2008 State Elections in Austria and Germany

[minionofmidas]

That the combined first and second votes? Nice to see Daxenberger's personal vote in Berchtesgaden, Ernst's pull in and around Schweinfurt, Pauli's lack of a pull in Fürth and Nuremberg, eh...a number of others that I don't know the meaning of...

[minionofmidas]

4-hour Crisis meeting of CSU leadership yesterday. Sec-Gen Christine Haderthauer offers resignation, is refused to because everybody knows how that would be reported ("Huber's right-hand woman already gone - how much longer can he cling on?") Further such crisis meeting scheduled for October 13th, all day. Extraordinary convention scheduled for October 25th - two days before the new Landtag convenes and is expected to elect a pm. Nobody really believes Huber will be party chair after October 25th. Beckstein should (but might not) be able to cling on, depending on the outcome of coalition talks. The CSU wants to hold such talks with both FDP and FW - sending Beckstein, Huber, Seehofer and chair of Landtag parliamentary party Georg Schmid (who's basically demanded Huber's head) to these talks.

[minionofmidas]

Breaking News: Huber's given up.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That the combined first and second votes?

Yes

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I'd been wondering about the high Left numbers there. But what explains their relatively good numbers in the eastern rural areas?

[minionofmidas]

Relative lack of affluence is possibly all behind it. After all, posh Frankfurt suburbia also giuves the Left weaker scores than the rural areas. Besides, anywhere there has traditions of anti-CSU voting (SPD and FDP used to be much stronger in the northeast. BP used to do very well in Lower Bavaria.)

[minionofmidas]

Seehofer will run for Party Chair. I wonder if they'll even find him an opponent.
Whether Huber will stay on at the treasury is unclear, although I'm very much guessing at a no. Beckstein's future is of course wholly unclear - he might be kept on just in order to stop Seehofer. For it seems that as there's a lot of resistance in the Landtag Party to Seehofer taking both jobs. And it's not apparent who else should take Beckstein's job - Schmid? Huber ? Glos could do it, of course. But I'm not sure he would want it, and am actually fairly sure he wouldn't want to fight for it.

[Hash]

Results for Erding and Aufhausen, out of curiosity?

[minionofmidas]

Erding Constituency... first+second

CSU     42,3      -22,9
SPD    13,1    -3,8
GRÜNE    10,0     +3,7
FW    13,1    +11,2
FDP    7,7    +5,6
REP    4,2    +0,8
ödp    3,8    +0,7
LINKE    3,3

Wow. Just wow.

Erding city...

CSU 39.0, SPD 16.5, FW 10.4, Grüne 10.4 (five votes behind), FDP 8.8, ödp 5.3, Linke 4.6, REP 2.2. Had to go the the district's website for that, the state electoral commission site sucks. Two municipalities in the district - Berglern and Isen - won by the FW. Aufhausen is part of the city of Erding, and the term doesn't appear in any precinct address, so I've no idea.

[Middle-aged Europe]

And it's not apparent who else should take Beckstein's job - Schmid? Huber ? Glos could do it, of course. But I'm not sure he would want it, and am actually fairly sure he wouldn't want to fight for it.

You forgot Söder!

If they want to screw up their own party, they should screw up for good. Always those half-hearted attempts...

[minionofmidas]

And it's not apparent who else should take Beckstein's job - Schmid? Huber ? Glos could do it, of course. But I'm not sure he would want it, and am actually fairly sure he wouldn't want to fight for it.

You forgot Söder!

If they want to screw up their own party, they should screw up for good. Always those half-hearted attempts...

On a more serious note, I forgot Herrmann.

[Хahar 🤔]

With whom shall the CSU form a coalition?

[minionofmidas]

FDP, presumably. Although they want to talk with FW as well.

But... right now... well let's just the say that Franz Maget's chances to become Bavaria's next pm after all have risen somewhat over the course of the day.

Beckstein's resigned.

There are THREE official candidates to replace him - Landtag party chair Georg Schmid, home minister Joachim Herrmann, and higher education minister Thomas Goppel.
And if the Landtag party can't decide on one within the next week, Seehofer will throw his hat into the ring. He's said so. - This is pretty clever. Basically, he wants the job but can't afford to be seen as an outsider forcing himself onto the Landtag party (by the Landtag party that is), of which he is no member, having been in federal politics since just about forever. - Still, there's a risk of this four-man pile up ending up damaging Seehofer as well. He might yet get a challenger for party chair...
Meanwhile, the first coalition talks with FDP and FW will still be attended by Beckstein, Huber, Seehofer and Schmid on the CSU side - ie, possibly not by the next state pm (although, obviously, most negotiations will be after things are clearer).
It's certainly conceivable that FDP and FW come to the conclusion that the CSU is currently in no shape to govern. Less than 50% likely, yes. Impossible, no.

[minionofmidas]

Schmid's withdrawn.

[Middle-aged Europe]

And support for Seehofer is growing... claims SPIEGEL ONLINE. They even started to call him "the frontrunner" now.

If those stories are true the next vacant job would be that of the Federal Minister of Agriculture. And it has to be someone from the CSU again, unless Merkel plans a larger cabinet reshuffle.

[minionofmidas]

It seems that it's over, and will be Seehofer. Less than 24 hours before the scheduled vote, both Goppel and Herrmann pulled out.

I see nothing, not even speculation yet, about who will succeed him in the Federal Cabinet.

[minionofmidas]

Latest Forsa poll (remember they tend to have the SPD weaker than their competitors show, and the third parties stronger and the CDU about same)

CDU/CSU 33 (down 4 on previous week)
SPD 27 (up 1)
Left 13 (no change)
FDP 13 (up 2)
Greens 9 (up 1)

Lowest CDU/CSU figure since early 2007.

[minionofmidas]

CSU - FDP gov't in Bavaria seems to be complete.

Hesse will likely finally get a gov't soon too! (SPD - Greens tolerated by Left)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hesse will likely finally get a gov't soon too!

*thud*

[minionofmidas]

Could very well still fail (in several ways), but in that case, at least we'll know for sure.

[Хahar 🤔]

Hesse will likely finally get a gov't soon too! (SPD - Greens tolerated by Left)

Now those sorts of things never seem to work all that well, do they?

[minionofmidas]

We have a treaty draft! And a cabinet list!

Now all it takes is party approval (should be forthcoming) and then the official election by the Landtag (I'm fearing a problem here... which would of course be the most disastrous place for the thing to fail...) And given the formula compromises found, the airport issues (both of them - Frankfurt and Kassel) will be a thorn in the side of the government forevermore.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Andrea Ypsilanti was planning to get confirmed as minister-president tomorrow. Today (and that’s "Breaking News" now), four state parliament members are planning to leave the SPD. Ypsilanti has no majority. The show’s over.

When will Hesse finally get a government and how will it look like? No idea.

[minionofmidas]

Oh well. At least Jürgen Walter is politically dead.

Everts makes sense - represents the southern part of Groß-Gerau district (ie, lots of airport jobs, little airport noise), and has written this misguided book.

I've searched and failed to find any evidence that Tesch might have any political positions.

Meh. Time to hope for new elections I suppose.

[minionofmidas]

Lol. They're holding a press conference right now - and the HR's website is down. Too much traffic?

[minionofmidas]

Yep.

 "Wegen des außergewöhnlich hohen Interesses an den jüngsten Ereignissen in Hessen, kommt es zu technischen Problem bei der Auslieferung unserer Seiten. Wir arbeiten daran und hoffen, dass das Angebot in Kürze wieder erreichbar ist.

Wir bitten um Ihr Verständnis."