has a 13-percent approval deficit, and it's 52 points among independents.  There's got to be something about the guy that's unappealing.

[minionofmidas]

Because they are both conservatives and this forum is overwhelmingly liberal.

Hey, man, I'm sure that could be a part of it, but this is LA-6.  Bush got 59%.  Jenkins has a 13-percent approval deficit, and it's 52 points among independents.  There's got to be something about the guy that's unappealing.

Bags. Jenkins is a polarizing figure within the Louisiana Republican Party. Just read the old threads.

[MarkWarner08]

I'm surprised that Republicans deemed this CD solid testing grounds for their "use Obama agaisnt them  this year like they used Gingrich against us in 1996" strategy. Maybe they're operating under the assumption that if Jenkins wins >46% of the vote, then their attacks worked.

Unless Cazayoux has a Francine Busbyesque breakdown the weekend before the election, I can't see how the GOP could be optimistic about holding this seat.

[Sam Spade]

Regardless of who they used, I doubt anyone could save Jenkins.  We'll see.

[MarkWarner08]

This poll raises another question. Why didn't the LA GOP establishment embrace Laurinda Calonge in the runoff?

[minionofmidas]

This poll raises another question. Why didn't the LA GOP establishment embrace Laurinda Calonge in the runoff?

They did (at least mostly). And might have done so more enthusiastically if Jenkins hadn't come quite so close to winning on the first round, ie if they had had any hope of stopping Jenkins.

[Brittain33]

They did (at least mostly). And might have done so more enthusiastically if Jenkins hadn't come quite so close to winning on the first round, ie if they had had any hope of stopping Jenkins.

I wonder how much Jenkins' ownership of a newspaper affected people's willingness to disagree with him.

[Kevinstat]

Any exit poll results?  The polls closed about 10 minutes ago (at the time I originally posted this), assuming Loisianna uses (Central) Daylight Time in the summer.  Otherwise there are about 52 minutes left.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Polls are closed. Here are the results, although we have a little over one thousand votes reporting..

http://electionresults.sos.louisiana.gov/050308state.htm

[HardRCafé]

What was a picayune lead for Jenkins is now an even more picayune lead by Cazayoux.  Obviously, Cazayoux is still favored.

[HardRCafé]

This is a regular tennis match:

1,001    46.26%   "Don" Cazayoux
1,112   51.39%   Louis "Woody" Jenkins

[Kevinstat]

Interesting how numbers were in in the CD-6 race before any precincts had reported, and how that's the case in some parishes now.  Do precincts report results in smaller bundles in Louisiana, or is it likely that all of the precincts that have really reported have reported in full, and the number of precincts reporting listed on the Election Returns Database was/is simply wrong?

[Kevinstat]

Republican "Steve" Scalise kicking butt in CD-1, as expected:

116 16.48% Gilda Reed  - 
579 82.24% "Steve" Scalise  - 
8 1.14% R. A. "Skip" Galan  - 
1 .14% Anthony "Tony G" Gentile

0 of 505 precincts reporting

[Alcon]

Interesting how numbers were in in the CD-6 race before any precincts had reported, and how that's the case in some parishes now.  Do precincts report results in smaller bundles in Louisiana, or is it likely that all of the precincts that have really reported have reported in full, and the number of precincts reporting listed on the Election Returns Database was/is simply wrong?

I'm guessing absentees.

[Kevinstat]

U. S. Representative, 1st Congressional District
34 (6.7%) of 505 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
1,298 27.69% Gilda Reed  - 
3,281 69.99% "Steve" Scalise  - 
75 1.60% R. A. "Skip" Galan  - 
34 .73% Anthony "Tony G" Gentile  - 

U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District
44 (8.6%) of 512 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
5,351 45.03% "Don" Cazayoux  - 
6,125 51.55% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  - 
53 .45% Peter J. Aranyosi  - 
303 2.55% Ashley Casey  - 
50 .42% Randall T. Hayes