2008 State Elections in Austria and Germany

[MaxQue]

Since we saw so many polls of Bavaria, they must be an election soon. When is the next election in Bavaria?

[Tender Branson]

Since we saw so many polls of Bavaria, they must be an election soon. When is the next election in Bavaria?

Together with the Austrian General Elections - on September 28.

[Franzl]

2 new polls for Bavaria

Emnid:

CSU - 51%
SPD - 19%
Greens - 9%
FDP - 7%
The Left - 5%

The Right - 2%
Others - 7%

TNS/Infratest:

CSU - 48%
SPD - 21%
Greens - 11%
FDP - 8%
Freie Wähler - 5%

The Left - 4%
Others - 3%

Bavaria's becoming a real problem....Hope we don't lose the absolute majority.

Although I'd be willing to give that up to keep the Left out....(which doesn't make much sense, mathematically...)

[BenNebbich]

don't you worry to much.

come election day in bavaria we'll see a majority of the pv (> 50%) for the CSU.

I still predict about 53%, because the other parties aren't attractive for bavarian voters.

[Tender Branson]

New poll for Bavaria by Infratest-Dimap:

CSU - 48% (-13)
SPD - 22% (+2)
Greens - 9% (+1)
FDP - 8% (+5)
Freie Wähler - 5% (+1)

The Left - 4% (+4)
Others - 4% (nc)

Uhhhh, the CSU about to lose their 2/3 majority, not to mention the absolute majority ?

Go Left Party ! Just for the wildly amusing impression on Beckstein's and Huber's face when they admit "defeat" on Election Day ...

[Middle-aged Europe]

New poll for Bavaria by Infratest-Dimap:

CSU - 48% (-13)
SPD - 22% (+2)
Greens - 9% (+1)
FDP - 8% (+5)
Freie Wähler - 5% (+1)

The Left - 4% (+4)
Others - 4% (nc)

Uhhhh, the CSU about to lose their 2/3 majority, not to mention the absolute majority ?

Go Left Party ! Just for the wildly amusing impression on Beckstein's and Huber's face when they admit "defeat" on Election Day ...

They certainly won't admit defeat... they're still by far the largest party. That's the first rule on election nights. In Germany, you have "won" the election, if:

1) You are the largest party (even if have you have lost votes/seats and even if you have lost your governing majority).
2) You are in power after the election (even if have you have lost votes/seats and even if you are not the largest party).
3) You have gained votes/seats (even if you are not in power after the election).

That's why virtually every party tends to declare itself the winner after a German election. Everybody wins! And even in defeat, there's victory.

[Hash]

Reminds me of the 2008 by-elections here in Canada. The NDP declared some kind of "victory" too, but they lost votes in most ridings.

[minionofmidas]

New poll for Bavaria by Infratest-Dimap:

CSU - 48% (-13)
SPD - 22% (+2)
Greens - 9% (+1)
FDP - 8% (+5)
Freie Wähler - 5% (+1)

The Left - 4% (+4)
Others - 4% (nc)

Uhhhh, the CSU about to lose their 2/3 majority, not to mention the absolute majority ?

Go Left Party ! Just for the wildly amusing impression on Beckstein's and Huber's face when they admit "defeat" on Election Day ...

They certainly won't admit defeat... they're still by far the largest party. That's first rule on election nights. In Germany, you have "won" the election, if:

1) You are the largest party (even if have you have lost votes/seats and even if you have lost your governing majority).
2) You are in power after the election (even if have you have lost votes/seats and even if you are not the largest party).
3) You have gained votes/seats (even if you are not in power after the election).

That's why virtually every party tends to declare itself the winner after a German election. Everybody wins! And even in defeat, there's victory.

You forgot about how you can also win by not losing as badly as the polls predicted, even though none of your conditions is met.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New poll for Bavaria by Infratest-Dimap:

CSU - 48% (-13)
SPD - 22% (+2)
Greens - 9% (+1)
FDP - 8% (+5)
Freie Wähler - 5% (+1)

The Left - 4% (+4)
Others - 4% (nc)

Uhhhh, the CSU about to lose their 2/3 majority, not to mention the absolute majority ?

Go Left Party ! Just for the wildly amusing impression on Beckstein's and Huber's face when they admit "defeat" on Election Day ...

They certainly won't admit defeat... they're still by far the largest party. That's first rule on election nights. In Germany, you have "won" the election, if:

1) You are the largest party (even if have you have lost votes/seats and even if you have lost your governing majority).
2) You are in power after the election (even if have you have lost votes/seats and even if you are not the largest party).
3) You have gained votes/seats (even if you are not in power after the election).

That's why virtually every party tends to declare itself the winner after a German election. Everybody wins! And even in defeat, there's victory.

You forgot about how you can also win by not losing as badly as the polls predicted, even though none of your conditions is met.

Right.

[Tender Branson]

New Bavaria poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF:

CSU - 50%
SPD - 20%
Greens - 9%
Freie Wähler - 7%
FDP - 6%

The Left - 4%
Others - 4%

...

FW @ 7%. The Pauli-Bounce maybe ?

[BenNebbich]

FW @ 7%. The Pauli-Bounce maybe ?

ha,ha - you are funny!

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to media reports, Frank-Walter Steinmeier will be announced today as the SPD's chancellor-candidate for the 2009 election.

That's a pretty early decision, considering that the election will be held 12 months from now. However, there has been a debate for quite some time now whether Steinmeier or party chairman Kurt Beck should be the next candidate for the chancellorship. The SPD also has been in a pretty bad shape (including bad poll numbers) lately. So, they most likely wanted to put the debate to an end and create some positive headlines for the party. The decision for Steinmeier was undoubtly made because he has a better approval rating than Kurt Beck or any other major SPD politician.

Steinmeier is not exactly a typical career politican. Until he was pushed into the spotlight three years ago he was more of an administrator and a man who works behind the scenes. For example, he has never held an electoral office on federal, state, or local level. In fact, 2009 will be the first time that he runs for a seat in the Bundestag. Steinmeier had started off in the early 90ies as a member of minister-president Gerhard Schröder's personal staff in Lower Saxony. When Schröder became Chancellor, he followed him to Berlin and was eventually appointed Head of the Chancellery (a position comparable to that of the White House Chief of Staff, for example). In 2005 he became foreign minister in Angela Merkel's Grand coalition and last year he was made vice chancellor as well as SPD deputy chairman.

Steinmeier is considered a member of the SPD's right wing. And this will be the first time since 1969 that an incumbent Chancellor is facing off against his/her own foreign minister and vice chancellor.

[minionofmidas]

sacrificial lamb.

That said, he'll do better than Beck would.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Uh, wow... originally it was planned to officially announce Steinmeier as chancellor-candidate today. Now it seems that there has been a major argument within the SPD leadership this morning. A planned press conference was postponed. There are rumours that party chairman Kurt Beck is planning to resign. And just now it was speculated by some journalist that former chairman Franz Müntefering might return to his old job.

Is the Steinmeier nomination part of a larger coup to dispose Kurt Beck who was seen as weak and a liability recently?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, it seems to have been confirmed. SPD chairman Kurt Beck will resign, effective immediately. Foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier will become the chancellor-candidate for the 2009 election. In addition, Steinmeier will also serve as interim chairman of the SPD until a party convention is able to elect Franz Müntefering chairman in a few weeks/months (?).

[minionofmidas]

Man is that party trundling. Sad spectacle, really.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A "slightly" messy way to get rid of a leader, no?

[Middle-aged Europe]

I like the "taz" headlines.


Yesterday: "Münte is Beck" (read: back)

Today: "24 Stunden ohne Rücktritt - SPD stabilisiert" (24 hours without a resignation - SPD stabilized)


Since 2004, we had Franz Müntefering (March '04 to Nov. '05), Matthias Platzeck (Nov. '05 to Apr. '06) and Kurt Beck (Apr. '06 to Sept. '08) as SPD chairmen. Now Müntefering is back. How long will he last? A year maybe?

[Tender Branson]

New GMS poll for the upcoming Bavaria Elections:

CSU: 49%
SPD: 19%
Greens: 11%
FDP: 7%
Freie Wähler: 5%

The Left: 4%
ÖDP: 2%
The Right: 1%
Others: 2%

[minionofmidas]

Bavaria adds list and direct votes together in calculating seat numbers.
While I actually approve of the idea in theory - all those lend-lease list votes elsewhere get on my tits sometimes. And they ensure the survival of the FDP - I wonder both whether Bavarian voters are actually aware of the fact, and whether our pollsters are. Because if they aren't, the CSU is sure to win a majority on these figures.

[Middle-aged Europe]

About one week to go until the Bavaria election.

Recent poll numbers:


Forsa (9/17)
CSU 50%
SPD 19%
Greens 9%
Free Voters 8%
FDP 6%
The Left 4%

Infratest dimap (9/18)
CSU 47%
SPD 21%
Greens 9%
FDP 8%
Free Voters 7%
The Left 4%

FGW (9/19)
CSU 47%
SPD 20%
FDP 9%
Greens 8%
Free Voters 8%
The Left 4%

[Tender Branson]

About one week to go until the Bavaria election.

Recent poll numbers:


Forsa (9/17)
CSU 50%
SPD 19%
Greens 9%
Free Voters 8%
FDP 6%
The Left 4%

Infratest dimap (9/18)
CSU 47%
SPD 21%
Greens 9%
FDP 8%
Free Voters 7%
The Left 4%

FGW (9/19)
CSU 47%
SPD 20%
FDP 9%
Greens 8%
Free Voters 8%
The Left 4%

The beginning of "Alko-Gate" ?

[Middle-aged Europe]

The beginning of "Alko-Gate" ?

These polls were at least partially conducted prior to Beckstein's "beer remarks". Anyway, I don't think that it has such a huge impact... aside from the fact that it adds to the general impression that Beckstein/Huber are weak successors for Edmund Stoiber.

[Franzl]

The beginning of "Alko-Gate" ?

These polls were at least partially conducted prior to Beckstein's "beer remarks". Anyway, I don't think that it has such a huge impact... aside from the fact that it adds to the general impression that Beckstein/Huber are weak successors for Edmund Stoiber.

don't you think the beer remarks might even help Beckstein?

[Tender Branson]

The beginning of "Alko-Gate" ?

These polls were at least partially conducted prior to Beckstein's "beer remarks". Anyway, I don't think that it has such a huge impact... aside from the fact that it adds to the general impression that Beckstein/Huber are weak successors for Edmund Stoiber.

don't you think the beer remarks might even help Beckstein?

Uhm ... No.

Latest poll by GMS for Sat1:

CSU - 48%
SPD - 19%
Greens - 10%
FDP - 7%
Freie Wähler - 7%

The Left - 4%
ÖDP - 1%
The Right - 1%
Others - 3%

...

Plz Left, gain 1 more point !