UK Election 2010

[Harry Hayfield]

I still won't believe that Labour can win until we see that exit poll on election day. I simply can't see how the Tories could steal defeat from the jaws of victory in such a massive way. I'm such a pessimist. Brown should've been the palace in about a week and a half, right?

This is why I adjust every poll I see by the average change during a campaign (since 1950) and then readjust it by the change between the end of the campaign polls, the exit poll and the final result. So far I have Con 38% Lab 28% Lib Dem 17%

By my reckoning there are four dates when Gordon could call the election:

March 25th 2010 (unlikely as Sky would have reported that it's sources would have picked up on the moves in Downing Street)
March 29th 2010 (possible dependent on what reaction the Budget gets on the Sunday morning shows)
April 1st 2010 (very unlikely due to the connections with April Fool's Day but also the Queen would be distributing the Maundy Money and would not like the disruption)
April 6th 2010 (by far the most likely, after Easter and allows him to have a barnstorming PMQ's the following day and to retort to Cameron "I have listened to the honourable gentleman's advice and called the election!")

[Phony Moderate]

I still won't believe that Labour can win until we see that exit poll on election day. I simply can't see how the Tories could steal defeat from the jaws of victory in such a massive way. I'm such a pessimist. Brown should've been the palace in about a week and a half, right?

This is why I adjust every poll I see by the average change during a campaign (since 1950) and then readjust it by the change between the end of the campaign polls, the exit poll and the final result. So far I have Con 38% Lab 28% Lib Dem 17%

By my reckoning there are four dates when Gordon could call the election:

March 25th 2010 (unlikely as Sky would have reported that it's sources would have picked up on the moves in Downing Street)
March 29th 2010 (possible dependent on what reaction the Budget gets on the Sunday morning shows)
April 1st 2010 (very unlikely due to the connections with April Fool's Day but also the Queen would be distributing the Maundy Money and would not like the disruption)
April 6th 2010 (by far the most likely, after Easter and allows him to have a barnstorming PMQ's the following day and to retort to Cameron "I have listened to the honourable gentleman's advice and called the election!")

Why not any of the dates in between those dates?

[Phony Moderate]

March 25th 2010 (unlikely as Sky would have reported that it's sources would have picked up on the moves in Downing Street)

Well, i think we can more or less rule that out now.

[Phony Moderate]

Does anyone have a link to a list of which seats are counting on the next day?

[Јas]

Does anyone have a link to a list of which seats are counting on the next day?

Probably all of them, except Houghton and Sunderland South and a handful of others.

[Harry Hayfield]

Does anyone have a link to a list of which seats are counting on the next day?

Argyll and Bute
Ashfield
Barrow and Furness
Berwick-upon-Tweed
Blyth Valley
Broadland
Buckingham
Central Devon
Central Suffolk and North Ipswich
Cheltenham
Chorley
Cleethorpes
Copeland
Daventry
Derby North
Derby South
Epping Forest
Fylde
Great Grimsby
Great Yarmouth
Harborough
Harrogate and Knaresborough
Henley
Hexham
Huntingdon
Kenilworth and Southam
Kettering
Lancaster and Fleetwood
Mid Bedfordshire
Mid Derbyshire
Mid Norfolk
Milton Keynes North
Milton Keynes South
Morecambe and Lunesdale
Newcastle upon Tyne Central
Newcastle upon Tyne East
Newcastle upon Tyne North
North East Hampshire
North West Leicestershire
North West Norfolk
Northampton North
Northampton South
Norwich North
Oxford West and Abingdon
Preston
Saffron Walden
Selby and Ainsty
Sevenoaks
Skipton and Ripon
South Cambridgeshire
South East Cambridgeshire
South Leicestershire
South Northamptonshire
South West Bedfordshire
South West Hertfordshire
South West Norfolk
St Ives
Tiverton and Honiton
Wansbeck
Wantage
Watford
Waveney
Wellingborough
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Workington

[You kip if you want to...]

The Tories appear to be taking quite a dive on the betting markets.

[Phony Moderate]

It was mentioned on ITV News that Gordon Brown may delay his trip to the Palace by a day.

[You kip if you want to...]

It was mentioned on ITV News that Gordon Brown may delay his trip to the Palace by a day.

...He really is quite the ditherer.

[Silent Hunter]

I still won't believe that Labour can win until we see that exit poll on election day. I simply can't see how the Tories could steal defeat from the jaws of victory in such a massive way. I'm such a pessimist. Brown should've been the palace in about a week and a half, right?

This is why I adjust every poll I see by the average change during a campaign (since 1950) and then readjust it by the change between the end of the campaign polls, the exit poll and the final result. So far I have Con 38% Lab 28% Lib Dem 17%

By my reckoning there are four dates when Gordon could call the election:

March 25th 2010 (unlikely as Sky would have reported that it's sources would have picked up on the moves in Downing Street)
March 29th 2010 (possible dependent on what reaction the Budget gets on the Sunday morning shows)
April 1st 2010 (very unlikely due to the connections with April Fool's Day but also the Queen would be distributing the Maundy Money and would not like the disruption)
April 6th 2010 (by far the most likely, after Easter and allows him to have a barnstorming PMQ's the following day and to retort to Cameron "I have listened to the honourable gentleman's advice and called the election!")

Why not any of the dates in between those dates?

Not sure about the 30th and the 31st, but 2 April is Good Friday and 5 April is Easter Monday, both Bank Holidays.

[Phony Moderate]

Another story to try and reduce the boredom in the run-up to the calling of the election....

My grandad worked for the Inland Revenue, and one of his work colleages in the 1930's (when he was in London) was Jim Callaghan. About 40 years later, when Callaghan was Prime Minister, my grandad was in Ipswich, and he happened to see Callaghan, who was visiting the town. Callaghan remembered my grandad from all those years ago, and they shook hands and had a chat. My grandad was also interviewed by the local newspaper, and they published an article with the headline "Prime Minister meets former work colleage" or something like that.

[afleitch]

I can now imagine Brown will have to wait till after the Easter break and the rail strike to go to the country.

[You kip if you want to...]

I can now imagine Brown will have to wait till after the Easter break and the rail strike to go to the country.

Either way, I, personally, still say he should've gone for an election on March 25th.

[afleitch]

I can now imagine Brown will have to wait till after the Easter break and the rail strike to go to the country.

Either way, I, personally, still say he should've gone for an election on March 25th.

It doesn't help with stunts like the 'pledge card' before an election has been called. It makes Brown look a bit silly.

[afleitch]

A little about declarations.

Sunderland Central would be expected to be first to declare but is currently undecided whether to start the count on Thursday night (Boo!)

The swings in all seats, even that wave of safe Labour seats that declare will be important to monitor. However some of the early key seats may not count until Friday.

The first seat of note to declare may be Angus (2005: 00.56) where the Conservatives are hoping to oust the SNP. Southport (2005: 00.58) is also a key target for the Conservatives needing a 4.7% swing to take it from the Lib Dems. Vale of Clwyd (2005: 00.58) looks like being the first proper Con v Lab fight. The Tories need a swing of 7.1%; close to the national swing needed to secure a majority. East Renfrewshire (2005: 01:01) could be up next where again the Tories are looking to chalk up their first gain in Scotland. Dudley North (2005: 01:10) with a 5.6 swing required could be the seat to watch to see if the Tories are on the course of a majority with Torbay (2005: 01:12) declaring at the same time.

[Meeker]

Why would they wait until Friday to count? General laziness?

[You kip if you want to...]

Why would they wait until Friday to count? General laziness?

It's probably cheaper.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Dudley North is a bit of an oddball though.

[Phony Moderate]

The first seat of note to declare may be Angus (2005: 00.56) where the Conservatives are hoping to oust the SNP.

Nearly 3 hours after the polls close....

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This bit of news doesn't deserve its own thread so... from the BBC...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

LOL

[Barnes]

Have you guys watched the Chancellor's Debate?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8593509.stm (Small clip)

[You kip if you want to...]

Have you guys watched the Chancellor's Debate?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8593509.stm (Small clip)

Yeah. Vince Cable made a brilliant showing. Darling was alright. Osbourne was terrible, as expected.

[Verily]

Have you guys watched the Chancellor's Debate?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8593509.stm (Small clip)

Yeah. Vince Cable made a brilliant showing. Darling was alright. Osbourne was terrible, as expected.

General consensus seems to be that Cable was very good, Darling was mediocre, and Osborne was slightly worse than mediocre but better than expected. Helps the Lib Dems but neutral in the Lab-Con battles, maybe favoring the Cons because this was always going to be the worst debate for them, yet they didn't bomb.

[Barnes]

Have you guys watched the Chancellor's Debate?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8593509.stm (Small clip)

Yeah. Vince Cable made a brilliant showing. Darling was alright. Osbourne was terrible, as expected.

I have the same consensus, really. I think that Osbourne saying "The Liberal Democrats will not form the next government" (or something like that) was a bit unnecessary.

[You kip if you want to...]

Have you guys watched the Chancellor's Debate?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8593509.stm (Small clip)

Yeah. Vince Cable made a brilliant showing. Darling was alright. Osbourne was terrible, as expected.

I have the same consensus, really. I think that Osbourne saying "The Liberal Democrats will not form the next government" (or something like that) was a bit unnecessary.

Yeah, it really was. I think it was probably one of those lines from Tory HQ as they've been trying to make this a straight Con VS Lab fight.

The answer he gave to the student about which one of them could give her a job was just completely smarmy too.