UK Election 2010

[afleitch]

Gordon doesn't have much time for fair play; he'll announce before the Tory Conference if he wants to aware that the 5-5-4 airtime rule kicks in on the BBC News. He's seeking a personal mandate for his personal party. Of course Oct 1st is the day tax on petrol goes up so the headline in the red tops.

However regradles the concern is turnout could dive; it's been two years since the last GE, several months since Scotland and Wales went through a relentless campaign. I'm willing to take time off work and help and I'm sure the same is true of other pary workers but the public may be a bit pissed off.

Problem is the election has been talked up so much I think Gordon will have to go to the country in the next few weeks and hope things won't go tits up.

[Harry Hayfield]

5-5-4 airtime rule? Can you explain what that is please?

[Harry Hayfield]

http://www.boundarycommission.org.uk/provisional-recommendations.asp lists the new constituencies for Northern Ireland (but so far no one has done any calculations on the seats. Is there anyone here could fancies rejigging Northern Ireland 2005?

[Democratic Hawk]

Gordon doesn't have much time for fair play; he'll announce before the Tory Conference if he wants to aware that the 5-5-4 airtime rule kicks in on the BBC News. He's seeking a personal mandate for his personal party

Ahem, it's as much my party as it Gordon's

And here was my thinking that it was Cameron's likeability wherein lay his party's fortunes

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I'd prefer that to be deferred given the recent increases in the price of a barrel of oil [but that's the only reason]

Dave

[Silent Hunter]

5-5-4 airtime rule? Can you explain what that is please?

It's a rule that during General Elections, the airtime for the main parties is divided 5-5-4 (the 4 is the Lib Dems). So, if the Tories get more airtime than normal one day, they lose some later on.

BTW, I saw two "Vote Conservative" signs in Havering today.

[Governor PiT]

I'd like to see a 4 way race between Gordan Brown, David Cameron, Mayor Livingston, and Nick Griffin.

[Verily]

I'd like to see a 4 way race between Gordan Brown, David Cameron, Mayor Livingston, and Nick Griffin.

Pray tell, who are "Gordan Brown" and "Ken Livingston"?

[Hash]

I'd like to see a 4 way race between Gordan Brown, David Cameron, Mayor Livingston, and Nick Griffin.

Enlighten me on which party Mayor Livingston founded.

[Democratic Hawk]

I'd like to see a 4 way race between Gordan Brown, David Cameron, Mayor Livingston, and Nick Griffin.

Enlighten me on which party Mayor Livingston founded.

As far as I'm aware, he never founded any party. He was formerly the Labour leader of the Greater London Council, but that was abolished. He then became Labour MP for Brent East (1987). When London got an directly elected executive Mayor, he was snubbed by Labour in favour of Frank Dobson, but went on to win as an Independent. He, subsequently, was rehabilitated into the Labour fold.

He is a somewhat larger than life, controversial character; much like Boris Johnson, the Conservative MP, who is the party's candidate in next May's mayoral election

You could be confusing Ken with George Galloway, yet another larger than life controversial character, who founded RESPECT after being expelled from the Labour Party

Dave

[Verily]

I'd like to see a 4 way race between Gordan Brown, David Cameron, Mayor Livingston, and Nick Griffin.

Enlighten me on which party Mayor Livingston founded.

As far as I'm aware, he never founded any party. He was formerly the Labour leader of the Greater London Council, but that was abolished. He then became Labour MP for Brent East (1987). When London got an directly elected executive Mayor, he was snubbed by Labour in favour of Frank Dobson, but went on to win as an Independent. He, subsequently, was rehabilitated into the Labour fold.

He is a somewhat larger than life, controversial character; much like Boris Johnson, the Conservative MP, who is the party's candidate in next May's mayoral election

You could be confusing Ken with George Galloway, yet another larger than life controversial character, who founded RESPECT after being expelled from the Labour Party

Dave

It was a sarcastic response to the suggestion that there could be a four-way race between Cameron (Conservative), Brown (Labour), Livingstone (also Labour) and Griffin (OMRLP... err... BNP).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just for the record, Ken Livingstone is a member of the same political party as Gordon Brown. They even had a photo-op taken together at the Labour conference. They don't actually like each other, but politics is politics.

[Silent Hunter]

Is it me, or does David Cameron seem like a turkey voting for Christmas?

[afleitch]

Is it me, or does David Cameron seem like a turkey voting for Christmas?

You mean calling for a GE? Well he's consistent (unlike Brown) in that regard; he's backed a GE throughout good times and bad since Blairs plans to step down were announced last year. While I don't feel there is a need for GE, I am confident we can obliterate Browns majority. The polls are very volatile and the day in day out, on the cuff spotlight during a campaign suits Cameron to a tee.

Besides, I'm sure if Brown did go and got his majority wiped out, it's probably the biggest knock to his credibility and ego that could possibly happen.

[Silent Hunter]

Yeah, but he did seem pretty quiet about it over the summer.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cameron has little choice but to call for an autumn elections; he's bound by his previous statements. I would be surprised if he actually wants an early election, but he would look very silly (and worse; afraid) if he recanted.
Regardless, while a Tory majority would be very unlikely, Labour might lose its majority if things don't turn out as planned. It's not an ideal situation for him, but it's not really political suicide.

But Campbell calling for an autumn election (and like Cameron he has little choice as a result of things said earlier) is just funny.

[Democratic Hawk]

Autumn election? Dark nights, miserable frickin' weather. Ughhhhhhhhhhhhh.

Dave

[afleitch]

On the plus side I have some spare annual leave and flexi I can use if there's a 'snap' election. Likelyhood is I could be bussed down south. No doubt Corby

[Harry Hayfield]

If you're looking for Con targets near you, then might I make the following suggestions:

Number 30: Perth and Perthshire North Con swing to gain: 1.66%
Number 41: Angus Con swing to gain: 2.10%
Number 55: Dumfries and Galloway Con swing to gain: 2.87%
Number 85: Edinburgh South Con swing to gain: 4.56%
Number 96: Ochil and Perthshire South Con swing to gain: 4.95%
Number 106: Stirling Con swing to gain: 5.46%
Number 126: Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Con swing to gain: 6.50%
Number 128: Argyll and Bute Con swing to gain: 6.52%
Number 141: Renfrewshire East Con swing to gain: 7.02%

Knock all those out and Cameron has a majority of 52

[afleitch]

If you're looking for Con targets near you, then might I make the following suggestions:

Number 30: Perth and Perthshire North Con swing to gain: 1.66%
Number 41: Angus Con swing to gain: 2.10%
Number 55: Dumfries and Galloway Con swing to gain: 2.87%
Number 85: Edinburgh South Con swing to gain: 4.56%
Number 96: Ochil and Perthshire South Con swing to gain: 4.95%
Number 106: Stirling Con swing to gain: 5.46%
Number 126: Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Con swing to gain: 6.50%
Number 128: Argyll and Bute Con swing to gain: 6.52%
Number 141: Renfrewshire East Con swing to gain: 7.02%

Knock all those out and Cameron has a majority of 52

Perth and Perthshire North - SNP hold
Angus - SNP hold
Dumfries and Galloway - LAB hold (contains the town of Dumfries - put two and two together)
Edinburgh South - A possible gain actually with a depression in the Lib Dem vote and a local campaign.
Ochil and Perthshire South - SNP gain
Stirling - Odd one this, as it was in May. Possible SNP gain.
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk - CON gain - and a kick in the gut for the Lib Dems
Argyll and Bute - SNP challenge here, Lib Dems hang on.
Renfrewshire East - Labour hold

[Democratic Hawk]

On the plus side I have some spare annual leave and flexi I can use if there's a 'snap' election. Likelyhood is I could be bussed down south. No doubt Corby

You'll be voting SNP

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Dumfries and Galloway - LAB hold (contains the town of Dumfries - put two and two together)

Would I be right in thinking that Stranraer has always had a significant Labour vote but many voted tactically for the SNP in the old Galloway and Upper Nithsdale constituency?

Dave

[afleitch]

On the plus side I have some spare annual leave and flexi I can use if there's a 'snap' election. Likelyhood is I could be bussed down south. No doubt Corby

You'll be voting SNP

Dave

In Rutherglen and Hamilton West? More than likely Tory as I did last time as it's a Labour hold regardless. Lib Dems came in second (my old student union president stood for them, which made me ponder a little) I will judge how the SNP are performing during the campaign. If theres a significant enough swing in their favour i'll give them my vote.

Of course unless the election is very soon I could be living elsewhere

I'd like to trave but I have a feeling I'd be asked to stomp around Eastwood East Renfrewshire or DC&T which isn't too far away. Either way I'll probably be asked to do the fairly working class areas after quiet a good reception last time.

[afleitch]

Dumfries and Galloway - LAB hold (contains the town of Dumfries - put two and two together)

Would I be right in thinking that Stranraer has always had a significant Labour vote but many voted tactically for the SNP in the old Galloway and Upper Nithsdale constituency?

Dave

Pretty much. Tactical voting and a minor swing should easily allow the Conservatives in. But Dumfries proper comes out in force in Labour more so in recent races. It did in the Dumfries seat in May when it was expected Tory gain but Labour held the seat. Tory voting areas of that seat are in DC&T.

EDIT - Expect a battle to unseat Alistair Darling in Edinburgh SW. 8.2 swing needed, but easier if there is a little tactical voting,

[Democratic Hawk]

Two polls (Sunday, 30 September):

Ipsos-MORI/The Observer, completed 28 Sep  (changes on Ipsos-MORI, The Sun, 22 Sep)

LAB 41% (-1) / CON 34% (n/c) / LDEM 16% (+2)

BPIX, Mail on Sunday, completed 29 Sep (changes on BPIX, Mail on Sunday, 9 Sep 2006 )

LAB 41% (+11) / CON 34% (-6) / LDEM 12% (-2)

Dave

[Ben.]

On the plus side I have some spare annual leave and flexi I can use if there's a 'snap' election. Likelyhood is I could be bussed down south. No doubt Corby

The great thing about Corby and East Northants is that you can split your time between places like Oundle out in the county and then the Lloyds estate in central Corby, all good fun and games and in November it'll all be about turnout IMHO.